Having a Seat Over There: One Buzzer In, One Buzzer Out

Yesterday the St. Michael's Buzzers pipeline to Ann Arbor was tapped once again, with 2014 defenseman Jared Walsh offering up his commitment to the Maize and Blue. Today, however, a former Buzzer is out. Daniel Milne, a freshman forward, left the hockey team to sign with Owen Sound of the OHL.

Walsh, a 5'11", 175 blueliner from Toronto, has a goal and 15 assists in 34 games for the Buzzers. He's also got 20 PIMs and six points on the power play. That's good for a tie for 34th in the league amongst defensemen, but 3rd amongst 1996-birthdays. At least 20 of the guys in front of him are either 92s or 93s.

The Buzzers' Head Coach and GM said the following about Walsh (this link has a little more detail than the previous version that was cycling around yesterday):

He has developed into a very high end defenceman early in his rookie year. He has become a force on special teams and brings a unique bag of speed, smarts, toughness and a very heavy shot. He's becoming a quiet leader and is very deserving of the attention and accolades.

Walsh played for Team Canada East at the World Junior A Challenge where he had a pair of assists in five games. Last season he played for the Toronto Marlboros and scored 4-11--15 in 35 games.

You can follow him on Twitter at @3jwalsh. He was a second-round pick of Missassauga of the OHL. So there's that.

While one Buzzer pledged his commitment, another decided to head back to Ontario. It was announced today that Milne had left the hockey team. He had played in just seven games this season and had not tallied a point.

From the linked article in The Daily, Red voiced his disappointment but noted that Milne was in good academic standing. He'll be playing for the Owen Sound Attack in the OHL. He picked Michigan over Notre Dame (and Owen Sound). Michigan had liked (PDF link) his skating ability as well as his ability to play at both ends of the ice. I'm not a fan of players bailing midseason, but given Michigan's struggles up front and the fact that he wasn't playing very often, some frustration is certainly understandable (assuming this move is for more playing time). But seriously, F the O.

Carrick Reneges on LOI, Signs With Plymouth

This is getting old.

Incoming defenseman Connor Carrick has reneged on his letter of intent to sign a deal with the Plymouth Whalers of the Ontario Hockey League.

If you follow me on Twitter you already know my feelings, as I've been ranting in 140 characters or less the entire day. Since I have room to expand on my feelings, here it goes:

First off, he sounds like a really good kid. I don't respect his decision or the timing of it, but don't take what I'm about to say as an attack on his person. If he was the first to pull this, it probably wouldn't draw more than a mention that he wasn't coming. Most of what I'm about to write can apply to dozens of players who have pulled a stunt like this over the past few years. And in Carrick's case, if Michigan was hinting that they wanted to move him to forward to ease the log-jam on defense and he only wants to be a defenseman, then I don't really blame him for looking around.

I get that he's doing what he feels is best for his career and that teenagers change their minds. Here's the thing: I would never rip a kid for initially picking the OHL/CHL over the NCAA route. It's clearly a fine path to the NHL (as is the NCAA). Both routes offer different things and what's good for one kid may not be right for another.

What I have a major problem with is the timing. It's late June. By making this decision when he did, he guarantees that Michigan is playing down a scholarship player this season. Sure they might give the money to a player that wasn't getting a scholarship (or a full one) but they're down a scholarship player. There's no one out there that we're going to be able to bring in at this point to replace him.

If Carrick (or anyone else) makes a decision that only affects him, fine. But once you've committed and once you've put your name on a piece of paper saying "I will play for you next season" it goes way beyond that. Now his decision has a negative impact on his would-have-been teammates and the coaching staff. Their chances of reaching their goal of winning a national championship have been diminished, whether slightly or not.

It's not like the fact that the OHL is a good path to the NHL should be a shocker to anyone. It's not news that they offer education packages of some form. It's not news that there's a team just down the road from Ann Arbor.

He told the Free Press the following:

“I think Plymouth is a better fit for me from a hockey perspective,” Carrick said. “I think it gives me the best opportunity for me to reach my dream. At the end of the day, more than anything else, I want to be an NHL hockey player. I think major junior, more specifically the Plymouth Whalers, is going to give me the opportunity to do that.

If major junior is the better option today, then it was a better option 2 years ago, it was a better option a year ago, and it was a better option six months ago. It didn't magically become the better option three months before the start of the season. Just saying.

Now, let's debunk the myth that major junior is going to give him the best chance to be an NHL player. He was a fifth-round pick. Let's check out how those players have done in the NHL over the past decade, along with the stats for defensemen, specifically:

• 2001: Five guys have played more than 100 games.  (440 GP by defensemen, 425 by Kevin Bieksa)
  
• 2002: James Wisniewski is the only remotely successful player. Four guys have played more than 65 games. Everyone else has combined for 18 games. (377 GP out of defensemen, all by Wisniewski)
  
• 2003: Six guys have played 80 games or more. The rest of the round has played 45. (241 GP out of defensemen, 159 by Lasse Kukkonen)
  
• 2004: Five guys have played more than 100 games. No one else has played more than 26 games. (125 GP out of defensemen, 102 by Nikita Nikitin)
  
• 2005: Seven guys have played more than a season's-worth of games. No one else has played more than 2. (255 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2006: The entire fifth-round has combined for 38 games played, and one goal. (24 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2007: Jamie Benn has done well. Everyone else: 62 games played, three goals. (11 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2008: 11 players have made the NHL. Only Matt Martin has played more than 70 games. (65 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2009: No one has played 80 games yet. No one has scored 10 goals or more for their career. (1 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2010: No one has played a game in the NHL. (0 GP out of defensemen)
  
• 2011: Andrew Shaw is the only player to play in the NHL. (0 GP out of defensemen)

The odds are really stacked against him. Since 2001, fifth-round defensemen have played about 1,500 games in the NHL total. Six d-men have played more than 100 games in the league. Two played college hockey, two played in the OHL, two played in Europe. Clearly the OHL is the way to go if you're looking to make the NHL and were drafted in the fifth round.

Ignoring that, bailing at this point is horrifically selfish. For two years Michigan has committed a scholarship to him (and since November-ish it's been set in stone). There would have been plenty of kids lining up to take that slot. There may have even been kids whose dream it was to play at the University of Michigan who didn't get an offer because the Wolverines were holding a slot for Carrick. Now, after it's too late for Michigan to find a replacement--and after it's too late for a hypothetical kid to come to Michigan--he's said "Just kidding. Not interested."

Clearly someone has been drinking the OHL Kool Aid in a big way. Check this out from The Wolverine:

"No one has ever said that I'm a sure-fire NHL player, but I want to play in the NHL so bad and I feel like I need to develop at a better rate than I am currently, and I will be able to do that at Plymouth better than I could at Michigan," he said.

"This decision gives me the best opportunity to reach my dream, but I'm not abandoning my education. I do very well in school and I'm going to get my degree some day.

"The thing I was thinking about, though, was even if I went to college, if you want to play in the NHL, you're likely only there two years, three - very few guys stay four years and play in the NHL, and ask any guy that goes to college at a program like Michigan and he hopes to get his shot faster than that.

"So even if I went to Michigan, I don't think I'd be there all four years, so this is a chance for me to really improve on the hockey side and then academically, it doesn't change much for me because either way I probably wasn't going to get my degree in four years."

That couldn't possibly be farther from the truth. Michigan had 23 players play in the NHL last season. 15 of those players played four years for the Wolverines. Only Brown, Cammalleri, Cogliano, JMFJ, Montoya, Komisarek, Pacioretty, and Palushaj left early. According to this tweet from College Hockey Inc, over half of the former NCAA players currently in the NHL played four years of college hockey. It's just flat out wrong that you have to leave school early if you want to make the NHL.

Also, it's not like going major-junior automatically puts you into the league. Let's look at the guys who have decommitted from Michigan to go to the CHL (or left Michigan to do so) in recent memory:

• AJ Jenks (100th overall): Played four years for the Plymouth Whalers. After three 50+ point seasons there (and finishing behind only Tyler Seguin in scoring in 09-10) he split time between the AHL and ECHL last year and has yet to make the NHL. With 9 points in 52 AHL games last year, it's not likely to happen anytime soon.
• Jared Knight (32nd overall): Played four years in the OHL. Played three games in the AHL last year. Time will still tell on him, but he certainly didn't fast-track to the show. 
• Lucas Lessio (56th overall): He's two years into his OHL career.
• Robbie Czarnik (63rd overall): After not doing anything for a year and change at Michigan he went to the Whalers and immediately scored over a point per game (OMG THAT LEAGUE IS SOOOOOOO GOOD!). After playing in the OHL for a year and a half (so 3 years total in college/juniors), he spent this past season in the AHL and scored a whopping 8 goals in 49 games. 
• Trevor Lewis (17th overall): The one kind-of success story. He reneged on his commitment after being drafted in the first round. He played one year in the OHL, spent most of 3 years in the AHL (with a couple call ups) and won a Stanley Cup Championship with the LA Kings. For his career he has 7 goals in 155 games.
• Jason Bacashihua (26th overall): Played one year in the OHL, played 38 games in the NHL, won a whole seven of them, and has been bumbling around the AHL ever since.
• Jack Campell (11th overall): Spent two years in the OHL, and got called up to the AHL toward the end of the year. 
• John Gibson (39th overall): Put up really good numbers last year in the OHL. Still too soon to tell how quickly he'll make the Show. 
• Jason Bailey (63rd overall): After a year-and-a-half at Michigan, spent a year-and-a-half in the OHL. Appears to be out of hockey after 43 games in the ECHL and 107 in the AHL. 
• Tyler Swystun (undrafted): After two years in the WHL, he played two seasons at the University of Calgary. Out of hockey.
• *anny Richmon* (31st overall): One year at Michigan. One year in the OHL. Played 49 games in the NHL over 4 years. 3 points, -12. Hasn't had a sniff since 08.

So if you're counting, that's three guys who have made the NHL at this point. None of which have done anything remotely noteworthy. And outside of Swystun, every single one of them was drafted ahead of Carrick.

Ed note: I forgot Richmon* when I originally published this post. 

For his sake, I hope he does follow through on getting his degree. The odds say he won't. And yet the odds also say he's going to need it. It's exceedingly rare for a player drafted where he was to have any kind of lengthy career in the NHL.

This is why I'm such a fan of Jacob Trouba and why, if he goes the OHL route as well, I'm probably going to stop following recruiting altogether. That kid took forever to make up his mind if he was going the NCAA route or the OHL route, and he said the reason was that he wanted to be absolutely sure--that he wasn't going to back out once he had committed to a team. The Wolverine talked to him as well. Without giving away what he said (it's a $ link), it shouldn't be a major shocker, given what he's said throughout the summer.

There's something to be said for being responsible and living up to the commitments you've made. If you're not sure where you want to go, then don't commit. The downside (to the player) is that the schools you're looking at might fill up. So you commit and reserve a scholarship with your name on it--taking it away from someone else who might actually end up using it--while you decide for sure which route to take. And if you decide to go elsewhere, too bad for the school, and too bad for anyone else who might have used that scholarship. It's selfish, and it's wrong. And I'm not speaking specifically about Connor Carrick on this one. Colleges are going to have to start over-signing to protect themselves against this. Eventually the expected attrition won't happen and a kid will get screwed, which is even worse than this. I don't want college hockey as a whole to turn into the SEC.

The alarming thing is that Plymouth is starting to play the "You can still go to Michigan and play for us--we're the best of both worlds!" card. I don't know if it's legal (it's certainly dirty) but if I'm U of M, I'm withdrawing acceptances for something like that. Nip that right in the bud. You want to be a pro, go be a pro. Don't let a kid say, "Screw your silly hockey team and the commitment that I made to it, but I'll still take advantage of the academic opportunities provided by your institution." Vomit.

As for the Wolverines, they'll be fine this season. Losing a fifth-round draft pick at a position where they're fairly deep already isn't going to make or break this team. They'll take the fight to the rest of the CCHA/NCAA with players who really want to be there, like they always do. And assuming no other defections, they're fine on the blue line. Merrill, Trouba, Bennett, Moffie are the top four. Clare, Serville, Chiasson, and Szuma can compete for the last two spots. That's a good group of defensemen. The bigger loss could be a season or two down the road. At least Michigan has time to prepare for that.

The Venue: Not a Mundane Detail, Michael

So, about the OHL playing a game at Michigan Stadium thing. Not happening, from the sound of it!

After Dave Ablauf told the Michigan Daily that the rumors were "not true" this morning, Matt Slovin was able to further confirm:

[A]n OHL source with one of the teams involved informed the Daily that the league is, in fact, planning an outdoor doubleheader. The source went on to name Detroit’s Comerica Park as the most likely venue.

A couple of others asked around and heard similar things. Spath talked with Red about it and apparently got the glare. Sorry, Mike! (And sorry to Dave Brandon for blowing up his Twitter feed, though I still think that was a good exercise, just in case there were any lingering thoughts!)

As for the original source of the rumor, there's this now:

As soon as I heard last night that Comerica is likely setting up a rink I agree that that will be the site of #OHL DH Dec. 31

So as it turns out, this:

Can confirm NHL has approved the CHL request to play an outdoor DH @ Big House Dec. 31st. Teams not confirmed but LDN/SAG, WSR/PLY likely

...turned out to be not entirely true and wasn't actually based on any knowledge of the venue. The other reporter for CTV, Norman James, is now saying Comerica Park as well:

What we know at this point is that the NHL has approved a CHL request to hold multiple outdoor games December 31st in Detroit. The target venue seems to be Comerica Park, where we could see the Knights and Spitfires in action against the OHL's two Michigan based clubs.

That makes much more sense. It's closer to Windsor, closer to London, roughly the same distance from Plymouth, and no one in Saginaw gives a crap anyway. Plus you aren't making Red Berenson's head explode. Or mine.

Anyway, in hindsight, I wish I had tweeted at the original reporter and asked the "Are you sure it's the Big House and not Comerica?" question before calling in the cavalry, but he posted three different times saying basically, "confirmed request to play" "at the Big House".

For something like that, I didn't want to wait to hear it actually being confirmed before I reacted. Remember the uproar over SBC wanting to purchase the naming rights for the Michigan/Ohio football game, and how Michigan eventually called it off? To me, this story was like that. Except times a billion. 

I'm happy to hear that Michigan hasn't sold their souls, from the sound of it. There is still that tiny part of me that remembers they denied the Winter Classic rumors at first as well, but Comerica makes much more sense for a lot of reasons.

If nothing else, I got to remind everyone once again why the OHL is evil, and I like doing that. It was also really rewarding to get to see the passion in our fanbase. Thank you to everyone who immediately took up the cause. That was pretty cool to see.

Just Say No to the OHL

I don't get riled up all that often, but I saw something on Twitter tonight that needs to be stopped if there's even one hint of truth to it (and you know I'm serious since I'm more than willing to deploy single-sentence paragraphs and single word sentences in this post!):

According to a tweet by Brent Lale, a reporter for CTV in London, Ontario, the NHL has approved a request by the CHL to play an outdoor double-header at Michigan Stadium as part of the Winter Classic festivities. London vs. Saginaw and Windsor vs. Plymouth are the rumored teams. Sportsnet would be televising it.

This needs to be stopped immediately.

The OHL is a competing product. They steal our recruits. They play dirty and continue to recruit players after they've signed with colleges. They steal players during the season when it's too late for the NCAA team to replace them. They do everything they can to convince prospects that the CHL is a superior path to the NHL. Michigan should not be allowing them to use our beautiful stadium to showcase their product. 

Trevor Lewis. Jared Knight. AJ Jenks. Jack Campbell. John Gibson. Robbie Czarnik. Lucas Lessio. Tyler Swystun. Danny Richmond. Jason Bailey. All players that have committed to Michigan, signed with Michigan, or played for Michigan, before being poached by teams in the CHL in the not-so-distant past. If you want to go back further, do Mike Comrie and Mike Van Ryn ring a bell? I'm sure there are more.

To this point, I've only talked about kids affiliated with Michigan. Need more evidence? A couple of the rumored teams played roles in the mass exodus of NCAA-bound players to the OHL this summer. Plymouth signed JT Miller, a North Dakota recruit. Saginaw signed Jamie Oleksiak, a defenseman who would have been entering his sophomore year with Northeastern. Additionally, Gibson bailed from Michigan after signing a Letter of Intent. Reid Boucher, a Michigan State recruit, signed with Sarnia. Connor Murphy passed up Miami to sign with Sarnia as well. And that was all in about a week's span. Not to mention BU and BC lost a trio of much younger recruits as well.

Michigan wouldn't let Michigan State and Ohio State play an outdoor game in Michigan Stadium, and rightfully so. They're competitors. Why would you give them an opportunity for the positive publicity that an outdoor game at Michigan Stadium in conjunction with the NHL's Winter Classic would provide? You wouldn't. It would be stupid. Don't do anything to help your rivals, especially if they'd never return the favor.

The same thing applies here. The OHL is not only not a friend to college hockey, they're an enemy. Truth be told, I'd be less offended if it was FYS and Ohio State playing in our stadium than I am about the prospect about OHL teams playing there. There's no way in hell they'd extend the same invitation to a collegiate team if the situation was reversed, unless they thought there was some way that they could steal a player or two while the team was in Canada.

The NCAA, and specifically Michigan, should do NOTHING to accommodate them in any way, shape or form. If the OHL wants an outdoor game, they can host one in Canada or have it at Comerica with the rest of the ancillary events.

There have been some people that think having pro hockey in Michigan Stadium taints the Big House in some way. I don't feel the same way about the NHL, but I certainly do feel that way about the O. They don't belong anywhere near Michigan Stadium. Not as long as the playing field is so unequal with regard to poaching players. The thought of having an OHL game (or two) at the Big House is souring me on the whole thought of the Winter Classic there, and that's too bad since I'm probably one of the people who was most excited about it initially.

And the teams they're throwing around? Windsor STOLE OUR MOTHER FREAKING GOALIE (thank God for Shawn Hunwick) and they have the rights to Evan Allen and Phil Di Giuseppe. Plymouth took Robbie Czarnik mid-season, signed AJ Jenks away, and don't think for a second they didn't immediately call Jon Merrill when his suspension was announced. London signed *anny Richmon* away, landed Michigan-commit Jared Knight and convinced Max Domi to not go the college route (the latter isn't that big of a deal, but I figured I'd mention it since he was a pretty high-profile recruit). They've been one of the most troublesome OHL teams from an NCAA perspective over the years. Saginaw just acquired the rights to Boo Nieves and they have the rights to JT Compher.

None of this even includes future players that are deciding between the NCAA (specifically Michigan) and the OHL. Michigan is constantly in a battle with this league for recruits and they're constantly fighting a (one-sided) battle to keep the recruits that have already signed (or the players that are already on the friggin team). It would be the ultimate kick in the face to see Phil Di Giuseppe and Evan Allen playing at Michigan Stadium for the Windsor Spitfires next year.

This. Cannot. Happen.

I seriously urge everyone to email or tweet at Dave Brandon and make your feelings known. I'd hope that Red has as well. Based on the initial reaction from people on Twitter, I know I'm not alone in feeling this way. Maybe it's too late, or maybe it's no longer in his control. Maybe it's just a silly internet rumor that I'm freaking out about for nothing. But just on the off-chance this happens--or could happen--I don't want to sit quietly.

The OHL has no business playing a game at Michigan Stadium. They're a competitor--and not one that competes in good faith. They're not our friend. If Windsor could find a way to steal Di Giuseppe away, they'd do it in a heartbeat. We should not be helping them to market their product. The answer shouldn't be "Yes" if they ask to use the ice at Michigan Stadium. It actually shouldn't even be "No". It should be something more along the lines of, "Hell no. Go **** yourselves." Slam phone down.

I'm 100% behind the AD making money. I have a very progressive view in this regard. I'm firmly of the belief that if you don't want advertising in Michigan Stadium but you want renovations to Michigan Stadium, Crisler, and Yost, and you want a basketball practice facility, lacrosse teams, etc. that the AD needs to have the ability to host events like the Winter Classic. You're going to get Arby's sponsoring The Big Chill. It's unreasonable to ask them to ignore all these potential sources of revenue. But this is the ultimate in selling out. You'd be letting a dirty competitor come into your house, use it to help market their product, indirectly (or directly) steal players away from you, and make it harder for your own team to compete. And for the minimal amount of revenue that a pair of OHL games would provide.

This. Absolutely. Cannot. Happen.

Edit: Some good news today, as Michigan's Dave Ablauf has called the rumors "not true" and an OHL source has confirmed to the Michigan Daily's Matt Slovin that a doubleheader is in the works, but suggested that Comerica Park is the most likely location, which is how it should be.

That said, Michigan initially denied the Winter Classic rumors when they first came out. It is certainly comforting to hear that one of the OHL teams involved is saying Comerica as well, though.