-Miami should get a #1 seed as long as they beat Notre Dame. It's a lot less likely if they're in the consolation game.
-Looking very strong for Mankato to get in barring an upset in one of the title games. Making the title game isn't good enough for BU. They're going to need the autobid if they want to get in.
-Not looking so good for Wisconsin unless Notre Dame loses both games at the Joe. Even then there are a lot of scenarios where Notre Dame still gets in. It looks like Princeton winning might be key for the Badgers as well. And clearly UNH or BC would have to win Hockey East to keep a second at-large team out of Hockey East from getting in.
-Commenter Chi SF played around with the PWR in the comments of the article below and likes Michigan's Madison odds (yay!). Losing twice is bad m'kay. We should probably try to avoid doing that.
It appears that so long as Northern Michigan loses twice this weekend and Michigan does not lose twice, Michigan will end up the #1 seed. If Northern stays as a TUC and Michigan loses to Miami, Miami will be #1.
- Amazingly, if Michigan loses to Northern but then beats either Notre Dame or Miami in the consolation game, Michigan will stay #1.
- If Michigan beats Northern and loses to Miami, but Notre Dame beats Northern, Michigan stays #1. Only if Michigan beat Northern, loses to Miami, and Nothern beats ND, does Michigan drop to #2 behind Miami.
- If Michigan loses twice, they drop to #5.
Anyway, play around with it and let me know if you find anything that's interesting and realistic.
I've edited a few things from the original posting of this article. It looks like NMU winning the consolation game would kind of screw us up if we lose to Miami in the title game. If they fall from being a TUC, then Miami only has 9 games against TUCs and their strong record in that category would be excluded. It looks like even a loss & tie for NMU would bump them out of the PWR rankings, which would be good for us should we lose the CCHA Championship game.
Assuming Michigan and Miami win their semifinal games, the CCHA Consolation Game could be pretty huge for Michigan. If Notre Dame wins the third place game, Wisconsin is out and our game with Miami doesn't seem to matter in terms of the seeding. If Northern Michigan wins, we could fall to the #3 overall seed by losing to Miami and Wisconsin very possibly makes it in (depending on the ECAC and Hockey East results)