Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Max Pacioretty

The final player to be previewed is #39, freshman Max Pacioretty. And I apologize to Max if this one seems a little rushed, because honestly, it is.

Last Season: Pacioretty made the most out of his one and only USHL season, scoring 21-42--63 in 60 games. He had a +20 rating and posted 119 PIMs. His point total was good for second on the team and 10th in the league (3 points behind future teammate Aaron Palushaj). He also had 4 goals and 6 assists in just seven playoff games.

He was given the USHL's Rookie of the Year award and played in the USHL All-Star game. He's in pretty good company by winning the ROY trophy. Other winners include Kyle Okposo, Joe Pavelski, Brandon Bochenski and Danny Richmond.

Expectations: Pacioretty went from unknown--to us Westerners--prep school hockey player to USHL phenom, to first round NHL Draft Pick and status as the jewel of this recruiting class. While most of the players appear to be 3 or 4 year guys, Pacioretty is likely not. Enjoy him while he's here, folks.

He'll be playing on the top line with Porter and Kolarik right from the get-go, which should probably plenty of scoring opportunities. He's big (6'2" 203), strong, physical, not afraid to hit and muck in the corners, nice wrist shot, decent defensive player, and apparently he's a surprisingly good passer.

In his pre-draft profiles, his passing was often cited as a major plus for him. He was Max Giese's #5 "play-maker" available. He's also apparently a good faceoff guy, which has me kind of wondering if he won't end up playing center, should it become evident that Porter is more comfortable on the wing.

Central Scouting used the word "supple" to describe his hands, which is pretty awesome. I'm expecting that ESPNU announcer to leave me a comment saying that that's kinda gay.

He has the size to be a prototypical power forward, but Giese came out and said "He's not a power forward", so I guess that'll be a work in progress as he learns to better use his size.

He'll be on the top line and the power play, and with his talent, I think a point total in the high 30s is very possible. I don't know that he'll get over a ppg. We've only had a handful of freshmen do that in the recent past, but he'll be right there.

And I like him because he said Jed Ortmeyer is his favorite player and who he models his game after. Can't pick a better guy than that!

Level of Necessity: 8 out of 10.

Again, he looks to be a 2 year guy. He's going to come in and have an impact on this team and he should look really nice playing with Porter and Kolarik. I expressed concern that there might not be enough pucks to go around on that line, but if he's as good of a playmaker as everyone seems to think, he might be the perfect compliment since those guys are both used to getting the puck on their stick.

Parting Thoughts: I really gotta get going here, but it seems that this is going to be another roller-coaster ride. If it's not enough that we'll have to expect ups and downs from our dozen freshmen, we've also got a shaky goaltending situation to deal with. Some games, it will all come together. We'll score goals, the defense will be good, and Sauer (or Hogan) will have a good game. There's a ton of talent on this team.

But on the nights when the defense and goaltending aren't good, it's going to be a flashback to last year--only without the nation's leading offense to bail us out. I expect the offense will still be good, but it would take an awful lot to match last year's scoring total--even though I think we're deeper up front that last year, just without those elite forwards like we've had in the past.

I still expect a pretty good season. It'll be fun watching all these young, talented players grow. If this team can learn to play solid defense and we get NCAA-caliber netminding, they can contend for a title. Those are big ifs though, and I think it's more likely that we'll be on the tournament bubble for most of the season. Whether we make it or not is going to come down to the goaltending.

With that said, I'm off to St. Paul. I hope you've all enjoyed reading these previews, because it's probably never happening again. I hope I haven't come across as too big of a homer--or a complete idiot--in the process.

GO BLUE!

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Billy Sauer

The next-to-last stop on this tour through the 2007-08 Wolverines is the starting goalie, junior Billy Sauer.

Last Season: The 06-07 season was an adventure in net. The closest analogy that I can find to describe Billy Sauer's play would be to look at Chicago Bears quarterback Rex Grossman. People starting referring to his outings (and at times, even his individual passes) as "Good Rex showing up" or "Bad Rex showing up".

We had a similar situation in Ann Arbor. Sometimes it was Good Billy, and sometimes it was Bad Billy. You just never knew, and when Bad Billy was in town, the results weren't pretty.

There were times when he was really, really good. He had 35 saves in the CCHA Championship Game against Notre Dame, but it's only the weak goal he let in for the game-winner that gets remembered.

Other times, however, it was simply stunning how a Division I goalie could be so bad. Over a pair of games in early December, he gave up 10 goals on just 33 shots, which paved the way for the one start Steve Jakiel made in a Michigan uniform. 5 goals in the first 21 minutes of the game against North Dakota couldn't hold up for the game, let alone the first 25 minutes, and by the halfway point in the game, we were facing an unbelievable 7-5 deficit.

If you look at the game-by-game breakdown, the streaks were amazing: Early in the year, he gave up 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 6 over a six game span. He then followed that up by going 2, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1. Then it was right back to being Bad Billy with a streak of 3, 8, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4 before a seven game stretch where he gave up more than two goals on just one occasion. But then he gave up 2 or less just three times over the next ten games.

Down the stretch, he was actually quite good. His mother sat next to me during a game late in the season and I commented that he was playing well, and I wasn't lying. Apart from a six goal bobble at OSU, he played fairly good goal: 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 6, 1, 3, 2, 2, in the lead-up to the North Dakota debacle.

But for the season, the numbers weren't pretty. Sauer had a 3.03 goals against average with an .896 save percentage. That's simply not good enough. Some of that is on the defense, no doubt. But there were far too many occasions where weak goals, untimely goals, or simply too many goals doomed us. 13 out of the 40 times he played, the opposition scored 4 goals or more. Not even the best offense in the country is going to be able to overcome numbers like that.

One of the most telling stats is that the Wolverines were just 4-11-1 when scoring 3 goals or less, and they were still under .500 when scoring exactly three times. We didn't have the ability to win the low-scoring games, which put a ton of pressure on the offense. You can't expect a team to score four goals a night in order to win.

For all the cracks that I make--and I'm trying to be better about that this year--I really don't think he's the worst goalie in history. He's big, he's athletic, he's good about finding the puck in traffic. The big weaknesses in his game are that he's very vulnerable high on the glove side, and that he doesn't really show the ability to bounce back from a bad goal or a bad game (as the streaks indicate).

Expectations: My expectation was that at this point he'd either be backing up Bryan Hogan or splitting time. But with Hogan's illness that isn't to be, and thus Sauer will get one more chance to prove himself worthy of being the starting goalie for the Michigan Wolverines.

I'm scared. He's never proven to be mentally tough, and I'm worried about how he's going to respond to giving up a slew of goals to North Dakota last year, and having his coach not give him a vote of confidence in the offseason. Playing Boston College and potentially Minnesota right out of the gate, before going on the road for six of the first eight conference games, and a home series against Boston University isn't exactly easing back into it. If he's not on his game--if he can't bounce back--this season is going to get ugly before Bryan Hogan is even back to full health.

It's so hard to know what to expect. Players improve. Sauer strung together some very solid performances last year. And--this is possibly the most important thing--he's still only 19 years old. Coming in as a freshman, he hadn't played very much hockey. He split time in the USHL for one year and was only 3 years removed from playing JV hockey when he became the starting goalie for Michigan.

And all it would take is a little consistency. I've commented to several people that I'd be happy to take Josh Blackburn numbers because you knew what you were getting. He was right around the .905 mark every season. Never especially great, but never horrible either. I can count on one hand the number of times I uttered "Dammit, Blackburn" in the two years I watched him play. I'd much rather have a guy like that than someone who is up and down from week to week. One extra save every four games is all that it would have taken for Sauer to be at a .905, but it's the consistency that really matters. And if he can achieve that, then this team will be in the mix for the CCHA.

As bad as he's been at times, he's not that far off from being the goalie that we need.

Level of Necessity: 10 out of 10.

I have to list him as a 10 as well. As I said in Hogan's profile, we need a goalie. And to be perfectly honest, I'd be happier than a pig in shit if the Billy Sauer that skates out of that tunnel tonight is the Billy Sauer that played out of his mind against BC two years ago in his first collegiate start.

As much as I've hyped up Hogan, I would be perfectly fine if he got healthy and never played a game, because it would mean that Sauer has finally become that kid who was at one time the #4 rated North American goalie and had an outside chance at being a first round selection. The talent is there.

This is his last chance. If Hogan is at all a good goalie, Sauer would be wise to not start this year on a bad note. He was given a reprieve with Hogan's illness and he needs to make the most of this chance.

The tean is going to be hard-pressed to match last year's goal totals (though I don't think they'll be super far off it). But the safety net is going away. We aren't going to give him 25 occurrences of scoring 4+ goals, so we damn well better be above .500 when we put 3 up or it's going to be trouble.

At least in theory, the team defense should be better this season, as it appears they're making a concerted effort to improve that area of the game. We need the goalie to be better. It doesn't matter who is it, but we need the goalie to be better. If he's not, then the consecutive years in the tournament streak could be in serious jeopardy.

Other Stuff: Red Berenson talked with CSTV on Tuesday and answered fan questions. There's nothing earth-shattering in the interview, but he does express optimism that Sauer will put it all together this season. It was a much more positive answer than he's typically given when asked about our goaltending.

Tomorrow morning, we look at Max Pacioretty, I make some final thoughts, and then the puck drops officially on the 2007-08 season.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Bryan Hogan

The second goalie to be previewed is freshman Bryan Hogan:

Last Season: After a strong first season with the Lincoln Stars when he posted a 22-12-4 record with a 2.50 GAA and a .916 save percentage and played well enough that the Stars traded Jakiel, Hogan struggled somewhat last year.

His record was still very good (27-13-3) but his GAA (3.04) and save percentage (.889) probably weren't what he was hoping for. Still, he comes in with the experience that Billy Sauer didn't get, due to Al Montoya leaving school to turn pro. Hogan took a team to the state championship in Michigan, and has 81 USHL decisions under his belt. He should be much more prepared to come in and play.

Expectations: All offseason, Red Berenson talked about how this team needs to be better in goal, and that heading into the Fall, the starting goaltender position was up for grabs. Like a lot of Michigan fans out there, I was hopeful that Hogan would come into camp, play like the guy that put up great numbers two years ago, and solidify our situation in net.

And then came disaster.

Mono. When I heard the news, it was a lucky break that there were no sharp objects within reach. The string of profanities that came out of my mouth at that moment was perhaps only matched by Ralphie's father in A Christmas Story.

What does that do to Hogan's chances of playing this season? It's hard to say. Bare minimum, I have to believe that he's out until late October or early November. After he's cleared to get back on the ice, how long will it take him to regain his stamina? I had mono my senior year in high school and it knocked me out for pretty much the whole summer. These guys are in much better shape than I was. I don't know if that has an effect on the recovery period.

But that doesn't even take into consideration the fact that Hogan is missing all sorts of practice time right now; time where he could be impressing the coaches and stating his case for the starting job. Will it be tougher to earn playing time mid-season? I guess it depends on Sauer's play.

When Mike Cammalleri came down with the disease a few years back, he missed 10 games (and he skated for a good three weeks before he was ready to play again). I imagine the period of time off is longer for a goalie due to the nature of the position. If your spleen is enlarged, it's probably not the best idea for people to shoot pucks at you.

Had he been healthy, I've got every confidence that Hogan would've been starting a game this weekend in St. Paul. If he didn't earn the job outright, he would be splitting time, as Berenson has hinted that that method might help Sauer as well. As it is, I wouldn't expect to see him until after the College Hockey Showcase. He might be ready to get back on the ice in early November, but unless Sauer is absolutely tanking, I doubt they throw him right into the fire.

After that, it's anyone's guess, because Hogan's playing time also will depend heavily on Sauer's performance. The coaches were willing to open it up to competition, but with Hogan's illness, that went out the window. Now Sauer will get the chance to earn the job while Hogan recuperates. If he can play well consistently, we probably won't see a ton of Hogan. If he continues to struggle, I imagine they'll start by splitting time, and then the better goalie will take over for the stretch run.

Level of Necessity: 10 out of 10.

There's no recruit more important to this team. We need a goalie. The defense was partially at fault for the debacle of last season, but we can't go on like that. The inconsistent play in net pretty much undermined the highest scoring team in the country and led to another first round exit.

I think we're going to score goals this season. Likely not as many as last year, but that's ok, as long as we get some quality play out of our netminder. When you score 5 goals in the first 21 minutes of a hockey game, you shouldn't only have a one goal lead. You certainly shouldn't find yourself trailing twenty-five minutes into the game.

The talk coming from the team is that they're going to try and make a strong commitment to playing team defense this year. If that is actually put into practice, we need our goaltender to step up and make some saves. I don't care if it's Billy Sauer, Bryan Hogan, or Shawn Hunwick, but someone needs to do it.

And I've got the most confidence is Hogan. Which scares me because I've never seen him play.

Here's how he described his own play in "Checking In":

» On his strengths and style as a goalie ... "I really like the battle. I like loose pucks and rebounds. Another thing I do is come out further from the goal to cut down on angles. A lot of people are surprised that I come out really far, but it just gives me a little bit of extra advantage. Then also I love to play the puck. I like a hybrid style where you use butterfly and you also use half-splits and a combination of other things. I like to be athletic and then be technically sound. It’s something I hope shooters can’t find a pattern to."

Whatever works for him. Practice reports before his illness have indicated that he really isn't kidding when he says he comes far out of the net to cut down the angle.

2 more to go. Look for Billy Sauer's preview before I go to bed tonight and Max Pacioretty's in the morning before I head out for St. Paul.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Tristin Llewellyn

The last defenseman of this year's installment of the Michigan Wolverines is freshman Tristin Llewellyn.

Last Season: Llewellyn had a breakout year offensively, scoring 3-16--19 in 53 games for the Tri-City Storm of the USHL. He had just 18 points in the two previous seasons combined. He was a +3 and had a whopping 165 PIMs, good for sixth in the league. He also had 96 shots on goal, which was a career high. He was honored with an appearance in the USHL All-Star Game.

The playoffs didn't go nearly as well. He had 0 points and was -5 in nine playoff games, with 12 PIMs and 31 shots on goal, which seems really high.

Expectations: When Llewellyn committed to the Wolverines, seemingly 10 years ago, he was thought of as one of the top players in his age group. Since then, expectations have tempered significantly. His development stagnated, in part (I assume) because he spent three years playing in the USHL. A change of scenery might do him a world of good, and hopefully some of the player that was once thought of as a very high draft pick will come through. As it was, he was listed as an "A" player by Central Scouting at one time, and he was on Max Giese's list as a mid-to-late round selection (97th on his list), but ended up getting passed over. Here's what Giese had to say about him in the leadup to the draft:

97. D Tristin Llewellyn, 6-1 195, 5-2-1989, Tri-City USHL
++ Physical defensive game, confidence
+ Character, untapped upside
- Decision making without the puck.

At one point Tristin was a phenom in the American Hockey system as a possible top 5 pick in this years draft as he was playing in the USHL at the age of 15. Playing against players up to five years older then himself stunted Tristin’s development and now he’s a mid to late round pick. He likes to stand up his man at the blue and for the most part does an effective job but he does caught flat footed every now and then, as he can be beaten to the outside. He usually maintains a tight gap and takes the proper angle to his man before standing him up with a nice body check. Can get too aggressive seeking the open ice hit but that presence he brings is a plus. Skating is in need of improvement as he lacks that initial burst forwards or backwards and his turns are a bit choppy although his feet are adequate. His composure with the puck has improved and he makes a strong first pass. He makes good decisions with the puck for the most part but his decision making without the puck is the question mark. He uses a long stick and has adequate hands and escape moves. He was sensing danger better by the end of the season. He possesses a heavy shot but he must improve his shot selection as he’ll force shots into traffic.

As I said in my article in the lead-up to the draft, it scares me a bit that he forces shots into traffic but doesn't have an initial burst. We'd be wise to pair him with someone that has speed unless we want some breakaways going the other way. But apart from Mitera, all our other defensemen have jets so it shouldn't be a problem. I would expect to see him on the second pairing with Chris Summers.

He's not going to be a huge offensive threat. He had just 37 points in 142 career USHL games, though he was around a point every three games last year. He's mainly a defensive defenseman. He hits a lot of people--too many at times, it seems--and is actually a good skater. He made a positive first-impression in the exhibition game. After signing day, Billy Powers compared him to a smaller Mark Mitera.

I'd say he'll have right around 10 points as a freshman. That's what Mitera ended up with, and playing with Chris Summers (if that keeps up) should lead to quite a few second-assist opportunities.

Level of Necessity: 6.5 out of 10

It's looking more and more like he'll be a top-four defenseman on this team--at least in terms of where he's paired. While guys like Quick, Vaughan and Langlais will be counted on to replace some of the points lost with Hunwick and Johnson leaving, Llewellyn's role will more likely be to replace the physicality lost with Jason Dest's graduation.

He's a guy that kind of flies under the radar because he wasn't draft. Where there are questions about the talent level that Quick and Vaughan have faced, there's nothing of the sort with Llewellyn. He has a ton of experience playing in a top Junior league. He's been in the USHL since he was 15 years old. And again, the fact that he's got some speed (even if he doesn't have a great first step) will allow him to cover up at least some of his freshman mistakes.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Shawn Hunwick

The first of the goalies numerically is #31, freshman Shawn Hunwick.

Last Season: Hunwick played for the Alpena IceDiggers of the NAHL and posted a 17-9-2 record with a 3.06 GAA and a .904 save percentage. He was speaking with schools such as Northern Michigan and Holy Cross before he was injured during a rapid-fire drill. After the injury, the teams he was talking to backed off due to his history of concussions. He was all set to go to Adrian College--a Division III school--until Steve Jakiel left school.

Hunwick also won a state championship with Victory Honda a couple of years ago, and put up outstanding numbers in the process. He's also yet another Wolverine who has previously played for Detroit Honeybaked.

Expectations: I expect him to be the third goalie, but with Hogan's illness and Sauer's problem with not stopping the puck, the goalie position has been listed as wide open. Unfortunately, Shawn came down with an illness before the Blue/White game and didn't get into the Western Ontario game, so he hasn't had a chance to show what he can do in game action.

He'll be the backup until Hogan is well again, but I don't expect him to see a lot of playing time.

It is fair to point out that, despite lesser competition, he did have the best save percentage last year out of all three of our goalies.

Level of Necessity: 3 out of 10.

Probably a higher rating than your typical third-goalie would normally get because there's so much of an unknown at that position. I don't expect him to play, but if the other two falter and he shows something in practice, you never know what can happen.

If nothing else, maybe shooting on a shorter goalie (Hunwick is 5'7") in practice will help them better prepare for Jeff Lerg.

Other Stuff: Jack Johnson had his first career NHL point tonight.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Louie Caporusso

If there's one thing that Michigan is good at, it's landing very talented Italian-Canadian forwards. And the newest one is the next player previewed, Louie Caporusso. It seems impossible not to like this kid. He's a great interview...every answer is exactly the attitude that I want to see in a hockey player.

Last Season: Caporusso led the St. Michael's Buzzers in scoring with a 23-27--50 line in 37 games. If that wasn't enough, he posted an incredible 14-19--33 line in 20 playoff games. He was also the Eastern Player of the Game in the Canadian Junior A Prospects Game.

He was picked in the third round by the Ottawa Senators, whose top scout was "adamant" that the team draft him.

Expectations: He's a kid that I'm excited about. He's drawn comparisons to a more offensive-minded Andrew Ebbett or a slower version of Andrew Cogliano. Not to say he doesn't have speed, but Cogliano was kind of a freak in that regard.

His line--he, Turnbull, and Hagelin--was outstanding over the weekend, combining for 17 points and a +16 rating. Practice reports had indicated that he and Hagelin seemed to work pretty well together, and it has carried over into the exhibition season.

Everything I've read indicates that he's a pretty solid all-around player. Good skater, good stick-handler, good shot, good forechecker, responsible defensively, and a good faceoff guy (he won 16 out of 18 in the Blue/White game, including a few against Matt Rust).

The one downer is that he's had some pesky injuries the past couple of seasons. He's not that big (5'10" 185), but hopefully he can avoid the injury bug this season because he looks to be a productive 2nd/3rd line center.

He's not as highly regarded as Cogliano was coming in, but he should be a productive player in his freshman season. "Drew Cogs" had 28 points his freshman season, but was pretty ineffective after the World Junior Championships. Depending on how the power play units shake themselves out, Caporusso could--and probably should--at least approach those numbers. Especially if his line plays as well in the season as they have thusfar.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10

This team is going to have to score by committee. There's no TJ Hensick coming to save us and put up close to 70 points. I don't see the third line of this team being your typical "Grind Line". The third line needs to be a scoring line. It doesn't mean they can't be good defensively as well, but they're going to have to put the puck in the net if we're going to win hockey games.

Louie is another one of those guys that I believe with gain the confidence of the coaches enough that they will feel comfortable playing him in most situations. He seems to have developed instant-chemistry with Carl Hagelin, and chemistry is important when you're trying to blend a dozen new faces into the lineup.

And he's another guy that can win faceoffs. Since we don't yet know if Porter can, it's nice to know that we've got two guys on the roster that should be capable-at-worst at it in Caporusso and Rust.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Kevin Quick

I really need to pick up the pace--or move more quickly (see what I did there?)--if I'm going to finish all these before the first game. Next up is #27, freshman defenseman Kevin Quick.

Last Season: Finding anything out about some of these prep school players beyond their stats is a bit tedious, but Quick had a goal and ten assists and was +26 in 25 games for Salisbury Prep. That was a major dip from the year before when he posted a 3-20--23 line in 28 games, with a +45 rating, but in his Checking In interview, Quick attributed the dropoff in points to his team being less defensively sound, so he had to reign it in on the offensive side a little bit.

Expectations: As a 2006 third-round draft pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning, perhaps my expectations from the outset were a little bit higher than they should be. In past interviews, Red Berenson has pointed out that Quick might have a bigger adjustment period due to the fact that he's coming from prep hockey rather than the USHL.

The Lightning wanted him to play in the USHL, but Quick had made a commitment to Salisbury that he didn't want to break. He did, however, take their advice that he should probably find some tougher competition than the ECAC would allow.

That said, I fully expect him to play, and to be a good defensemen for us eventually. Everything I've read throughout his recruitment points to him as a solid two-way defenseman. He's able to jump up into the play, but he's also responsible in his own end. And apparently his skating ability will lead to many oh-so-clever puns with his last name.

In Bob Miller's observations from the Western Ontario game, he wrote the following about Quick:

Quick - After a nearly invisible first period, Quick showed some of the skating and offensive ability he was reputed to bring to the team. Still will need a lot of work in the d-zone, but his quick (sorry, couldn't come up with a more fitting description) jump to offense produced a couple of scoring chances. He really needs experience at the higher level he'll be subjected to this year. Expect some growing pains with potentially big benefit/production at some point, although likely not this season.

I guess the good news is that his speed will allow him to cover for at least some of the inevitable freshman mistakes that he'll make. From the sounds of it, he's a prime candidate for the "most improved" award from his freshman to sophomore seasons. A year in the USHL could have probably helped him, but now he'll have to learn on the job.

I wouldn't expect a big year out of him in terms of points. How well he does--and how much ice time he gets--will almost entirely depend on how quickly he's able to adjust to the college game.
He clearly has the tools to be a very good player.

Level of Necessity: 6 out of 10

I suppose I'm lucky that his number is 27 and not 2, because this rating would have likely been higher had I written this preview before the hockey coverage around the net kicked into full gear. It was hard to not get excited based on what I gathered in doing my Looking Ahead preview. All the draftniks loved him, apparently Tampa management is very high on him, and he's been compared to guys like Brian Campbell and Jack Johnson. It sounds like his talent level is off the chart, and once he gets some experience playing at the college level, he's going to be a very good player. But it seems at this point, I'd be wise to temper my expectations somewhat for this first year.

He'll still play, but at this point I have him pegged more as a third-pairing guy who doesn't see all that much time on the special teams (early reports have Kevin Porter on the point for one of the power play units). It wouldn't shock me if he eventually saw time on the power play, because it sounds as if the big adjustment for him is going to come in our end of the ice.

Other Stuff: After updating the Hockey Hotboard last week, The Wolverine continued their new "Recruiting Wednesdays" feature, with an article about Derek Lee, uber-recruit from the BCHL. He sounds like a really great kid--he apologized repeatedly for taking awhile to respond to the interview request because he was out of town, and he stated a desire to commit quickly so that the other schools won't be hung out to dry.

He seems to have a good relationship with ex-teammate and current Wolverine Ben Winnett. He didn't cite a leader, but based on what I've read elsewhere, it sounds as if Wisconsin is the team to beat. He hasn't visited Michigan yet, so we'll get our chance to make an impression. I've lived in both cities. I really do like Madison, but it's not Ann Arbor. Hopefully Lee will end up agreeing.

Red gives his first impressions of the team to The Wolverine ($ link). One thing that came out in that interview is that Chad Kolarik has earned an "A". It's nice to see that. We only had two players wearing letters, and as one of only two seniors, it seems right for him to have one. Sometimes cementing a player into a leadership role and giving him more responsibility can aid his own play. I like the move.

Mike Spath and Bob Miller will also be updating the Hockey Hot Board today or tomorrow, and we'll apparently get to find out the name of a new goalie target. Please let it be a good one.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Danny Fardig

Continuing on, we get to Michigan's own version of the Little Ball of Hate, Danny Fardig.

Last Season: Fardig continued to do what he does best. Skating around the ice like a mad man, hitting everyone in sight, forechecking, killing penalties, blocking shots, and chipping in with points every now and then.

In 41 games, he put up just 2 goals and 4 assists, was +5 and had 36 PIMs (which isn't bad at all considering the amount of hitting he does and the fact that 10 of those minutes came via a misconduct).

He plays a role, and he does it really well. The one thing that he doesn't do well: Faceoffs. I have no data to back this up, but I'm pretty sure that winning under a third of the 230 faceoffs he took last year (32.9%) makes him the worst faceoff man in the free world. I know that Yanic Perrault is thought of as hands-down the best guy in the NHL on draws, and he has a career mark of around 62%. 33% is kind of mind-boggling. Toward the end of the season, they stopped having him take draws, though he continued to play center.

Expectations: Anyway, he's going to be in a battle with a few other guys for ice-time, since one of the "usual" forwards or the freshmen has to sit. I expect that based on what he brings to the defensive side of the game gives him an edge over someone like Naurato who is mainly effective in the offensive zone. I believe that we're going to score quite a lot of goals this year, even if we don't lead the nation, so I would rather have a tenacious forechecker, and someone who is tough to play against in the lineup over a guy that is going to pot 10 goals and not do much else.

In his two years combined, he has 13 points, so it's pretty unlikely that he's going to reach double-digits this year. But he's not a guy whose contributions are measured on our side of the scoresheet anyway. I'd expect another 5-8 points, 30 PIMs or so, and a +/- on the low side compared to the rest of the team, but still on the positive side (his line doesn't score enough goals to climb the charts in that regard...they're not expected to).

One of the reasons that I like this kid so much is that he does the dirty work and he's willing to give up his body. His 34 blocked shots led the team's forwards. It's even more impressive when you factor in the number of minutes he plays and the fact that he had just one in the last 13 games of the season. That "slump" at the end of the year indicates that if he's consistently in the lineup, his blocks total could actually rise significantly (that would put him around defensemen-level, which is kind of amazing).

Level of Necessity: 6 out of 10

Despite a lack of offensive numbers, he brings it defensively. He's our best shot-blocking forward. He's a good penalty killer. He's a great forechecker. And he brings some of that "nasty" that we don't have a ton of. He's a tough guy to play against, which means he's a nice guy to have around. And most importantly, he skates his ass off every time he's on the ice.

Competition brings out the best in guys. I don't expect to see Fardig lose out on a lot of chances to dress because of the battle for the 11th/12th forward spots, simply because he's a pretty consistent guy. You know what you're getting out of him and he's not going to hurt you by being in there. He's better at playing the pinball role than Ciraulo, and the other guys in this battle for ice-time don't really bring what Fardig does. It makes him unique, and I expect that they'll want some of that in the lineup.

I got my tickets this morning for the Icebreaker this weekend. I'll bring my laptop, but I don't know that I'll be able to update from St. Paul as I'm going to be busy seeing friends, I'm not sure my hotel has internet, and my laptop is hit and miss if it will turn on. If I can't find a way to update, I'll have full coverage when I get back to Madison on Sunday...after I watch the Packers/Redskins game of course.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Chad Kolarik

The latest player that we'll take a look at is one of just two seniors on the team, Chad Kolarik.

Last Season: Kolarik was fourth on the team in scoring as well as goals with an 18-27--45 line. He was +13 and had just 24 PIMs in 41 games. He led the team in PPGs (7) as well as short-handed goals (3). He was also the first Michigan player in a dozen years to notch hat-tricks in back to back games.

Kolarik was the closest thing to a video game player on our team, firing an amazing 163 shots at the net (that's what I do when I play video games...I end up shooting the puck like 70 times).

He also showed that faceoffs are not his strong suit, winning just 38.9% of the 190 draws that he took. What is his strong suit, though, is putting up points. He went without a point in back-to-back games just two times the entire season, and was held pointless on only thirteen of the 41 games.

Expectations: Whereas Kevin Porter puts up a ton of points, but is also a well-rouned player, Kolarik is more of a pure offensive talent. He's not a guy that you're going to put out there to lock down the opposing team's best player. He shoots, shoots, and shoots some more and puts in a fair amount of goals out of sheer opportunities (only Ciraulo, Fardig, and Turnbull had worse shooting percentages amongst our regular forwards).

He's extremely effective on the power play, and while he's not a great defender, he is nice to have out there on the PK, because he gives you the threat of scoring short-handed when he's out there. Part of what makes him so effective in that regard is that he is very good at blocking shots. His 26 blocks were second on the team amongst forwards to Danny Fardig.

He should be in line for another very nice season. He's never had less than 35 points in his Michigan career, and he'll be playing on the top line with Porter and Max Pacioretty, at least for the time being. It will be interesting to see the dynamic between Porter and Kolarik. Last year, Kolarik was with a pass-first center in Cogliano (and don't let Cogs's goal total fool you, he had just 89 shots on goal last year). Porter is used to getting the puck as well, finishing second on the team in shots last year. I'm curious to see if they'll adjust their games (and find some pucks for Pacioretty as well) or if they'll need to juggle the lines and get more of a natural passer on the top line.

If things stay how they are, however, it wouldn't shock me if Kolarik betters his personal bests in goals and points again this year. He put up 18 goals and 45 points and they didn't really have a threat on the left wing until Summers moved up to forward until late in the year. As of right now, he's with two other players that can put the puck in the net. If they prove to be able to get the puck to each other, we could have a really solid top line, even if it's not as nasty as Porter-Hensick-Rohlfs was last year.

I'd like to see him pass up some of those low-percentage shots in favor of working it around to his very talented linemates (and defensemen). If he can cut some of those out, and bury the higher-percentage shots that he gets, he could have a monster year.

I'd really like to see his shooting percentage closer to the .158 that he had as a freshman than the .104 or .110 that he's had in subsequent years. He had 18 goals on 114 shots as a freshman and it took him 163 to match that total as a junior. Midseason, he was at a .144, which is more like what we need. The puck stopped going in for him after the GLI, and he had just 4 goals after the first game of 2007 (I realize this contradicts what I said about how playing with two top-notch players might help him...so we'll see).

He's going to play heavy minutes, as a top line forward who also plays on the power play and penalty kill. I'm looking forward to a very nice senior season out of Kolarik.

Level of Necessity: 8.5 out of 10.

We lose enough scoring on this team as it is. Kolarik is second on the team amongst returning players in goals and points. He's a top line player, he plays on all the special teams units, and he's the closest thing to a sniper that we've got on this team. While Porter outscored him last year, Porter has just two more points over the course of their careers (and that was with the benefit of playing with TJ Hensick). There's no reason that being on equal footing, Kolarik shouldn't lead this team in scoring.

Other Stuff: The hockey team defeated Western Ontario by a 5-1 margin yesterday in their only exhibition game before they head out to St. Paul to potentially take on the #2 and #5 teams in the country.

Based on some high-quality box score reading (I wasn't about to listen to the game when the Packers were on. Maybe I should have.) it looks like another stellar night out of the Turnbull-Caporusso-Hagelin line. Hagelin had a hat trick. The Miller-Rust-Palushaj line also did a good job, with all three players netting two points.

Sauer allowed just one goal, but was apparently not tested more than a couple of times. 1 goal on 17 shots is just fine. You can only stop the shots you face, and it doesn't seem like UWO provided much of an offensive threat. Langlais was +3, and apparently was pretty impressive.

Bob Miller and MGoBlog had very detailed, first-hand accounts. From Bob's post, it seems that they're making an effort to be a more responsible defensive team this season, and he agrees with what I've been saying in these previews, that they'll be a more well-rounded offensive team, but without the elite offensive players that we've had in the past.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Brandon Naurato

Today marked the start of the 2007-08 exhibition schedule, with the Wolverines playing the annual Blue-White game. We'll get into that in a little bit, but first up is the break down on #22, Brandon Naurato.

Last Season: Naurato more than doubled his point total from his freshman season, putting up 12 goals to go along with 11 assists in 40 games. He was +4 with 34 PIMs. He also averaged almost 3 shots on goal per game, putting up 108 to rank him fifth on the team. He was also tied for fourth on the team in PPGs with 4.

If there's one thing this kid does well, it's shoot the puck. He probably has the best shot on the team, and while he doesn't do anything else extremely well, he's carved out a niche for himself on the team. He was held without a SOG only twice all season last year. He was pretty effective in the second half of the season, scoring 14 of his 23 points in the last 19 games of the season, including a five game point streak in January. Only six players on the team had more multi-point games last season (Naurato had 7).

Expectations: It kind of depends. As I've written before, there's 15 guys going for 12 spots up front. I figure that Fragner and Ciraulo will both be frequent scratches, leaving one more player who needs to sit. Naurato, Fardig, and Lebler seem to be battling it out for two spots. I think this battle is going to come down to what the coaches feel they need on the ice at any given moment (and where they may feel we're deficient after they see what the freshmen have). If it's a sniper, Naurato is in. If they need hustle, grit, and forechecking, Digger plays. If they want a big body to play the Jason Ryznar type role, then Lebler is in. And of course one injury up front puts all three of them into the lineup. Amazingly, we only lost four man-games to injury last year amongst our forwards.

Naurato will play, it just might not be every night. If that's the case--and he skated with Ciraulo and Fragner tonight, so that may be an indication that he's on the outside looking in--his numbers will likely go down from a year ago. If he can consistently play the way he did in the last 20 games of the season, though, he may find himself in the lineup more often than not. He'll be dressed based on his offensive abilities, so he needs to put numbers on the stat sheet to consistently be in the lineup.

Level of Necessity: 5.5 out of 10

His offensive abilities are a nice plus, but he doesn't bring enough in the other areas of the game to put him higher than this. He'll be good for 8-13 goals, possibly 20 points if he plays enough, and that's not anything to sneeze at. But he'll be in a battle for ice time (which may bring out the best in him) and I'm not confident that he's going to be the one that wins out in the end. He's kind of a hard one to project. 20 games played wouldn't shock me. But neither would 35. It depends on what we need in the lineup, if he steps up when he gets the chance, and if he can bring it consistently like he did for awhile toward the end of last season.

Other Stuff: The Blue-White game (PDF Link) was tonight and...well...let's put it this way: When the backup (Hogan) and 3rd stringer (Hunwick) aren't in the lineup and are replaced by walkons, it's probably not the best thing if the team the starting goalie is on loses 6-3. Not fair to put the blame on unbalanced teams, either. While the winning team did have 13 roster skaters to 9 for the other side, based on the projected lineups, each side had 9 regular skaters and 3 regular defensemen.

From what I can gather, here's the important stuff from the game:
-Louie Caporusso had a monster night with 3 assists, +4, and winning 16 of the 18 faceoffs he took(!!!)
-His linemates, Travis Turnbull (3-1--4, +4) and Carl Hagelin (1-3--4, +4) were evidently outstanding as well.
-For the other squad, Kevin Porter (2) and Max Pacioretty had the goals.
-Jon Montville isn't listed on the roster for this upcoming season but he played in the Blue/White game, which seems to indicate that he wasn't invited back or chose to focus on school rather than varsity hockey. I'd bank on the latter since he wasn't that bad for us. Either way, going -5 when no one else was worse than -2 probably didn't help his cause if he was looking to be back on the roster in some form.
-Caporusso's numbers on draws may have been aided somewhat by going against walkons (one was 2/10), but Rust and Porter also lost more than they won. And when you factor in that Rust is supposed to be an excellent faceoff man, maybe Louie is really really good? I can hope.
-Do we know why Hunwick didn't play? We don't need another goalie injury already.
-I'm really trying hard not to pile on, but here's the Sauer Report from poster GoalCountReady at the Yost Post:

He looked good tonight...

If by good you meant absolutely horrible. The first Blue goal was a weak shot that hit him in the body and trickled in across the goal line. The second goal was one rebound on a shot he kicked up when he should have had control over. The third one was actually a tough save... Turnbull snapped it into the top corner with the quickness and it was a fantastic shot. I missed the fourth goal, but Ciraulo's goal could have been kept out of the net and Turnbull's final goal was the result of some nice tic-tac-toe hockey that caught him on the wrong post. If it makes you feel any better the Hagelin--Caporusso--Turnbull line looked GOOD.

The Michigan Daily had a liveblog of the event. They weren't thrilled about the goaltending play either. This could really snowball in a hurry.

So we're off to a good start. Hopefully tomorrow is a better day. We don't need to be going into games against Boston College and potentially Minnesota with a goalie still questioning himself. And I'm driving out there, so I'd appreciate not seeing us get blown out.

Ben Winnett's profile closed out the Checking In feature for the year.

The Michigan Hockey edition of "MGoBlogs" at MGoBlue kicked off with a feature about Captain's Practices.

I'm never afraid to admit I was wrong, when I was in fact wrong. Matt Hunwick was the last defenseman cut from the Bruins in training camp (and logically would be the first call up). There were many times where I called him out as someone who I didn't even see as an AHL player, let alone an NHL player. I'm happy to admit I was wrong on that one, and I wish Matt all the best.

It's crazy to think that six years ago right now I was still thawing out after The Cold War. Today it was something like 86 degrees.

I still have nine more of these previews to go. I didn't think I was that far behind. Chad Kolarik is next.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Eric Elmblad

Next on the list is another player who was added as a walkon last season, sophomore defenseman Eric Elmblad.

Last Season: Elmblad did not skate in a game. Previously, he played a couple of seasons in the North American Hockey League. In 2005-06, he was with the Traverse City North Stars and posted a 3-5--8 line in 36 games with 46 PIMs.

Expectations: He's the eighth defenseman. He'll help out in practice, and be there if they have injury problems or end up with a lot of defections for the GLI (though I don't see it hurting our defense that badly).

He's the tallest player on the team at 6'4" and the fourth oldest player on the team, despite being a sophomore.

While I don't expect him to see the ice, if the need arises for a big, physical (I assume) defenseman, you never know.

Level of Necessity: 1 out of 10.

Barring a rash of injuries to our defense corps, I don't see him getting on the ice for a game. Then again, as the 8th defenseman, he only needs two guys to go out before he's pushed into the lineup. Stranger things have happened.

Other Stuff: The Wolverine's defense/goalie preview ($ link) went up today.

Scooter Vaughan "Checked In" with MGoBlue.com. He says that he had USHL offers but turned them down, intending on playing another year for Honeybaked.

I forgot to mention this when I was writing about the Wings game Wednesday night, but the shootout camera on Vs. has to go. Short of pointing the camera in the wrong direction, they couldn't have picked a worse angle than ice level at the red line. You couldn't see anything. The rink cam works just fine, behind the net if you got 'em. But don't get cute with it. It was like that camera for the NBA Playoffs on ABC that everyone despised.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Matt Rust

The only incoming freshman that played for the US NTDP is center Matt Rust.

Last Season: As a member of the Under 18 team, Rust put up 14 goals and 19 assists in 57 games, to go along with 85 penalty minutes. He also had 2 goals and 2 assists at the World Under 18 Championships.

He didn't tally any points in the U-18s close loss to Michigan at Yost, but he did impress me with his solid two-way play and his skating ability.

The Florida Panthers picked him in the 4th round of the NHL Draft, and their scouting director called him an "outstanding" faceoff man.

Expectations: I love this kid. "Two-way player" isn't in the dictionary, but if it were, his picture would be there. He's one of those guys that can play in any situation. He can lock down on the other team's top line. He can play on a scoring line. He can take important face-offs. He'll thrive on the penalty kill. Even though he's small (5'10" 180) he'll hit. He's not an offensive dynamo, but he can put the puck in the net and feed his teammates.

You'll probably hear Kevin Porter and Andrew Ebbett dropped as comparisons. And while he may not turn into the 40-50 point scorers that those guys eventually did, he should provide a lot of the same qualities in terms of defense and--in Ebbett's case--faceoffs.

As far as expectations for him in terms of points, let's use Kevin Porter as a baseline. Rust had 33 points as a senior in high school with the U-18s, while Porter had 8-30--38. Fairly similar, though Rust's points were closer to 50-50 goals and assists. They were both 4th round NHL draft picks. As a freshman, Porter had a line of 11-13--24 in 39 games, with 51 PIMs (which he has since cut dramatically) and was +11.

So that's a pretty fair gauge in terms of expectations. I'd expect 20-25 points, solid +/-, 55-60% on faceoffs (the high end of that is absolutely outstanding, but if we can have guys around 40%, maybe we can go to the extreme in a positive way with Rust). The point total could be adjusted up or down slightly depending on what line he plays on and what linemates he has. He's going to be an important part of this team, and I'm happy to have him.

Happy bonus: His little brother plays for Honeybaked right now. It's about time we start getting some guys in school here who have younger siblings who are also good at hockey.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10

As I said earlier, he's the type of guy that can play in every situation. Plus there are no worries with regard to the competition that he's faced (as there are with guys like Winnett and Quick). He played for the NTDP, which means he has the equivalent of 1/2 a season at the collegiate level under his belt already.

It wouldn't shock me a bit to see him as the top freshman center (though they may roll with Caporusso if they want a guy to center a scoring line).

Other Stuff: Rust was also the featured player in today's Checking In. Antoine Pitts also did a profile of him.

I also think it mentions warranting that it may be wise to temper the expectations for Ben Winnett down somewhat. Indications are that it might take some time for him to get used to the college game. I don't deny that I've probably been high on some of these "Level of Necessities" and with my expectations. It's the optimistic homer in my coming out. I'm trying to be as fair as possible, but it sounds as if I went high on that one.

The Wolverine ($ link) posted a preview of the 15 forwards today, including projected point totals for each player. Without giving away the individual breakdown or any of the comments about the players, I will say that they have our forwards accounting for 373 points this season. By comparison, last year's forwards scored 351 points. I've talked before about how I think we're actually deeper up front this year, even if we don't have those Hobey-type players like Hensick and Cogliano. I'd expect similar totals from the forwards (just more spread out) and much less from the defense. That guesstimate doesn't seem unreasonable, however.

Andrew Cogliano scored his first NHL point tonight in Edmonton's 3-2 shootout win over the Sharks.

*anny Richmon* now has a blog on Yar*barker. Interesting that he lists himself as a forward/defenseman.

Nice win by the Wings last night over Anaheim. The game went to a shootout, but the Red Wings dominated it the entire way through. Corey Perry deserves to get called out for his actions--so here's hoping Don Cherry saw the clip. Anyway, Perry was hit from behind by Dallas Drake a couple of years ago and so Perry decided to return the favor. When Drake got up, the two players decided to fight. The only problem: Perry wears a visor (shocking). Drake motioned for him to take off his visored helmet (since it's part of the unspoken code and all) and to make things fair, started to take his own helmet off. While he was doing that, Perry decided to sucker punch him, never removing his helmet. It was a decent fight after that, and the best part was the camera remained on Perry while he was in the penalty box, and you could tell that Drake was giving him an earful. Well deserved, I'd say.

That whole team is a bunch of hooking, holding, interfering, hitting from behind, elbowing thugs. I will say, though, that that Getzlaf is a hell of a player. Rafalski is one of the best skaters in the league and he made him look silly a couple of times late in regulation.

I would gladly take 81 more just like that one. Great effort for the first game of the season.

A Much Longer NHL Preview Than I Intended

I wasn’t going to do an NHL Preview this year since I’ve been doing the team preview for the Michigan hockey team, but I’ve really enjoyed doing them in the past. You’re getting the detailed breakdown for the West, and a bare bones breakdown of the East, since it’s pretty obvious that my picks suck for that conference. It's much longer than I intended, and I even kind of mailed in the East. It still stretched to 11 pages and took me 3 hours to write.

For each team, I’ve listed their top acquisition, key loss, the breakdown on players that were picked in my 12 person, 21 round fantasy draft (while it’s not an absolute measure of how good a team should be, it’s kind of fun to see), along with a few comments and a projected finish.

Western Conference

1. Detroit Red Wings
Top Acquisition: Brian Rafalski
Key Loss: Mathieu Schneider, Todd Bertuzzi
Fantasy Breakdown: 6 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goalie

The more things change, the more they stay the same. I want to put San Jose here, but since they’re in a division with Anaheim and Dallas, I can’t do it. The Wings are a great team in their own right, and with a few extra “easy” points, they get the edge. I don’t buy the argument that they’ve feasted on this division in the past (the stats don’t back it up) but when you’re looking at two pretty equal teams, it’s hard not to give the edge to the team in a weaker division.

Detroit had a strong defense corps last season and they get even better with the Rafalski/Schneider swap. The only thing that they’re losing in that trade-off is a booming shot from the point. But Rafalski has all the offensive instincts of Schneider, and he’s much better defensively.

The main worry that I have about this team is our depth at forward. After Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Holmstrom there’s not a lot there. Filppula, Cleary, and Samuelsson were picked in our draft, but none of them can be considered “sure things”. Hudler performed in limited ice time last season. Draper might be given a chance to be on a scoring line (God forbid!). Grigorenko didn’t even make the roster out of camp. This team needs another top-six forward (or two) and they’ve got the cap room to do it. Maybe they’re targeting Peter Forsberg if he makes a return to the NHL?

In goal they’re as solid as anyone in the league, with Dominik Hasek. Of course the big question is “Can he stay healthy?” Hasek proved that he could get through last season with his new stretching regimen. If he makes it through this year, the Wings have as good of a chance as anyone to be hoisting the Cup at season’s end.

2. San Jose Sharks
Top Acquisition: Experience for their young players
Key Loss: Vesa Toskala
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

I really thought San Jose was going to take it last year. I didn’t give the Wings a chance against them (completely wrong as it turned out), but they pushed Detroit to the brink of a 3-1 deficit before Robert Lang tied up game 4 and the Wings won in overtime. If Nabokov stops that shot, the Sharks win that series and I would’ve liked their chances against Anaheim.

The Sharks didn’t make a splash in the free agent market this offseason—Jeremy Roenick?—but rather chose to build from within. Forwards Pavelski, Clowe, and Michalek along with defensemen Vlasic and Carle will benefit from the experience that they’ve gotten and might improve the team more than a free agent signing would have.

They’re still a young team, and they’re still young on defense. Additionally, they moved their safety net in goal (Toskala), which could come into play should Nabokov get hurt or falter. He was very good for them in the playoffs, however.

The biggest question mark is how will team captain Patrick Marleau respond after his coach pretty much threw him under the bus for his disappearing act in the post-season?

3. Anaheim Ducks
Top Acquisition: Mathieu Schneider, Todd Bertuzzi
Key Loss: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, Scott Niedermayer (?)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-4-2 (Includes Niedermayer)

The defending Cup champs looked to be the favorite to get it done again this season until Scott Niedermayer started talking early retirement. At this time, all he’s said is that he won’t be there for the start of the season. The smart money is that he’ll come back late in the year for another run at it.

The Ducks prepared for his departure by snagging Schneider away from Detroit and bringing Todd Bertuzzi along with him. Bertuzzi replaces Penner, who was signed to a ridiculous offer sheet by Edmonton that Anaheim refused to match.

The big loss is Selanne, who also hasn’t 100% committed to retirement. Between he and Niedermayer, that’s a lot of points for the Ducks to replace.

The other question mark is if the Stay-Puff Marshmellow Man, JS Giguere, can continue to be effective. He was really good in the playoffs for them, but he had hernia surgery in the offseason and he’s had lingering hip problems as well.

4. Vancouver Canucks
Top Acquisition: Roberto Luongo last year (What? He’s the only thing they’ve really got going for them)
Key Loss: Rory Fitzpatrick (He just missed the All-Star team, right?)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-3-1

It’s amazing how this team has completely flip-flopped from five years ago. In the 2002 playoffs—when the Bertuzzi-Morrison-Naslund line was at their peak—I marveled at how good that team would be, if they only had a goalie.

Now they have a goalie, possibly the best goalie, and they can’t score (only New Jersey had less amongst playoff teams). They didn’t really do anything about it in the offseason either.

They’ll still be in the mix because of Luongo, but I think this team is going to be another good example of close, but no cigar.

5. Minnesota Wild
Top Acquisition: Eric Belanger
Key Loss: Manny Fernandez
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-0-2

I’m officially buying into the hype. I like this team (Gaborik and Rolston were both my picks, and I had to really stop myself from nabbing Demitra too). After years of boring hockey, no offense, and just playing for a 2-1 win, the Wild finally have some goal scorers.

Gaborik is absolutely ridiculous when he’s healthy. The problem is that he’s banged up quite a bit. In addition to the top three forwards I’ve listed above, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, and Mikko Koivu are good players. Belanger is one of those two-way centers that Jacques Lemaire loves.

The defense is solid, but unspectacular. They don’t get a lot of offense from the blueline (they were the only team that didn’t have a defenseman picked in our draft) but they’re a solid defensive team.

And then there’s the goalie. Niklas Backstrom was incredible last season as an older rookie. He had a 1.97 goals against average and a .923 save percentage, which led to Manny Fernandez becoming expendable. Josh Harding, with his Rascall Flats mask and his .960 save percentage in seven games, is the talented backup.

Make no mistake, they’ll still win games by playing defense. But this time, they’ve actually got some offense to go with it. It’s a nice combination.

6. Colorado Avalanche
Top Acquisition: Ryan Smyth
Key Loss: Patrice Brisebois
Fantasy Breakdown: 7-3-2

The bitch is back.

After a year outside the playoffs, the Avalanche should without question make their return this year. Francois Giguere has done an excellent job cleaning up the mess that Pierre Lacroix left, when Lacroix went from genius to not making a good trade in three years.

The Avs have done an incredible job of drafting the past few seasons, loading up on collegiate players, and it’s starting to pay off for them. Paul Stastny was outstanding as a rookie and looks to build on that strong campaign. Ex-Wolverine TJ Hensick had a great training camp and would’ve made the team but for the depth at center. I imagine that we’ll see him back at some point this year.

The Avs have a great group of forwards highlighted by Sakic, Hedjuk, Stastny, Brunette, Smyth, and Wolski. The Avs led the Western Conference in goals last year and there’s really no reason to expect that to change.

The defense is a little more shaky, and I’m still not sold on Peter Budaj in net, but there’s still no reason that this team shouldn’t be playing come late April.

7. Calgary Flames
Top Acquisition: Owen Nolan
Key Loss: Roman Hamrlik, Brad Stuart
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-2-1

Last year’s eighth place team and perennial pest checks in at #7 this year. This is a team that lives and dies by their goalie. Kiprusoff is as good as it gets in the NHL and he alone should be enough to get this team to the playoffs.

Thankfully he’s got a little bit of help. Iginla, Tanguay, the surprising Huselius, and the solid Langkow along with rearguards Phaneuf and Regehr provide some aid. Nolan even had a bit of a resurgence in the desert last year. They’re still not a scary group of positional players, but they hit hard, they’re annoying to play against, and with their goalie, they have a chance to beat most every team on any given night.

Firing the ironically named Jim Playfair at the end of last season didn’t surprise me. What did surprise me was that they replaced him with Mike Keenan, who I’m pretty sure is fighting with Mike Sillinger to be the first person to be an employee of every organization in the league. We’ll see how that one goes…

8. Dallas Stars
Top Acquisition: Umm…errr…
Key Loss: Ladislav Nagy
Fantasy Breakdown: 3-2-1

People are writing off the Stars because, let’s face it, they’ve got no goal scoring. But what they do have is a very solid defense, and a goalie in Marty Turco who is coming off an outstanding playoff performance, even if he didn’t get that series win he needs.

The surprising thing is that they really didn’t do anything in the offseason to help themselves. They let Sydor, Nagy, and Lindros go. Not that those guys were anything special, but they didn’t even replace them. I think Nagy is a better player than he’s given credit for, and while he was kind of a bust for them, he should’ve been brought back.

The thing working against Dallas is that they’ve got Anaheim and San Jose in their division, along with upstart Los Angeles, who won’t be easy pickings anymore. That and a lack of offense.

I still think they can be a playoff team, but as is usually the case, this one is going down to the wire.

9. St. Louis Blues
Top Acquisition: Paul Kariya, Erik Johnson
Key Loss: Captain, Dallas Drake
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-2-1

After years of being a doormat team, the Blues are finally ready to make some noise in the playoff race again. They made a too little, too late run at the playoffs at the end of last season before finishing in the 10^th slot.

I’m actually tempted to put them ahead of the Stars, but I’m not going to do it. I like what they’ve done with the team though. Manny Legace was very strong through the middle part of last year, before an injury ended his season.

They brought back Paul Kariya, who was very good in Nashville after a failed stint in Colorado. He’ll help the top line, and will likely be paired with Keith Tkachuk and Brad Boyes, who I love as a sleeper this year.

On defense, they add Calder candidate Erik Johnson, who made the leap to the NHL to bolster an already fairly decent group.

It wouldn’t shock me a bit if they make the playoffs.

10. Los Angeles Kings
Top Acquisition: Tom Priessing, Brad Stuart, Ladislav Nagy, Jack Johnson, Kyle Calder, Jonathan Bernier
Key Loss: Aaron Miller, I guess
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-4-1 (though I added Bernier after the opener, so that’d be a 2 in goalies)

This is going to be a fun team. They were one of the big off-season winners (along with the Rangers). They get Jack Johnson for a full season (I list him as an acquisition because he only played 5 games last year). They completely revamped the defense corps. Buccigross doesn’t like the Nagy signing much, but I do. As I said earlier, I think he’s a better player than he’s given credit for and he could be a real asset to a team like LA. Kyle Calder has looked great for them—that’s a guy I kind of wish Detroit had kept. He started off so good, then got hurt, got into Babcock’s dog house, and they let him go.

The big piece to the puzzle though is Bernier. The Kings haven’t had a goalie in a long time. Last year’s move to trade for Dan Cloutier over signing Legace as a free agent is still a puzzler to me. But Bernier looks like the real deal. They’ve questioned if he’ll stick or if he’ll be shipped back to his junior team, but after the performance in the opener in London against the Ducks, I imagine they’ll keep him.

If they get solid goaltending, this is a playoff team. If not, they’re a year away, but they’re a budding powerhouse. There’s a lot of young talent on this team (Frolov, Cammalleri, Kopitar, Brown, Armstrong, O'Sullivan, Johnson) and they’ve still got a few solid vets in there as well.

If the goaltending situation was more settled, I would have them in the playoffs. Talk to me again in 15-20 games.

11. Nashville Predators
Top Acquisition: Jed Ortmeyer
Key Losses: Tomas Vokoun, Peter Forsberg, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, Paul Kariya
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

It really saddens me when a team has been built to be a contender, and then due to ownership issues they have to tear it apart. It was looking as if Wings/Predators was going to be a fun rivalry in the future. They pushed Detroit last year in the Central, there was a playoff battle or two. And then it all got ripped apart.

Just look at that list of key losses. You can even include Steve Sullivan, who is out until at least December with a back injury. Who knows how he’ll respond (I picked him up anyway). You can’t replace guys like that.

That said, the cupboard isn’t completely bare. Alexander Radulov will be one of the breakout players this year. Martin Erat is one of the best that you’ve never heard of. J.P. Dumont is a solid player in his own right, and they’ve got a future Norris candidate in Shea Weber (another great sleeper). In goal is Chris Mason, who did a nice job splitting time with Vokoun, but I’m partial to the latter and I think it was a mistake to let him go.

If they could have kept last year’s core group together and then added the improvement of Radulov and Weber, this team could have contended. Now, they’ll be lucky to contend for a playoff spot. That’s not the formula for success if you’re looking to keep the team in Nashville. Reportedly, they’re allowed to leave if attendance drops below 14,000, so you might see a real-life version of Major League going on in Tennessee. And it’s too bad.

12. Chicago Blackhawks
Top Acquisition: A casket for Bill Wirtz, Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews, Sergei Samsonov, and (gulp) Robert Lang
Key Loss: Injuries to Ruutu and Havlat (let’s just get those out of the way right now)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Mean to say that about Bill Wirtz? Yes. He was supposedly a good guy—I know Chelios loved him—but hockey was not going to come back in Chicago until he was no longer running the team. And this league needs fans in Chicago to at least give a damn again. Hopefully they can now get the games back on TV and be willing to spend some money so the Blackhawks might matter again. I miss caring about that game.

Anyway, there’s some young blood coming in. #1 pick Pat Kane may not be ready yet, but he’s a damn fine hockey player. Jonathan Toews should contend with the two Johnsonses for the Calder. Samsonov and Lang were actually pretty nice pickups to pair with Martin Havlat, until he gets hurt a month into the season.

I’m not sure I’d want Lang as my #1 center, but maybe a lot of ice time is all he needs to get back to being the guy that nearly led the league in scoring a couple years back. Or maybe he just really is that lazy.

13. Edmonton Oilers
Top Acquisition: Dustin Penner, Sheldon Souray, Joni Pitkanen, Andrew Cogliano
Key Loss: Petr Sykora, Joffrey Lupul, Jason Smith, can I list Ryan Smyth again
Fantasy Breakdown: 3-2-1

I’m not sure they scored a goal after Ryan Smyth was traded.

Souray will help the offense from the back end, but he doesn’t exactly bring a lot of defensive savvy to the table.

If Ales Hemsky is going to realize his potential, now would be a good time to think about doing that. After putting up 77 points in his third year, he had a 24 point dropoff last season.

Jarret Stoll had a huge dropoff as well, but had injury troubles as well.

The big surprise could come in the form of ex-Wolverine Andrew Cogliano, who led the team in goals in training camp. He impressed the Oilers and he stuck with the team. He has the speed, the play making ability, and the shot to be a very good NHLer.

While they do have guys that could make jumps in points (Stoll, Hemsky, Torres), it’s still pretty hard to see this team in the playoffs at the end of the year. They won’t be as bad as they were at the end of last year though.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets
Top Acquisition: Mike Peca
Key Loss: Anders Eriksson (never thought that’d be something I would type!)
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-1-1

Ugh.

They can’t get Nikolai Zherdev to play hard. They can’t make Rick Nash realize his potential. They can’t make Sergei Fedorov younger. Their goaltender of the future got beat out by a 32 year old rookie. The bright spot is David Vyborny. 64 points last year, and a solid guy to have on the top line. But there’s really not a whole lot else on this team. Part of me wonders if we won’t see Fedorov back in Detroit, either at the deadline or on the cheap next year.

15. Phoenix Coyotes
Top Acquisition: Mike York
Key Loss: Owen Nolan
Fantasy Breakdown: 1-2-0

Sweet Mother of Mercy this is a bad hockey team. Let me put this in perspective for you all. There were 12 teams in my fantasy draft. Shane Doan was drafted 135^th overall and he was the first Coyote taken. The next one (Jovocop) was 168^th and Keith Ballard went 239^th. And that’s it. We had 252 players taken in the draft, and we felt the need to draft three players from Phoenix. No other team had less than six players taken, and most teams at least had their top line drafted. Phoenix was also the only team whose starting goalie was not selected.

I’m honestly not sure how you put together a hockey team that is this bad. There is exactly zero chance that this team doesn’t finish last in the West. Zero. And I’d be shocked if they’re not last in the league.

That’s the West. Here are my rankings for the East, which will be much less detailed, because quite frankly I suck at picking this conference. I did find that while it’s not as ripe with contenders as the West, the bottom of the conference is extremely hard to sort out from 6-15. There’s not one team in there that I would say can’t make the playoffs.

Eastern Conference:

1. New York Rangers
Top Acquisition: Chris Drury, Scott Gomez
Key Loss: Jed Ortmeyer
Fantasy Breakdown: 8-2-1

Real good team. I’m still worried about the defense a little bit, and I’m not fully buying into the hype, even though I have them #1. But they’re going to be good.

Be afraid though. The teams that I pick to be #1 in the East tend to do things like miss the playoffs.

2. Ottawa Senators
Top Acquisition: None
Key Loss: Mike Comrie, Tom Priessing
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-5-2

They still have as good of a top line as any. Deep defense. Solid goaltending if Emery is healthy. The Wings would’ve rolled them.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins
Top Acquisition: Petr Sykora
Key Loss: None
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-2-1

Fun, fun team to watch. Nice team to pluck fantasy players from. Can’t wait to catch em on Center Ice. Don’t think they’re a real contender for the Cup yet.

4. Buffalo Sabres
Top Acquisition: None
Key Loss: Chris Drury, Daniel Briere
Fantasy Breakdown: 7-2-1

Still powerful offensively if guys like Connolly step up and stay healthy. Still have a very good goalie in Ryan Miller. Good thing they kept Vanek.

5. Carolina Hurricanes
Top Acquisition: Matt Cullen
Key Loss: David Tanabe, Andrew Hutchinson
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-1-1

They missed the playoffs last year, they won’t this year. They’re the best in a pretty bad division. This team has rebound written all over them, especially if the top forwards can stay healthy. I don’t like the defense all that much, but they still should be in the top half of the East.

6. New Jersey Devils
Top Acquisition: Dainius Zubrus
Key Loss: Brian Rafalski, Scott Gomez
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-1-1

They still have a good group of forwards, but Paul Martin needs to step up in Rafalski’s absence. Brodeur keeps this team in the playoffs.

7. Philadelphia Flyers
Top Acquisition: Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, Jason Smith
Key Loss: Joni Pitkanen
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Much improved over that disaster last year. If Biron can hold up being the starter, they should make the playoffs.

8. Florida Panthers
Top Acquisition: Tomas Vokoun
Key Loss: Martin Gelinas
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-3-1

Vokoun was a great pickup. The Panthers weren’t that far out of the playoffs last year and with a great goalie in Vokoun, that might be the difference.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs
Top Acquisition: Vesa Toskala, Jason Blake, Mark Bell
Key Loss: Yanic Perrault
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

Their big acquisition in goal is apparently not starting. Mark Bell is going to jail at some point. Good stuff, eh Leafs fans? Blake is a really good, underrated player though. Losing Wellwood to an injury doesn’t help.

10. Atlanta Thrashers
Top Acquisition: Todd White
Key Loss: Keith Tkachuk
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-1-1

Still a great top line. Still not much else.

11. New York Islanders
Top Acquisition: Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin
Key Loss: Ryan Smyth, Jason Blake, Viktor Kozlov, Tom Poti, Richard Zednik, Alexei Yashin
Fantasy Breakdown: 8-1-1

Surprising amount of forwards drafted, given the mass departures from Long Island. Decent forwards, good goalie. I originally had this team listed dead last, but perhaps I should give them more credit. Especially considering they might have the best coach in the league.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning
Top Acquisition: Jan Hlavec
Key Loss: Nolan Pratt
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-3-1

That whole “paying 3 guys a ton of money” thing doesn’t work so well when you don’t have a goalie.

13. Montreal Canadiens
Top Acquisition: Roman Hamrlik, Patrice Brisebois
Key Loss: Sergei Samsonov, Sheldon Souray
Fantasy Breakdown: 2-3-1

It’s strange how good their PP was last year for the talent they had. Souray being gone hurts the PP big time and that’s how they scored their goals.

14. Washington Capitals
Top Acquisition: Niklas Backstrom, Tom Poti, Michael Nylander
Key Loss: None
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

They’ll be better. Backstrom is going to be a great player. Nylander and Semin are nice supporting guys.

15. Boston Bruins
Top Acquisition: Manny Fernandez
Key Loss: Glen Murray
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Kessel not getting nut cancer will help this year. So will having an NHL goalie. Chara big. Big good. Honestly, I don’t like them at 15 but I don’t like the Caps there either and I can’t figure out who else to slide in.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Tim Miller

Tim Miller, #18, is up next.

Last Season: A nice step up from his freshman year. He increase his goals by three, points by nine, +/- went up, penalties stayed roughly the same. He ended the year with a 7-17--24 line, good for eighth on the team. He was third in points (behind Porter and Kolarik) amongst our returning forwards. His 57 PIMs ranked him fourth on the team and first amongst forwards.

But offense isn't where he makes his mark. Miller is a very solid defensive player, and I don't think it'd be a stretch to say that he's the best checker out of all of our forwards. His 24 blocked shots ranked him fourth amongst forwards (behind Fardig, Kolarik and Rohlfs). The line of Naurato-Miller-Turnbull really started to play well down the stretch last year. Miller even got into the offense late in the year, scoring 6 points in the last six games.

Faceoffs were a bit of a bummer (44% on over 300 draws), but apart from that, I have no beef with his game.

Expectations: This paragraph is going to be pretty similar to Travis Turnbull's. I've been comparing the two since as far back as my "Season In Review" at the end of the 05-06 season.

#18 Tim Miller: I love Timmy Miller. Once Turnbull fell off from his fast start, Miller really started to play well. Great penalty killer, responsible in his own end, he can hit, and he's not clueless offensively. Just a good all-around guy that (like Turnbull) we're going to be happy to have for four years. He's one of the unsung guys of the team because he's not going to put up the flashy numbers or be a high draft pick. But he's just solid, solid, solid and you can put him out there in any situation. I'm very happy with him.

Final Grade: B+

So there ya go. I still think they're very similar players, with Miller having the edge as slightly more abrasive and slightly more offensively gifted.

As with Turnbull, I think it's pretty clear what we're going to get from Miller at this point. He'll be in the mid-20s in points, mid 50s in PIMs, solid defensively, good penalty killer, and a mean son-of-a-bitch to play against. Not the type of player who is going to get his name chanted or have people make up shirts about him, but the type of player that you need to have a winning team. And the type of player that I love watching.

He also might be someone to keep an eye on offensively. He does have some offensive skills. He's actually a pretty darn good passer for a checking-line player, and his seven goals came on just 53 shots, for a pretty solid .132 shooting percentage. He played with Turnbull and Naurato for a good chunk of the year last year. In the captain's practice that Bob Miller attended, he was with Caporusso and Palushaj to make up the most productive line of the day. If he ends up as the physical player on a scoring line, he could crack the 30 point plateau.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10.

I have to have him just a tick higher than Turnbull because I do think that offensive upside is there. By and large, they're similar players, and I imagine that they'll end up playing together again this year as two components of a solid checking line and a nice PK unit.

I really, really like this kid.

Other Stuff: I like this section because I get to point out little tidbits that I notice when I'm looking at stuff from last season. Andrew Cogliano was absolutely ridiculous. Do you realize that he ended the season with a 27% shooting percentage? 23 games into the season, it was almost 35%. That's kind of insane and it makes me wish that he had shot the puck more (he only had 89 shots on goal the entire season, which ranked him 7th on the team).

And as a team, our shooting percentage was worse on the power play than it was at even strength. That seems like it'd be pretty hard to do.

Manningham is out against Eastern for a violation of a team rule. I don't know what it is with these guys, but I'm getting pretty sick of seeing stuff like this in the papers. It seems like we've had an abnormally large number of guys getting arrested and whatnot in the last year. I don't know what the answer is (longer suspensions? more meaningful suspensions? making them watch Gingell kick field goals?) but it needs to get taken care of.