Friday, December 14, 2007

Projected Stats

We're now 18 games into the season and I think it's high time we come up with some projected stats for the rest of the year to give a little context to the pace that some of our guys are on. For comparison's sake, I'll be projecting it over 41 games, which is how many Michigan played last year. We could play as many as 45 games, however (I'm assuming in this "maximum" that we still will have a bye in the first round of the CCHA playoffs, which seems to be a pretty safe assumption).

For Louie Caporusso, I've done two projections: One for his current pace, another for if he misses no additional time. I'm also listing Summers as a defenseman and am assuming the defensive rotation continues.

First, the raw data. I'll break it all down in my next post and talk about what's surprising, what's shocking, what's disappointing, what you can take from this data, and what might be a little misleading.

Forwards:
Kevin Porter:
18 GP, 18-11--29, 8 PIMs, 59 SOG, +13
Projected: 41 GP, 41-25--66, 18 PIMs, 134 SOG, +30
Last year: 41 GP, 24-34--58, 16 PIMs, 128 SOG, +23

Chad Kolarik: 18 GP, 12-12--24, 6 PIMs, 80 SOG, +11
Projected: 41 GP, 27-27--54, 14 PIMs, 182 SOG, +25
Last year: 41 GP, 18-27--45, 24 PIMs, 163 SOG, +13

Aaron Palushaj: 18 GP, 5-14--19, 4 PIMs, 32 SOG, even
Projected: 41 GP, 11-32--43, 9 PIMs, 73 SOG, even

Max Pacioretty: 18 GP, 5-13--18, 32 PIMs, 54 SOG, +14
Projected: 41 GP, 11-30--41, 73 PIMs, 123 SOG, +32

Matt Rust: 17 GP, 7-5--12, 29 PIMs, 21 SOG, +6
Projected: 39 GP, 16-11--25, 67 PIMs, 48 SOG, +14

Carl Hagelin: 18 GP, 5-7--12, 12 PIMs, 28 SOG, +10
Projected: 41 GP, 11-16--25, 27 PIMs, 64 SOG, +23

Travis Turnbull: 18 GP, 5-4--9, 32 PIMs, 32 SOG, +9
Projected: 41 GP, 11-9--20, 73 PIMs, 73 SOG, +21
Last year: 41 GP, 8-9--17, 52 PIMs, 75 SOG, +6

Louie Caporusso: 9 GP, 3-5--8, 0 PIMs, 10 SOG, +6
Projected: 21 GP, 7-11--18, 0 PIMs, 22 SOG, +14
Projected (assuming he misses no additional time): 32 GP, 11-18--29, 0 PIMs, 36 SOG, +21

Tim Miller: 18 GP, 0-6--6, 12 PIMs, 15 SOG, even
Projected: 41 GP, 0-14--14, 27 PIMs, 34 SOG, even
Last year: 41 GP, 7-17--24, 57 PIMs, 53 SOG, +13

Ben Winnett: 18 GP, 3-2--5, 4 PIMs, 26 SOG, +4
Projected: 41 GP, 7-5--12, 9 PIMs, 59 SOG, +9

Brandon Naurato: 12 GP, 2-2--4, 10 PIMs, 30 SOG, -1
Projected: 27 GP, 5-5--10, 23 PIMs, 68 SOG, -2
Last year: 40 GP, 12-11--23, 34 PIMs, 108 SOG, +4

Brian Lebler: 13 GP, 2-1--3, 42 PIMs, 11 SOG, even
Projected: 30 GP, 5-2--7, 97 PIMs, 25 SOG, even
Last year: 37 GP, 7-4--11, 34 PIMs, 48 SOG, +2

Danny Fardig: 12 GP, 1-2--3, 10 PIMs, 13 SOG, +1
Projected: 27 GP, 2-5--7, 23 PIMs, 29 SOG, +2
Last year: 41 GP, 2-4--6, 36 PIMs, 38 SOG, +5

Anthony Ciraulo: 7 GP, 1-1--2, 2 PIMs, 5 SOG, +1
Projected: 16 GP, 2-2--4, 4 PIMs, 11 SOG, +2
Last year: 24 GP, 1-1--2, 2 PIMs, 15 SOG, +3

Defensemen:
Chad Langlais:
18 GP, 0-12--12, 22 PIMs, 24 SOG, +7
Projected: 41 GP, 0-27--27, 50 PIMs, 55 SOG, +16

Steve Kampfer: 17 GP, 2-8--10, 16 PIMs, 22 SOG, +10
Projected: 39 GP, 5-18--23, 37 PIMs, 50 SOG, +23
Last year: 35 GP, 1-3--4, 24 PIMs, 32 SOG, +3

Mark Mitera: 18 GP, 1-5--6, 24 PIMs, 23 SOG, +14
Projected: 41 GP, 2-11--13, 55 PIMs, 52 SOG, +32
Last year: 41 GP, 1-17--18, 52 PIMs, 47 SOG, +23

Chris Summers: 18 GP, 1-4--5, 18 PIMs, 21 SOG, +10
Projected: 41 GP, 2-9--11, 41 PIMs, 48 SOG, +23
Last year: 41 GP, 6-8--14, 58 PIMs, 42 SOG, +13

Tristin Llewellyn: 13 GP, 0-1--1, 18 PIMs, 6 SOG, +1
Projected: 30 GP, 0-2--2, 42 PIMs, 14 SOG, +2

Kevin Quick: 13 GP, 0-1--1, 8 PIMs, 6 SOG, +5
Projected: 30 GP, 0-2--2, 18 PIMs, 14 SOG, +12

Scooter Vaughan: 13 GP, 0-1--, 12 PIMs, 13 SOG, +8
Projected: 30 GP, 0-2--2, 28 PIMs, 30 SOG, +18

Goalies:
Billy Sauer:
16 GP, 14-2-0, 2.06 GAA, .915 Save %, 33 goals, 354 saves
Projected: 36 GP, 31-5-0, 2.06 GAA, .915 Save %, 74 goals, 797 saves
Last year: 40 GP, 25-14-1, 3.03 GAA, .896 Save %, 119 goals, 1,028 saves

Bryan Hogan: 2 GP, 2-0-0, 2.01 GAA, .920 Save %, 4 goals, 46 saves
Projected: 5 GP, 5-0-0, 2.01 GAA, .920 Save %, 10 goals, 115 saves

1 comment:

kc8niy said...

I see a trend with a few players that I'm not overly impressed with, but it's neither here nor there with the overall play of the team. Those who may be struggling slightly right now have plenty of time and opportunity to grow further. The only negative that I would really like to avoid whenever possible: Llewellyn and Vaughan on the ice at the same time.

More later with your commentary.