Monday, March 17, 2008

Good Way to Kill Some Time

College Hockey News has released their Pairwise Predictor. There are still a lot of games left so there's too many combinations to try, but I played around with the favorites winning most of the games and came up with the following:

-Miami should get a #1 seed as long as they beat Notre Dame. It's a lot less likely if they're in the consolation game.

-Looking very strong for Mankato to get in barring an upset in one of the title games. Making the title game isn't good enough for BU. They're going to need the autobid if they want to get in.

-Not looking so good for Wisconsin unless Notre Dame loses both games at the Joe. Even then there are a lot of scenarios where Notre Dame still gets in. It looks like Princeton winning might be key for the Badgers as well. And clearly UNH or BC would have to win Hockey East to keep a second at-large team out of Hockey East from getting in.

-Commenter Chi SF played around with the PWR in the comments of the article below and likes Michigan's Madison odds (yay!). Losing twice is bad m'kay. We should probably try to avoid doing that.

It appears that so long as Northern Michigan loses twice this weekend and Michigan does not lose twice, Michigan will end up the #1 seed. If Northern stays as a TUC and Michigan loses to Miami, Miami will be #1.
- Amazingly, if Michigan loses to Northern but then beats either Notre Dame or Miami in the consolation game, Michigan will stay #1.
- If Michigan beats Northern and loses to Miami, but Notre Dame beats Northern, Michigan stays #1. Only if Michigan beat Northern, loses to Miami, and Nothern beats ND, does Michigan drop to #2 behind Miami.
- If Michigan loses twice, they drop to #5.

Anyway, play around with it and let me know if you find anything that's interesting and realistic.

I've edited a few things from the original posting of this article. It looks like NMU winning the consolation game would kind of screw us up if we lose to Miami in the title game. If they fall from being a TUC, then Miami only has 9 games against TUCs and their strong record in that category would be excluded. It looks like even a loss & tie for NMU would bump them out of the PWR rankings, which would be good for us should we lose the CCHA Championship game.

Assuming Michigan and Miami win their semifinal games, the CCHA Consolation Game could be pretty huge for Michigan. If Notre Dame wins the third place game, Wisconsin is out and our game with Miami doesn't seem to matter in terms of the seeding. If Northern Michigan wins, we could fall to the #3 overall seed by losing to Miami and Wisconsin very possibly makes it in (depending on the ECAC and Hockey East results)

8 comments:

chi sf said...

I'm still getting us #1 if we lose to Miami in the championship game so long as ND beats Northern in the consolation game (keeping Northern out of the TUCs, which takes away TUC wins for Miami). If Northern wins the consolation game, then we drop to #3.

Packer487 said...

Yup, you're right. I was hoping to edit this article before anyone noticed :-)

It looks like NMU winning the consolation game is what would screw us up, moreso than NoDak winning the WCHA.

chi sf said...

Thanks for the pub - I guess I should screw around at work more often.

I'm rooting hard for Madison - it is a very short trip from Chicago. But, in my mind, the most important part of the Kohl Center is its bigger ice sheet. Sparty seems to be stuck in the 8-9 pairing no matter what. If we're going to get them, I want it on the bigger sheet.

David said...

anyone know what section the michigan students will be in this weekend at the joe? i dont want to buy tickets unless i know where to sit.

Packer487 said...

I got an email from someone who called the ticket office and they told him that the Michigan students will be in section 221, with the band in section 217a.

Hope that helps!

wolverinepucknut said...

Michigan needs to be placed away from madison.Why do you want to face the badgers on their home sheet. Albany here we come.

Anonymous said...

The mighty Wolverines can't REALLY be afraid of playing a bunch of sub-.500 Badgers, even if in their own barn, can they? How many years have higher ranked WCHA, ECAC or Hockey East teams been subjected to first-round games at the Joe, in Ann Arbor, or other similarly hostile/advantageous environments? Win the games you play (and, in the case of Miami, actually play someone of consequence more frequently!). -Sioux_Me in GF (that PW is around here somewhere!)

Packer487 said...

How could I NOT be afraid of playing Wisconsin on their home ice. They're in the WCHA, where even 6th place means that they'd probably make the 3rd round of the NHL playoffs.

No, I'm not overly afraid of playing Wisconsin on their home ice. I don't think that team is any good. But we of all people know what can happen when you play a team in the tournament in a home game. I'd prefer to avoid it. I don't think the Badgers are making the tournament, however, so it probably won't matter.

You guys might be in line to have some fun in Colorado Springs, Sioux Me.