Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Eric Elmblad

Next on the list is another player who was added as a walkon last season, sophomore defenseman Eric Elmblad.

Last Season: Elmblad did not skate in a game. Previously, he played a couple of seasons in the North American Hockey League. In 2005-06, he was with the Traverse City North Stars and posted a 3-5--8 line in 36 games with 46 PIMs.

Expectations: He's the eighth defenseman. He'll help out in practice, and be there if they have injury problems or end up with a lot of defections for the GLI (though I don't see it hurting our defense that badly).

He's the tallest player on the team at 6'4" and the fourth oldest player on the team, despite being a sophomore.

While I don't expect him to see the ice, if the need arises for a big, physical (I assume) defenseman, you never know.

Level of Necessity: 1 out of 10.

Barring a rash of injuries to our defense corps, I don't see him getting on the ice for a game. Then again, as the 8th defenseman, he only needs two guys to go out before he's pushed into the lineup. Stranger things have happened.

Other Stuff: The Wolverine's defense/goalie preview ($ link) went up today.

Scooter Vaughan "Checked In" with MGoBlue.com. He says that he had USHL offers but turned them down, intending on playing another year for Honeybaked.

I forgot to mention this when I was writing about the Wings game Wednesday night, but the shootout camera on Vs. has to go. Short of pointing the camera in the wrong direction, they couldn't have picked a worse angle than ice level at the red line. You couldn't see anything. The rink cam works just fine, behind the net if you got 'em. But don't get cute with it. It was like that camera for the NBA Playoffs on ABC that everyone despised.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Matt Rust

The only incoming freshman that played for the US NTDP is center Matt Rust.

Last Season: As a member of the Under 18 team, Rust put up 14 goals and 19 assists in 57 games, to go along with 85 penalty minutes. He also had 2 goals and 2 assists at the World Under 18 Championships.

He didn't tally any points in the U-18s close loss to Michigan at Yost, but he did impress me with his solid two-way play and his skating ability.

The Florida Panthers picked him in the 4th round of the NHL Draft, and their scouting director called him an "outstanding" faceoff man.

Expectations: I love this kid. "Two-way player" isn't in the dictionary, but if it were, his picture would be there. He's one of those guys that can play in any situation. He can lock down on the other team's top line. He can play on a scoring line. He can take important face-offs. He'll thrive on the penalty kill. Even though he's small (5'10" 180) he'll hit. He's not an offensive dynamo, but he can put the puck in the net and feed his teammates.

You'll probably hear Kevin Porter and Andrew Ebbett dropped as comparisons. And while he may not turn into the 40-50 point scorers that those guys eventually did, he should provide a lot of the same qualities in terms of defense and--in Ebbett's case--faceoffs.

As far as expectations for him in terms of points, let's use Kevin Porter as a baseline. Rust had 33 points as a senior in high school with the U-18s, while Porter had 8-30--38. Fairly similar, though Rust's points were closer to 50-50 goals and assists. They were both 4th round NHL draft picks. As a freshman, Porter had a line of 11-13--24 in 39 games, with 51 PIMs (which he has since cut dramatically) and was +11.

So that's a pretty fair gauge in terms of expectations. I'd expect 20-25 points, solid +/-, 55-60% on faceoffs (the high end of that is absolutely outstanding, but if we can have guys around 40%, maybe we can go to the extreme in a positive way with Rust). The point total could be adjusted up or down slightly depending on what line he plays on and what linemates he has. He's going to be an important part of this team, and I'm happy to have him.

Happy bonus: His little brother plays for Honeybaked right now. It's about time we start getting some guys in school here who have younger siblings who are also good at hockey.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10

As I said earlier, he's the type of guy that can play in every situation. Plus there are no worries with regard to the competition that he's faced (as there are with guys like Winnett and Quick). He played for the NTDP, which means he has the equivalent of 1/2 a season at the collegiate level under his belt already.

It wouldn't shock me a bit to see him as the top freshman center (though they may roll with Caporusso if they want a guy to center a scoring line).

Other Stuff: Rust was also the featured player in today's Checking In. Antoine Pitts also did a profile of him.

I also think it mentions warranting that it may be wise to temper the expectations for Ben Winnett down somewhat. Indications are that it might take some time for him to get used to the college game. I don't deny that I've probably been high on some of these "Level of Necessities" and with my expectations. It's the optimistic homer in my coming out. I'm trying to be as fair as possible, but it sounds as if I went high on that one.

The Wolverine ($ link) posted a preview of the 15 forwards today, including projected point totals for each player. Without giving away the individual breakdown or any of the comments about the players, I will say that they have our forwards accounting for 373 points this season. By comparison, last year's forwards scored 351 points. I've talked before about how I think we're actually deeper up front this year, even if we don't have those Hobey-type players like Hensick and Cogliano. I'd expect similar totals from the forwards (just more spread out) and much less from the defense. That guesstimate doesn't seem unreasonable, however.

Andrew Cogliano scored his first NHL point tonight in Edmonton's 3-2 shootout win over the Sharks.

*anny Richmon* now has a blog on Yar*barker. Interesting that he lists himself as a forward/defenseman.

Nice win by the Wings last night over Anaheim. The game went to a shootout, but the Red Wings dominated it the entire way through. Corey Perry deserves to get called out for his actions--so here's hoping Don Cherry saw the clip. Anyway, Perry was hit from behind by Dallas Drake a couple of years ago and so Perry decided to return the favor. When Drake got up, the two players decided to fight. The only problem: Perry wears a visor (shocking). Drake motioned for him to take off his visored helmet (since it's part of the unspoken code and all) and to make things fair, started to take his own helmet off. While he was doing that, Perry decided to sucker punch him, never removing his helmet. It was a decent fight after that, and the best part was the camera remained on Perry while he was in the penalty box, and you could tell that Drake was giving him an earful. Well deserved, I'd say.

That whole team is a bunch of hooking, holding, interfering, hitting from behind, elbowing thugs. I will say, though, that that Getzlaf is a hell of a player. Rafalski is one of the best skaters in the league and he made him look silly a couple of times late in regulation.

I would gladly take 81 more just like that one. Great effort for the first game of the season.

A Much Longer NHL Preview Than I Intended

I wasn’t going to do an NHL Preview this year since I’ve been doing the team preview for the Michigan hockey team, but I’ve really enjoyed doing them in the past. You’re getting the detailed breakdown for the West, and a bare bones breakdown of the East, since it’s pretty obvious that my picks suck for that conference. It's much longer than I intended, and I even kind of mailed in the East. It still stretched to 11 pages and took me 3 hours to write.

For each team, I’ve listed their top acquisition, key loss, the breakdown on players that were picked in my 12 person, 21 round fantasy draft (while it’s not an absolute measure of how good a team should be, it’s kind of fun to see), along with a few comments and a projected finish.

Western Conference

1. Detroit Red Wings
Top Acquisition: Brian Rafalski
Key Loss: Mathieu Schneider, Todd Bertuzzi
Fantasy Breakdown: 6 forwards, 3 defensemen, 1 goalie

The more things change, the more they stay the same. I want to put San Jose here, but since they’re in a division with Anaheim and Dallas, I can’t do it. The Wings are a great team in their own right, and with a few extra “easy” points, they get the edge. I don’t buy the argument that they’ve feasted on this division in the past (the stats don’t back it up) but when you’re looking at two pretty equal teams, it’s hard not to give the edge to the team in a weaker division.

Detroit had a strong defense corps last season and they get even better with the Rafalski/Schneider swap. The only thing that they’re losing in that trade-off is a booming shot from the point. But Rafalski has all the offensive instincts of Schneider, and he’s much better defensively.

The main worry that I have about this team is our depth at forward. After Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Holmstrom there’s not a lot there. Filppula, Cleary, and Samuelsson were picked in our draft, but none of them can be considered “sure things”. Hudler performed in limited ice time last season. Draper might be given a chance to be on a scoring line (God forbid!). Grigorenko didn’t even make the roster out of camp. This team needs another top-six forward (or two) and they’ve got the cap room to do it. Maybe they’re targeting Peter Forsberg if he makes a return to the NHL?

In goal they’re as solid as anyone in the league, with Dominik Hasek. Of course the big question is “Can he stay healthy?” Hasek proved that he could get through last season with his new stretching regimen. If he makes it through this year, the Wings have as good of a chance as anyone to be hoisting the Cup at season’s end.

2. San Jose Sharks
Top Acquisition: Experience for their young players
Key Loss: Vesa Toskala
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

I really thought San Jose was going to take it last year. I didn’t give the Wings a chance against them (completely wrong as it turned out), but they pushed Detroit to the brink of a 3-1 deficit before Robert Lang tied up game 4 and the Wings won in overtime. If Nabokov stops that shot, the Sharks win that series and I would’ve liked their chances against Anaheim.

The Sharks didn’t make a splash in the free agent market this offseason—Jeremy Roenick?—but rather chose to build from within. Forwards Pavelski, Clowe, and Michalek along with defensemen Vlasic and Carle will benefit from the experience that they’ve gotten and might improve the team more than a free agent signing would have.

They’re still a young team, and they’re still young on defense. Additionally, they moved their safety net in goal (Toskala), which could come into play should Nabokov get hurt or falter. He was very good for them in the playoffs, however.

The biggest question mark is how will team captain Patrick Marleau respond after his coach pretty much threw him under the bus for his disappearing act in the post-season?

3. Anaheim Ducks
Top Acquisition: Mathieu Schneider, Todd Bertuzzi
Key Loss: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, Scott Niedermayer (?)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-4-2 (Includes Niedermayer)

The defending Cup champs looked to be the favorite to get it done again this season until Scott Niedermayer started talking early retirement. At this time, all he’s said is that he won’t be there for the start of the season. The smart money is that he’ll come back late in the year for another run at it.

The Ducks prepared for his departure by snagging Schneider away from Detroit and bringing Todd Bertuzzi along with him. Bertuzzi replaces Penner, who was signed to a ridiculous offer sheet by Edmonton that Anaheim refused to match.

The big loss is Selanne, who also hasn’t 100% committed to retirement. Between he and Niedermayer, that’s a lot of points for the Ducks to replace.

The other question mark is if the Stay-Puff Marshmellow Man, JS Giguere, can continue to be effective. He was really good in the playoffs for them, but he had hernia surgery in the offseason and he’s had lingering hip problems as well.

4. Vancouver Canucks
Top Acquisition: Roberto Luongo last year (What? He’s the only thing they’ve really got going for them)
Key Loss: Rory Fitzpatrick (He just missed the All-Star team, right?)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-3-1

It’s amazing how this team has completely flip-flopped from five years ago. In the 2002 playoffs—when the Bertuzzi-Morrison-Naslund line was at their peak—I marveled at how good that team would be, if they only had a goalie.

Now they have a goalie, possibly the best goalie, and they can’t score (only New Jersey had less amongst playoff teams). They didn’t really do anything about it in the offseason either.

They’ll still be in the mix because of Luongo, but I think this team is going to be another good example of close, but no cigar.

5. Minnesota Wild
Top Acquisition: Eric Belanger
Key Loss: Manny Fernandez
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-0-2

I’m officially buying into the hype. I like this team (Gaborik and Rolston were both my picks, and I had to really stop myself from nabbing Demitra too). After years of boring hockey, no offense, and just playing for a 2-1 win, the Wild finally have some goal scorers.

Gaborik is absolutely ridiculous when he’s healthy. The problem is that he’s banged up quite a bit. In addition to the top three forwards I’ve listed above, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, and Mikko Koivu are good players. Belanger is one of those two-way centers that Jacques Lemaire loves.

The defense is solid, but unspectacular. They don’t get a lot of offense from the blueline (they were the only team that didn’t have a defenseman picked in our draft) but they’re a solid defensive team.

And then there’s the goalie. Niklas Backstrom was incredible last season as an older rookie. He had a 1.97 goals against average and a .923 save percentage, which led to Manny Fernandez becoming expendable. Josh Harding, with his Rascall Flats mask and his .960 save percentage in seven games, is the talented backup.

Make no mistake, they’ll still win games by playing defense. But this time, they’ve actually got some offense to go with it. It’s a nice combination.

6. Colorado Avalanche
Top Acquisition: Ryan Smyth
Key Loss: Patrice Brisebois
Fantasy Breakdown: 7-3-2

The bitch is back.

After a year outside the playoffs, the Avalanche should without question make their return this year. Francois Giguere has done an excellent job cleaning up the mess that Pierre Lacroix left, when Lacroix went from genius to not making a good trade in three years.

The Avs have done an incredible job of drafting the past few seasons, loading up on collegiate players, and it’s starting to pay off for them. Paul Stastny was outstanding as a rookie and looks to build on that strong campaign. Ex-Wolverine TJ Hensick had a great training camp and would’ve made the team but for the depth at center. I imagine that we’ll see him back at some point this year.

The Avs have a great group of forwards highlighted by Sakic, Hedjuk, Stastny, Brunette, Smyth, and Wolski. The Avs led the Western Conference in goals last year and there’s really no reason to expect that to change.

The defense is a little more shaky, and I’m still not sold on Peter Budaj in net, but there’s still no reason that this team shouldn’t be playing come late April.

7. Calgary Flames
Top Acquisition: Owen Nolan
Key Loss: Roman Hamrlik, Brad Stuart
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-2-1

Last year’s eighth place team and perennial pest checks in at #7 this year. This is a team that lives and dies by their goalie. Kiprusoff is as good as it gets in the NHL and he alone should be enough to get this team to the playoffs.

Thankfully he’s got a little bit of help. Iginla, Tanguay, the surprising Huselius, and the solid Langkow along with rearguards Phaneuf and Regehr provide some aid. Nolan even had a bit of a resurgence in the desert last year. They’re still not a scary group of positional players, but they hit hard, they’re annoying to play against, and with their goalie, they have a chance to beat most every team on any given night.

Firing the ironically named Jim Playfair at the end of last season didn’t surprise me. What did surprise me was that they replaced him with Mike Keenan, who I’m pretty sure is fighting with Mike Sillinger to be the first person to be an employee of every organization in the league. We’ll see how that one goes…

8. Dallas Stars
Top Acquisition: Umm…errr…
Key Loss: Ladislav Nagy
Fantasy Breakdown: 3-2-1

People are writing off the Stars because, let’s face it, they’ve got no goal scoring. But what they do have is a very solid defense, and a goalie in Marty Turco who is coming off an outstanding playoff performance, even if he didn’t get that series win he needs.

The surprising thing is that they really didn’t do anything in the offseason to help themselves. They let Sydor, Nagy, and Lindros go. Not that those guys were anything special, but they didn’t even replace them. I think Nagy is a better player than he’s given credit for, and while he was kind of a bust for them, he should’ve been brought back.

The thing working against Dallas is that they’ve got Anaheim and San Jose in their division, along with upstart Los Angeles, who won’t be easy pickings anymore. That and a lack of offense.

I still think they can be a playoff team, but as is usually the case, this one is going down to the wire.

9. St. Louis Blues
Top Acquisition: Paul Kariya, Erik Johnson
Key Loss: Captain, Dallas Drake
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-2-1

After years of being a doormat team, the Blues are finally ready to make some noise in the playoff race again. They made a too little, too late run at the playoffs at the end of last season before finishing in the 10^th slot.

I’m actually tempted to put them ahead of the Stars, but I’m not going to do it. I like what they’ve done with the team though. Manny Legace was very strong through the middle part of last year, before an injury ended his season.

They brought back Paul Kariya, who was very good in Nashville after a failed stint in Colorado. He’ll help the top line, and will likely be paired with Keith Tkachuk and Brad Boyes, who I love as a sleeper this year.

On defense, they add Calder candidate Erik Johnson, who made the leap to the NHL to bolster an already fairly decent group.

It wouldn’t shock me a bit if they make the playoffs.

10. Los Angeles Kings
Top Acquisition: Tom Priessing, Brad Stuart, Ladislav Nagy, Jack Johnson, Kyle Calder, Jonathan Bernier
Key Loss: Aaron Miller, I guess
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-4-1 (though I added Bernier after the opener, so that’d be a 2 in goalies)

This is going to be a fun team. They were one of the big off-season winners (along with the Rangers). They get Jack Johnson for a full season (I list him as an acquisition because he only played 5 games last year). They completely revamped the defense corps. Buccigross doesn’t like the Nagy signing much, but I do. As I said earlier, I think he’s a better player than he’s given credit for and he could be a real asset to a team like LA. Kyle Calder has looked great for them—that’s a guy I kind of wish Detroit had kept. He started off so good, then got hurt, got into Babcock’s dog house, and they let him go.

The big piece to the puzzle though is Bernier. The Kings haven’t had a goalie in a long time. Last year’s move to trade for Dan Cloutier over signing Legace as a free agent is still a puzzler to me. But Bernier looks like the real deal. They’ve questioned if he’ll stick or if he’ll be shipped back to his junior team, but after the performance in the opener in London against the Ducks, I imagine they’ll keep him.

If they get solid goaltending, this is a playoff team. If not, they’re a year away, but they’re a budding powerhouse. There’s a lot of young talent on this team (Frolov, Cammalleri, Kopitar, Brown, Armstrong, O'Sullivan, Johnson) and they’ve still got a few solid vets in there as well.

If the goaltending situation was more settled, I would have them in the playoffs. Talk to me again in 15-20 games.

11. Nashville Predators
Top Acquisition: Jed Ortmeyer
Key Losses: Tomas Vokoun, Peter Forsberg, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, Paul Kariya
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

It really saddens me when a team has been built to be a contender, and then due to ownership issues they have to tear it apart. It was looking as if Wings/Predators was going to be a fun rivalry in the future. They pushed Detroit last year in the Central, there was a playoff battle or two. And then it all got ripped apart.

Just look at that list of key losses. You can even include Steve Sullivan, who is out until at least December with a back injury. Who knows how he’ll respond (I picked him up anyway). You can’t replace guys like that.

That said, the cupboard isn’t completely bare. Alexander Radulov will be one of the breakout players this year. Martin Erat is one of the best that you’ve never heard of. J.P. Dumont is a solid player in his own right, and they’ve got a future Norris candidate in Shea Weber (another great sleeper). In goal is Chris Mason, who did a nice job splitting time with Vokoun, but I’m partial to the latter and I think it was a mistake to let him go.

If they could have kept last year’s core group together and then added the improvement of Radulov and Weber, this team could have contended. Now, they’ll be lucky to contend for a playoff spot. That’s not the formula for success if you’re looking to keep the team in Nashville. Reportedly, they’re allowed to leave if attendance drops below 14,000, so you might see a real-life version of Major League going on in Tennessee. And it’s too bad.

12. Chicago Blackhawks
Top Acquisition: A casket for Bill Wirtz, Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews, Sergei Samsonov, and (gulp) Robert Lang
Key Loss: Injuries to Ruutu and Havlat (let’s just get those out of the way right now)
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Mean to say that about Bill Wirtz? Yes. He was supposedly a good guy—I know Chelios loved him—but hockey was not going to come back in Chicago until he was no longer running the team. And this league needs fans in Chicago to at least give a damn again. Hopefully they can now get the games back on TV and be willing to spend some money so the Blackhawks might matter again. I miss caring about that game.

Anyway, there’s some young blood coming in. #1 pick Pat Kane may not be ready yet, but he’s a damn fine hockey player. Jonathan Toews should contend with the two Johnsonses for the Calder. Samsonov and Lang were actually pretty nice pickups to pair with Martin Havlat, until he gets hurt a month into the season.

I’m not sure I’d want Lang as my #1 center, but maybe a lot of ice time is all he needs to get back to being the guy that nearly led the league in scoring a couple years back. Or maybe he just really is that lazy.

13. Edmonton Oilers
Top Acquisition: Dustin Penner, Sheldon Souray, Joni Pitkanen, Andrew Cogliano
Key Loss: Petr Sykora, Joffrey Lupul, Jason Smith, can I list Ryan Smyth again
Fantasy Breakdown: 3-2-1

I’m not sure they scored a goal after Ryan Smyth was traded.

Souray will help the offense from the back end, but he doesn’t exactly bring a lot of defensive savvy to the table.

If Ales Hemsky is going to realize his potential, now would be a good time to think about doing that. After putting up 77 points in his third year, he had a 24 point dropoff last season.

Jarret Stoll had a huge dropoff as well, but had injury troubles as well.

The big surprise could come in the form of ex-Wolverine Andrew Cogliano, who led the team in goals in training camp. He impressed the Oilers and he stuck with the team. He has the speed, the play making ability, and the shot to be a very good NHLer.

While they do have guys that could make jumps in points (Stoll, Hemsky, Torres), it’s still pretty hard to see this team in the playoffs at the end of the year. They won’t be as bad as they were at the end of last year though.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets
Top Acquisition: Mike Peca
Key Loss: Anders Eriksson (never thought that’d be something I would type!)
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-1-1

Ugh.

They can’t get Nikolai Zherdev to play hard. They can’t make Rick Nash realize his potential. They can’t make Sergei Fedorov younger. Their goaltender of the future got beat out by a 32 year old rookie. The bright spot is David Vyborny. 64 points last year, and a solid guy to have on the top line. But there’s really not a whole lot else on this team. Part of me wonders if we won’t see Fedorov back in Detroit, either at the deadline or on the cheap next year.

15. Phoenix Coyotes
Top Acquisition: Mike York
Key Loss: Owen Nolan
Fantasy Breakdown: 1-2-0

Sweet Mother of Mercy this is a bad hockey team. Let me put this in perspective for you all. There were 12 teams in my fantasy draft. Shane Doan was drafted 135^th overall and he was the first Coyote taken. The next one (Jovocop) was 168^th and Keith Ballard went 239^th. And that’s it. We had 252 players taken in the draft, and we felt the need to draft three players from Phoenix. No other team had less than six players taken, and most teams at least had their top line drafted. Phoenix was also the only team whose starting goalie was not selected.

I’m honestly not sure how you put together a hockey team that is this bad. There is exactly zero chance that this team doesn’t finish last in the West. Zero. And I’d be shocked if they’re not last in the league.

That’s the West. Here are my rankings for the East, which will be much less detailed, because quite frankly I suck at picking this conference. I did find that while it’s not as ripe with contenders as the West, the bottom of the conference is extremely hard to sort out from 6-15. There’s not one team in there that I would say can’t make the playoffs.

Eastern Conference:

1. New York Rangers
Top Acquisition: Chris Drury, Scott Gomez
Key Loss: Jed Ortmeyer
Fantasy Breakdown: 8-2-1

Real good team. I’m still worried about the defense a little bit, and I’m not fully buying into the hype, even though I have them #1. But they’re going to be good.

Be afraid though. The teams that I pick to be #1 in the East tend to do things like miss the playoffs.

2. Ottawa Senators
Top Acquisition: None
Key Loss: Mike Comrie, Tom Priessing
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-5-2

They still have as good of a top line as any. Deep defense. Solid goaltending if Emery is healthy. The Wings would’ve rolled them.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins
Top Acquisition: Petr Sykora
Key Loss: None
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-2-1

Fun, fun team to watch. Nice team to pluck fantasy players from. Can’t wait to catch em on Center Ice. Don’t think they’re a real contender for the Cup yet.

4. Buffalo Sabres
Top Acquisition: None
Key Loss: Chris Drury, Daniel Briere
Fantasy Breakdown: 7-2-1

Still powerful offensively if guys like Connolly step up and stay healthy. Still have a very good goalie in Ryan Miller. Good thing they kept Vanek.

5. Carolina Hurricanes
Top Acquisition: Matt Cullen
Key Loss: David Tanabe, Andrew Hutchinson
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-1-1

They missed the playoffs last year, they won’t this year. They’re the best in a pretty bad division. This team has rebound written all over them, especially if the top forwards can stay healthy. I don’t like the defense all that much, but they still should be in the top half of the East.

6. New Jersey Devils
Top Acquisition: Dainius Zubrus
Key Loss: Brian Rafalski, Scott Gomez
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-1-1

They still have a good group of forwards, but Paul Martin needs to step up in Rafalski’s absence. Brodeur keeps this team in the playoffs.

7. Philadelphia Flyers
Top Acquisition: Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, Jason Smith
Key Loss: Joni Pitkanen
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Much improved over that disaster last year. If Biron can hold up being the starter, they should make the playoffs.

8. Florida Panthers
Top Acquisition: Tomas Vokoun
Key Loss: Martin Gelinas
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-3-1

Vokoun was a great pickup. The Panthers weren’t that far out of the playoffs last year and with a great goalie in Vokoun, that might be the difference.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs
Top Acquisition: Vesa Toskala, Jason Blake, Mark Bell
Key Loss: Yanic Perrault
Fantasy Breakdown: 6-3-1

Their big acquisition in goal is apparently not starting. Mark Bell is going to jail at some point. Good stuff, eh Leafs fans? Blake is a really good, underrated player though. Losing Wellwood to an injury doesn’t help.

10. Atlanta Thrashers
Top Acquisition: Todd White
Key Loss: Keith Tkachuk
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-1-1

Still a great top line. Still not much else.

11. New York Islanders
Top Acquisition: Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin
Key Loss: Ryan Smyth, Jason Blake, Viktor Kozlov, Tom Poti, Richard Zednik, Alexei Yashin
Fantasy Breakdown: 8-1-1

Surprising amount of forwards drafted, given the mass departures from Long Island. Decent forwards, good goalie. I originally had this team listed dead last, but perhaps I should give them more credit. Especially considering they might have the best coach in the league.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning
Top Acquisition: Jan Hlavec
Key Loss: Nolan Pratt
Fantasy Breakdown: 4-3-1

That whole “paying 3 guys a ton of money” thing doesn’t work so well when you don’t have a goalie.

13. Montreal Canadiens
Top Acquisition: Roman Hamrlik, Patrice Brisebois
Key Loss: Sergei Samsonov, Sheldon Souray
Fantasy Breakdown: 2-3-1

It’s strange how good their PP was last year for the talent they had. Souray being gone hurts the PP big time and that’s how they scored their goals.

14. Washington Capitals
Top Acquisition: Niklas Backstrom, Tom Poti, Michael Nylander
Key Loss: None
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

They’ll be better. Backstrom is going to be a great player. Nylander and Semin are nice supporting guys.

15. Boston Bruins
Top Acquisition: Manny Fernandez
Key Loss: Glen Murray
Fantasy Breakdown: 5-1-1

Kessel not getting nut cancer will help this year. So will having an NHL goalie. Chara big. Big good. Honestly, I don’t like them at 15 but I don’t like the Caps there either and I can’t figure out who else to slide in.

Hockey Roundtable

The Detroit News had an excellent roundtable discussion with Mike Ilitch, Jimmy Devellano, Scotty Bowman, Ken Holland, and Jim Nill. It's a long read but well worth it. I was originally going to tack this stuff on to the end of my Tim Miller post, but there's too much in here that I want to comment on.

First up, there's yet another bit of evidence that if the league expands again, we're heading East finally.

News: Do you feel like, over time, once 'Hockeytown' was built, that the NHL took advantage of you to a certain degree?

Ilitch: Well, I think they want to keep us in the division we're in now, because we fill their arenas. And I do think we're like the poor man's Yankees. They don't want to see us win anymore, because we've been up there so long.

News: Do you have any assurances from the league, if there's expansion, which they're talking about again, about getting back to the Eastern Conference?

Ilitch: Well, (NHL commissioner Gary) Bettman has told Jimmy and I on two or three occasions that we're next.

Devellano: I'd just like to add one more thing about expansion. There's little doubt that Vegas is coming in (as an expansion franchise) -- it's about four years from now. And I truly believe Gary Bettman will move us East at that time.

Interesting. That's more concrete than some of the articles I've read. I'm not a fan of expansion, but if that's what it takes to move us to the Eastern Conference where we belong, I'm all for it. And I do think that Vegas is a nice spot for a team. The Kings have played games there each exhibition season for awhile now, and I know a lot of people believe that whoever makes the first splash in Vegas wins. Maybe Rick Tocchet can be the head coach.

There's also this tidbit, which likely means we're drafting more Europeans in the future, but that they'll probably be good ones. I find this really interesting, because it means that in addition to having one of the best in Sweden, we've got a great scout in Finland as well. We haven't really gone into that country all that often:

Bowman: I met a guy at (training) camp this year, a scout, that (the Wings) just hired from Finland. I knew the guy as a player -- he played junior in Canada about 20 years ago. He was (a scout) with Los Angeles, and they got two of their better young players -- (Anze) Kopitar and (Alexander) Frolov -- and he was instrumental (in the Kings drafting them). (The Wings) have a great scout in Hakaan Anderson (the Wings' director of European scouting) and now they have this guy in Finland. They keep going after it. They keep getting players. But don't forget: It's not cheap. You gotta hire people. So I think what the Red Wings have done is, they can't go out and buy players now, but you go and get good people working for you and you treat them right.

It'd be nice if they could scour the college ranks that heavily. It's really not that hard, guys. A lot of the good teams are right in your back yard. No excuse to keep missing guys like TJ Hensick.

It also seems pretty definitive that the schedule is changing and that the Wings were one of the main driving forces to that end. Devellano said "sternly" that the schedule format is definitely changing. Bout damn time. I still have no clue what the NHL is thinking not getting every team into every building each year. Rivalries aren't built in the regular season, as much as they want it to be so. They're built in the playoffs, so there's no way you can manufacture them. The only way would be to go back to the old system of having to win your way out of the division come playoff time. But that might not be feasible with so many teams.

The organization is just as mad about the finish to last season as we were as fans. I still feel like it was a major missed opportunity. And about that penalty on Datsyuk in game 5......yeah.

News: People were crushed last year when you lost to Anaheim. What about the pressure going into this year. You like this team's chances?

Ilitch: Oh, I do. I'll speak up. I think we've got a good team, we got a good shot at the Cup. Last year we should've won the Cup. We were 2-2 -- and I'm gonna talk like a typical fan now -- it was 2-2, and a minute and a half to go, and they called the cheapest penalty I've ever seen.

Devellano: Yeah, (expletive).

Bowman: Two-man system.

Ilitch: Now, and here's the big tears coming out, but prior to that, Kenny brought it to the league's attention, there was a flagrant penalty on Anaheim, right in front of the referee, and they didn't call it. Then they turned around and called that (interference) penalty (on Pavel Datsyuk). We had that game won, and we'd have been up 3-2 in the series.

That same referee in 1994, when we were down 3-2 going into Toronto, we score four power-play goals, we come back to Detroit 3-3, and the referee did not call one penalty -- not one -- during the game or overtime. So you figure that one out. We lost, and that's the same guy that made that call in this arena with a minute and a half to go.

Maybe that part about 1994 was going BWI--since we did have Tim Sieve-all-day as our goalie and all--but I completely agree with his sentiment about that penalty on Datsyuk. Absolute crap. Especially with the way teams like Anaheim are allowed to interfere on dump-ins.

It's kind of interesting that Mike Ilitch completely dodged the question about whether they'll build a new arena or renovate the Joe.

News: So the next big thing for the Wings seems to be the arena situation, whether you renovate the Joe or build a new one.

Ilitch: Let me ask you guys a question. Do you think we should stay here or build a new arena?

News: I think you should build a new arena, but I'm not paying the bills.

News: I've always felt this is a good place to watch a hockey game, I will say that.

Ilitch: Yeah. Well, we love these sightlines. We would take these same sightlines. But there's a lot of people saying, 'Why don't you stay at the Joe?'

News: So what's your timetable on a decision?

Ilitch: Well, let's go on to the next thing.

Like the News writer said, I'm not paying the bills, but to me it's a no-brainer. You go to a place like the XCel Center, and it's obvious what a complete craphole Joe Louis is. I know there have been a lot of good memories there, and it does have pretty good sightlines, but it needs to be modernized in a way that I don't feel they could do with a renovation.

There's a lot more in that article, but those were the parts that I found to be especially interesting.

I don't believe that I have time to write up a proper NHL Preview like I've done the past couple of years, but I really did enjoy doing those so I might give it a try tomorrow if I get bored. I'm thrilled that hockey is finally back and I get to pull my new Dominik Hasek jersey out of the closet.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Tim Miller

Tim Miller, #18, is up next.

Last Season: A nice step up from his freshman year. He increase his goals by three, points by nine, +/- went up, penalties stayed roughly the same. He ended the year with a 7-17--24 line, good for eighth on the team. He was third in points (behind Porter and Kolarik) amongst our returning forwards. His 57 PIMs ranked him fourth on the team and first amongst forwards.

But offense isn't where he makes his mark. Miller is a very solid defensive player, and I don't think it'd be a stretch to say that he's the best checker out of all of our forwards. His 24 blocked shots ranked him fourth amongst forwards (behind Fardig, Kolarik and Rohlfs). The line of Naurato-Miller-Turnbull really started to play well down the stretch last year. Miller even got into the offense late in the year, scoring 6 points in the last six games.

Faceoffs were a bit of a bummer (44% on over 300 draws), but apart from that, I have no beef with his game.

Expectations: This paragraph is going to be pretty similar to Travis Turnbull's. I've been comparing the two since as far back as my "Season In Review" at the end of the 05-06 season.

#18 Tim Miller: I love Timmy Miller. Once Turnbull fell off from his fast start, Miller really started to play well. Great penalty killer, responsible in his own end, he can hit, and he's not clueless offensively. Just a good all-around guy that (like Turnbull) we're going to be happy to have for four years. He's one of the unsung guys of the team because he's not going to put up the flashy numbers or be a high draft pick. But he's just solid, solid, solid and you can put him out there in any situation. I'm very happy with him.

Final Grade: B+

So there ya go. I still think they're very similar players, with Miller having the edge as slightly more abrasive and slightly more offensively gifted.

As with Turnbull, I think it's pretty clear what we're going to get from Miller at this point. He'll be in the mid-20s in points, mid 50s in PIMs, solid defensively, good penalty killer, and a mean son-of-a-bitch to play against. Not the type of player who is going to get his name chanted or have people make up shirts about him, but the type of player that you need to have a winning team. And the type of player that I love watching.

He also might be someone to keep an eye on offensively. He does have some offensive skills. He's actually a pretty darn good passer for a checking-line player, and his seven goals came on just 53 shots, for a pretty solid .132 shooting percentage. He played with Turnbull and Naurato for a good chunk of the year last year. In the captain's practice that Bob Miller attended, he was with Caporusso and Palushaj to make up the most productive line of the day. If he ends up as the physical player on a scoring line, he could crack the 30 point plateau.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10.

I have to have him just a tick higher than Turnbull because I do think that offensive upside is there. By and large, they're similar players, and I imagine that they'll end up playing together again this year as two components of a solid checking line and a nice PK unit.

I really, really like this kid.

Other Stuff: I like this section because I get to point out little tidbits that I notice when I'm looking at stuff from last season. Andrew Cogliano was absolutely ridiculous. Do you realize that he ended the season with a 27% shooting percentage? 23 games into the season, it was almost 35%. That's kind of insane and it makes me wish that he had shot the puck more (he only had 89 shots on goal the entire season, which ranked him 7th on the team).

And as a team, our shooting percentage was worse on the power play than it was at even strength. That seems like it'd be pretty hard to do.

Manningham is out against Eastern for a violation of a team rule. I don't know what it is with these guys, but I'm getting pretty sick of seeing stuff like this in the papers. It seems like we've had an abnormally large number of guys getting arrested and whatnot in the last year. I don't know what the answer is (longer suspensions? more meaningful suspensions? making them watch Gingell kick field goals?) but it needs to get taken care of.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Mark Mitera

Michigan's #1 defenseman is up next, #17 Mark Mitera.

Last Season: After a solid freshman campaign, which led to him being a first round draft pick, Mitera had another good year as a sophomore. Fans, myself included, complained that he was inconsistent at times but he still managed to better his numbers from the year before. He was tenth on the team in scoring with a 1-17--18 line in 41 games. He had 52 PIMs, which isn't an unreasonable number for a defenseman like him, and was tied for 5th in plus/minus with a very nice +23 rating (and a +20 in conference play, which was good for #1 in the CCHA).

He had a pair of 13 game streaks where he didn't record a minus rating, and was only a minus in six of the 41 games he played in (and was only minus multiple goals on three occasions). So even though he was inconsistent at times, I'd be thrilled if all four of the incoming freshmen were inconsistent to the tune of +23.

His 55 blocked shots also led the team. I'm tempted to make a "That includes our goalies" joke here, but I won't.

Expectations: After being a second-pairing defenseman throughout his time at Michigan, Mitera will now be counted on to be the rock on the first pairing. He's the only defenseman on the roster with more than one year of experience at the college level. And even though he's been a pretty darn good player thusfar, he needs to elevate his game to match his ascension up the depth chart.

He's never going to be a huge points guy. He has just two multi-point games in his career and only one career goal. If any of our defensemen are going to pick up the scoring slack left by the departures of Johnson and Hunwick, it's probably going to have to come from elsewhere. Based on some extra ice-time (and I do feel that they'll ride him a little more with so many young guys), his assist numbers could go up slightly (though our scoring as a team will be down so they might not go up as much as you'd think), and it's not unreasonable that he could put in a couple more goals, but I doubt he gets too much above 20 points.

As long as he continues to make improvements in his game, he's one of the last guys on the team that I'm worried about. This team needs to be better defensively and riding a steady, stay-at-home guy for 25 minutes a night is a good start. He was a pre-season All-CCHA Honorable Mention, and if one of our defensemen is getting honored, it's probably going to be him (though I don't think Summers being on one of the teams is out of the question).

Level of Necessity: 9.5 out of 10.

I'd be really, really worried if Mitera went down. We'd be left with exactly 0 upperclassmen on the blueline and we'd be playing 4 freshmen and 2 sophomores. He's going to play huge minutes this year, probably play on both special teams, and be out there in every important situation.

He hits, he blocks shots, he's really good at using his feet to stop pucks when an opponent is rushing the puck, he's the biggest player on the team, and he's hardly ever out there for an even-strength goal against us.

I said in Kevin Porter's profile that there's no single player more vital to the success of this team based on what Porter provides in all aspects of the game. And what I meant by that is that if Porter went out, we'd have a hole at center, we'd lose goals, we'd lose assists, we'd lose our best defensive forward, and we'd lose a potentially decent faceoff guy. There's no one that brings all of those components. But with our depth at forward, we could replace a lot of the scoring by committee. We have other defensive forwards. We have other centers. But in terms of all-around ability, he's the whole package.

Mitera, however, may be the player that's most important to the success of the team based on the fact that we can't replace what he brings. We don't have any other 6'3" defensemen. We don't have another defensive defenseman who I'd be comfortable plugging in for 25 minutes a game. If he went out, our defense corps would have a total of 65 games at the position. And we'd have a huge hole on defense in front of a very shaky goaltender (or a freshman goaltender).

If he was a threat to put in 5-10 goals and 30 points, I'd probably have him as a 10 out of 10. But he is a guy that we simply can't afford to lose.

Other Stuff: Aaron Palushaj "checks in".

And a quick comment about the Rockies/Padres game: I don't like baseball very much, apart from watching Roy Oswalt pitch, and watching the postseason. I don't mind watching when something is on the line. I just want to know how many more blown calls in the post-season (or an extended-regular-season-but-not-technically-a-playoff game) are going to happen before baseball gets out of the stone age and allows instant replay?

I can understand why they wouldn't want every checked swing or every close play at first to be reviewed, but at some point in games like this the emphasis has to be on getting the call right. There have been too many home runs ruled foul or vice-versa (plus whatever happened tonight, I missed the home run/no home run call) over the years, and it's completely avoidable.

163 games, an amazing finish in that last game, and it comes down to a blown call at the plate where the umpire was clearly unsure what the correct call was. What the hell would be the problem in letting them look at the video? The ump guessed. It's obvious. I've never seen a delay that long result in the guy being called safe, and I've never seen a less-emphatic safe signal. Usually in that situation, the umpire flings his arms out to the side quickly, and even several times in a row. Maybe he "replayed it in his head".

And by the way, when Julio came in to start the top of the 13th and I saw his record was 0-5 and he had 0 saves in 7 opportunities, I just started laughing and said, "There's the guy you want in the game." He then proceeded to throw like 8 balls and 2 strikes, one of which was hit out of the park, before he got yanked. I wish I could've bet on that. I wonder if Rockies fans had the same reaction when that dude came in that my dad usually has when the Tigers put in Grilli. I guess that's what happens when you're on to your ninth arm of the night.

This was a night that reminded me why I like playoff baseball so much. It's just too bad that the game had to end with the winning run not touching home plate. The technology is there. It's stupid not to use it.

Breaking Down the 07-08 Wolverines: Ben Winnett

Next up is the speedster from Western Canada, forward Ben Winnett.

Last Season: As a member of the BCHL's Salmon Arm Silverbacks--the same team that sent Andrew Ebbett our way--Winnett scored 27-30--57 in 39 games with 58 PIMs. In the playoffs, he almost reached the point per game plateau with 3-7--10 in 11 games. He was also a member of the BCHL All-Star team. Winnett ranked just 39th in scoring, but he missed almost half the season due to a separated shoulder. A better comparison is that he was tenth in the league in points per game.

The Toronto Maple Leafs selected him in the fourth round during the most recent NHL Draft.

Expectations: They're pretty high. From the time he picked the Wolverines over Wisconsin, we've heard reports from Yost that they were really excited to get a look at him in a Michigan jersey.

When he first committed, I had questions about his size because he was playing at 158 pounds. Now MGoBlue lists him at 6'1" 182 which isn't bad at all if it's accurate. He apparently has great speed--like, NHL speed--the ability to create offensively, and isn't afraid to muck it up in the corners. Some folks over at Hockey's Future were pretty complimentary in the lead up to the draft as well, as MGoBlog found out.

This kid is a scorer and a playmaker. He's a top-six forward and he's going to play on the power play. He's probably not as absurdly fast as Andrew Cogliano, but if you're looking for the token fast-as-hell, offensively-gifted Canadian with question marks about his defensive game, I think he's your guy. Assuming Pacioretty-Porter-Kolarik is the top line, it wouldn't shock me a bit if Winnett is a member of a very fun to watch, all freshman second line. Winnett-Rust/Caporusso-Palushaj sounds pretty good to me! If it doesn't happen immediately, I don't doubt that it will once the freshmen settle in a little bit. The coaches definitely have some options with this team, and I'm really curious to see what lines they decide to go with.

Cogliano had 28 points in 39 games as a freshman. I'd tone it down slightly because he's not as shirtless of a recruit as Cogliano was coming in, but you also have to remember that Cogliano was pretty useless after the World Junior Championships as well. High 20s, low 30s sounds about right to me. Hopefully he betters Cogliano's -11. And doesn't dive as much.

Level of Necessity: 7 out of 10 (If you can't tell, I'm wishing at this point that I had planned these out in advance)

We're pretty deep at forward, but I have to put him ahead of a guy like Turnbull, who isn't going to light up the scoreboards. As I said earlier, Winnett will likely be a top-six forward on this team. We lost a couple of "skilled" players with Hensick and Cogliano off to the pros and Winnett has the ability to pick up some of that scoring slack.

He sounds like the type of player who will be better in college than he's projected to be in the NHL, and might out-perform his status as a fourth-round draft pick. I expect that he'll have a very good freshman season. I'm looking forward to seeing him play. Bob Miller knows the type of players that I like, and he's said that he'd bet that he'll become one of my favorites, along with Caporusso, who already is.

Other Stuff:
No more ties in college hockey after this season. My vote would be for one year just play 4 on 4 OT until someone wins, then once Sauer graduates, the NHL's system of 4 on 4 for five minutes and then a shootout would work just fine.

Also in that article comes the news that the NCAA is not requiring Ford Field to do a preview game before they host the 2010 Frozen Four. That has disaster written all over it. I understand that expense would be a reason not to do it, but it'd be worse if 2010 rolls around and whoops! We can't get it cold enough in this building to make good ice.

Not counting the 20 games on Comcast Local, which I may or may not be able to get, there will be 43 CCHA games that I should be able to see on TV this year. As I mentioned before, I think I'm going to get 19 Michigan games. All of this makes me very happy.

Checking In profiles of Tristin Llewellyn and Max Pacioretty are up.

Also, some guy named Favre broke two more records today in the process of taking his team to 4-0 on the season. Not bad for someone who was written off as completely washed up by pretty much everyone who only looks at stats.