I’m still not ready to talk about the Red Wings. In an interview on WXYT, Ken Holland said that everyone in the organization is going to step away for two weeks before discussing anything about the team, so I’m doing that as well before I write about what I would do with that team.
One thing I am ready to say, however, is that I’m firmly behind trading Pavel Datsyuk. Holland said that they’re not thinking that way. He pretty much blamed Datsyuk's injury for his performance in the playoffs (Sorry, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from me on this one....if he didn't already have a 20 game goalless streak in the playoffs coming into this year I might buy it....), and said that they feel one of these years he’s going to have a breakout playoffs.
I really hope that that was GM-speak and that Holland isn’t being short-sighted enough to see what’s in store in the future. Datsyuk is making $3.9 million, and he’s a free agent after next season. Barring an absolutely awful regular season next year, he’s going to be looking for big-time money in probably the $5-6 million range. And frankly he just isn’t worth it.
The way I see it, here’s the case for moving him:
1) Frees up $3.9 million to go after a more…how shall I put this…playoff-ready player…or a goalie.
2) Likely could bring in a top prospect or proven commodity in return. His flashy goals and pretty passes should give him some significant value around the league, even if he’s never done anything come playoff time.
3) After next season, you’re either going to end up overpaying him or losing him for nothing.
4) They have Jiri Hudler in the wings, who is probably the same type of player, albeit completely unproven.
5) He’s already shown that he’ll play hardball in contract negotiations.
6) Trading him means you lose 30 goals and 80 points in the regular season, but it’s a loss of exactly nothing in terms of playoff production. If you move him for a top prospect or something, and then go out and sign a guy like Sergei Samsonov (for probably less money), aren’t you coming out ahead?
Don’t get me wrong, I like Datsyuk and I love watching him play, but these playoff disappearances are getting old, and the fact that he made it such a sticking point to get a two-year contract last summer tells me he’s looking for a big payday next year. I have no problem with Datsyuk for $3.9 million. I would, however, have a problem giving 15% of our salary cap to a player with a penchant for disappearing in the playoffs or whenever someone lays a body on him.
I've probably got a couple other things to say about Datsyuk, but that'll have to wait for my season wrapup/look toward the future next week. I don't have time to do anymore today.
Monday, May 08, 2006
Monday, May 01, 2006
This is it...
Trusty Blogger wouldn't publish this last night, so here's what I wrote before the games. More to come later:
I remember this situation back in 2002. The Wings were playing the Avs and it was win 2 or go home for Detroit. Win on the road in a hostile environment or all the offseason retooling would go for naught. Win two, and the Stanley Cup was theirs (essentially). The Wings sacked up, Hasek didn't allow a goal for the rest of the series, they got a little luck in the form of the Statue of Liberty, and they advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Here we are tonight, with another elimination game on the road. Another 3-2 deficit, and another win-or-become-a-laughing-stock situation. The difference? We had Dominik Hasek before. Now we have Manny Legace and frankly, I don't have any confidence that he's going to hold Edmonton scoreless for 20 minutes, let alone 120. I was firmly on the guy's bandwagon all along, but I think Mike Rosenberg hit the nail completely on the head today. All throughout the playoffs, Legace has seemed like he'd be more comfortable if he were still the backup goalie. He's not responding to the pressure well (not like the rest of the team outside of Zetterberg is). And the fact is, if the Wings lose tonight, Legace's time in Detroit is done. It's that simple.
It may not be just him though, tonight could spell the end of an era as Steve Yzerman could be playing his last NHL game (Or with him on the sidelines, it's possible that he has played his last game). It's hard to think about, and I hope that Stevie has one of his famous speeches in store for them tonight, because they need a kick in the ass.
I'm not ready to break down my offseason changes for this team until they're dead and buried, because 2 wins, and things could completely change. Quick preview...it might not be popular, but a big change would involve #13.
I love the idea of playing Don MacLean tonight even if Yzerman can go. He was effective in his short time up with the Wings (and he did it against Edmonton of all teams). He'll go to the net and do the dirty work, and he's had the scoring touch this year. Sit Samuelsson if you have to, but get him in the lineup.
I'm not worried about the Pistons. The Bucks shot like 62% in Game 3. It won't happen again. Maybe I should be a little more worried based on what's happened with the other top seeds in the league (Spurs 2-2, Suns down 3-1, Nets 2-2, Heat 2-2), but this Bucks team just doesn't scare me. Mo Williams gets the "Scrub off the bench that destroys us for one game" award after going 9-10 in the last game. I thought you had to be white to get that award, but he is very deserving. Now he can go back to scoring 5 points in 22 minutes or whatever it is that Scalabrine, Walton, and Austin Croshere did.
By the way, how happy are the Spurs that Artest got suspended for Game 2? If he plays, San Antonio is down 3-1 right now. I'm not so sure that we won't see SA, NJ or Miami go out in the first round. Miami seems the most likely, but apart from Game 1, the Kings have been better than the Spurs and Artest is giving Ginobili fits. Phoenix is done.
I remember this situation back in 2002. The Wings were playing the Avs and it was win 2 or go home for Detroit. Win on the road in a hostile environment or all the offseason retooling would go for naught. Win two, and the Stanley Cup was theirs (essentially). The Wings sacked up, Hasek didn't allow a goal for the rest of the series, they got a little luck in the form of the Statue of Liberty, and they advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Here we are tonight, with another elimination game on the road. Another 3-2 deficit, and another win-or-become-a-laughing-stock situation. The difference? We had Dominik Hasek before. Now we have Manny Legace and frankly, I don't have any confidence that he's going to hold Edmonton scoreless for 20 minutes, let alone 120. I was firmly on the guy's bandwagon all along, but I think Mike Rosenberg hit the nail completely on the head today. All throughout the playoffs, Legace has seemed like he'd be more comfortable if he were still the backup goalie. He's not responding to the pressure well (not like the rest of the team outside of Zetterberg is). And the fact is, if the Wings lose tonight, Legace's time in Detroit is done. It's that simple.
It may not be just him though, tonight could spell the end of an era as Steve Yzerman could be playing his last NHL game (Or with him on the sidelines, it's possible that he has played his last game). It's hard to think about, and I hope that Stevie has one of his famous speeches in store for them tonight, because they need a kick in the ass.
I'm not ready to break down my offseason changes for this team until they're dead and buried, because 2 wins, and things could completely change. Quick preview...it might not be popular, but a big change would involve #13.
I love the idea of playing Don MacLean tonight even if Yzerman can go. He was effective in his short time up with the Wings (and he did it against Edmonton of all teams). He'll go to the net and do the dirty work, and he's had the scoring touch this year. Sit Samuelsson if you have to, but get him in the lineup.
I'm not worried about the Pistons. The Bucks shot like 62% in Game 3. It won't happen again. Maybe I should be a little more worried based on what's happened with the other top seeds in the league (Spurs 2-2, Suns down 3-1, Nets 2-2, Heat 2-2), but this Bucks team just doesn't scare me. Mo Williams gets the "Scrub off the bench that destroys us for one game" award after going 9-10 in the last game. I thought you had to be white to get that award, but he is very deserving. Now he can go back to scoring 5 points in 22 minutes or whatever it is that Scalabrine, Walton, and Austin Croshere did.
By the way, how happy are the Spurs that Artest got suspended for Game 2? If he plays, San Antonio is down 3-1 right now. I'm not so sure that we won't see SA, NJ or Miami go out in the first round. Miami seems the most likely, but apart from Game 1, the Kings have been better than the Spurs and Artest is giving Ginobili fits. Phoenix is done.
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
The New York Yankees of Hockey??
This is in rebuttal to Brian's reasoning for why he started hating the Red Wings, based on them being the "New York Yankees of hockey". My comment was getting way too long, so I decided to post it here instead.
This is one of my favorite topics to debate with people who are fans of small market teams. I damn near got in a fight in a bar in Buffalo over it (though that was more frustration over the screwjob against Minnesota that took place 2 hours earlier).
The Oilers have been my "second favorite" for a little while (same deal...love Comrie, love the crowd, LOVE the third jerseys). And I say "second favorite" very very loosely in that I'd never jump up and down if they won a game, but if they're playing anyone other than the Wings, chances are, I smile a little when they score.
The audacity to call ourselves Hockeytown? Eh. Our marketing department is better than yours. No big deal. I don't think there's a whole lot of people out there that necessarily believe that.
On to the finances:
I feel bad for teams that couldn't necessarily afford to keep the guys they've drafted, but like I said on the Yost Post, I don't feel like the Wings should have to apologize for the US dollar and having a rich owner.
The big difference between the Wings and the Yankees is that
1: The Yankees spend more than probably 15 teams combined. The Wings weren't so out of line with a lot of the league. The Avs, Blues, and Rangers jump right to mind as people that were right up there in terms of spending, with varying degrees of success.
2: As I said before, during their last Cup run, Hull & Robitaille were the only players that could be considered "high priced free agents" on the entire roster.
Fact is, that team had 6 free agents on it, whose total contract value was probably right around $10 million (or one Bobby Holik signing, good one Rangers). Also when you take into account that before that season, they lost one of their homegrowns in Martin Lapointe to a team that was willing to outbid them, the net that they spent on free agents was pretty minimal.
Yes you've got guys like Chelios who were deadline deals, yes you've got guys like Hasek who we traded for (and if we were a small market team we may not have been able to do that). But they were mortgaging the future to win now. Their good drafting gave them guys that they could later move for the pieces they needed.
In addition, the lack of a salary cap didn't stop teams like Calgary, Anaheim, Minnesota, Carolina and Tampa Bay from making runs at the Stanley Cup in the very recent past.
I recognize the points that have been made, and yes it has to be maddening to see your team have to give up guys like Weight when the Wings have no trouble matching a ridiculous offer to Sergei Fedorov (again, not Detroit's fault Karmanos went nuts on that one). But why should Detroit have to apologize for that? They built the bulk of their Cup teams through good drafting (Fedorov, Yzerman, Lidstrom, Konstantinov, Kozlov, ::cough:: Osgood ::cough::). It ain't their fault they can afford to keep the guys they do draft.
This is one of my favorite topics to debate with people who are fans of small market teams. I damn near got in a fight in a bar in Buffalo over it (though that was more frustration over the screwjob against Minnesota that took place 2 hours earlier).
The Oilers have been my "second favorite" for a little while (same deal...love Comrie, love the crowd, LOVE the third jerseys). And I say "second favorite" very very loosely in that I'd never jump up and down if they won a game, but if they're playing anyone other than the Wings, chances are, I smile a little when they score.
The audacity to call ourselves Hockeytown? Eh. Our marketing department is better than yours. No big deal. I don't think there's a whole lot of people out there that necessarily believe that.
On to the finances:
I feel bad for teams that couldn't necessarily afford to keep the guys they've drafted, but like I said on the Yost Post, I don't feel like the Wings should have to apologize for the US dollar and having a rich owner.
The big difference between the Wings and the Yankees is that
1: The Yankees spend more than probably 15 teams combined. The Wings weren't so out of line with a lot of the league. The Avs, Blues, and Rangers jump right to mind as people that were right up there in terms of spending, with varying degrees of success.
2: As I said before, during their last Cup run, Hull & Robitaille were the only players that could be considered "high priced free agents" on the entire roster.
Fact is, that team had 6 free agents on it, whose total contract value was probably right around $10 million (or one Bobby Holik signing, good one Rangers). Also when you take into account that before that season, they lost one of their homegrowns in Martin Lapointe to a team that was willing to outbid them, the net that they spent on free agents was pretty minimal.
Yes you've got guys like Chelios who were deadline deals, yes you've got guys like Hasek who we traded for (and if we were a small market team we may not have been able to do that). But they were mortgaging the future to win now. Their good drafting gave them guys that they could later move for the pieces they needed.
In addition, the lack of a salary cap didn't stop teams like Calgary, Anaheim, Minnesota, Carolina and Tampa Bay from making runs at the Stanley Cup in the very recent past.
I recognize the points that have been made, and yes it has to be maddening to see your team have to give up guys like Weight when the Wings have no trouble matching a ridiculous offer to Sergei Fedorov (again, not Detroit's fault Karmanos went nuts on that one). But why should Detroit have to apologize for that? They built the bulk of their Cup teams through good drafting (Fedorov, Yzerman, Lidstrom, Konstantinov, Kozlov, ::cough:: Osgood ::cough::). It ain't their fault they can afford to keep the guys they do draft.
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Dale Jr. to run Dale Sr.'s Paint Scheme
This is just absurdly cool. Dale Jr. (along with his teammates) are going to run Dale Sr.'s paint scheme at Talladega this weekend as a tribute to Sr. since it would have been his birthday this week.
Let me be the first to say that this will be the highest selling Die-Cast car of all-time. This is going to be the "Tickle Me Elmo" of die-cast cars (and yes, I have to have one...call me white trash if you want).
Can't wait to see the famous black car back on the track!
Let me be the first to say that this will be the highest selling Die-Cast car of all-time. This is going to be the "Tickle Me Elmo" of die-cast cars (and yes, I have to have one...call me white trash if you want).
Can't wait to see the famous black car back on the track!
Monday, April 24, 2006
Wings 1-1, Pistons 1-0
The Wings:
No panic yet. As long as they split in Edmonton we're still in good shape, and being that they're the best road team in the history of the National Hockey League, I'm pretty confident they'll at least split out there. It's been slightly alarming to see how poorly Mathieu Schneider has played in this series, and somewhere in the back of Ken Holland's mind he's got to be at least thinking "Crap. Has Lilja signed that deal yet?" Lang was great in game one, and was much less great in game two. Ditto Maltby and his lazy play in his own zone.
Also slightly alarming is that the Wings have only scored one legit goal in this series (Lang's). The rest have been of the garbage variety (or in Williams' case, the downright weird/borderline illegal variety). This series just seems to be going the way of series' past, and hopefully Babcock is able to handle things better than Lewie. The "it's not a trap" trap has been giving the Wings fits so far, and Roloson is trying to do his best Giguere impersonation (minus the back spasms and huge pads).
But still, no panic. I'm pretty sure Detroit can't play a lot worse than they did in game 2, and they are a stronger team on the road than they are at home. They need to be more conscious of the point, and not letting Pronger get shots off like he's been able to thusfar. Either that or they need to bring back Dmitri Mironov to take another slap shot at his chest.
Oh yeah, and that thing with Zetterberg? Penalty shot all the way.
Pistons:
Game One was just like every other game for the past two months it seems. Pistons get down early, wake up, realize that they can smoke this team if they want, Sheed gets T'ed up, make a huge run, coast the rest of the way.
There's no reason they shouldn't sweep this team. Too many matchup problems for the Bucks. Really? Magloire and Bogut against the Wallaces? Redd on Hamilton? Tiny TJ Ford on Hamilton after they decide Redd is getting worn out? As long as Rip's ankle is remotely healthy, this series isn't going more than 4. I guess if Redd shoots the absolute lights out, they could take one game, but I'm not expecting it.
Other quick thoughts on the playoffs thusfar:
-I'm pretty surprised that Colorado beat Dallas that soundly in game one. If they get out to an early lead tonight, there's going to be some doubts creeping into people's minds about Turco, as much as I hate to say it.
-Not sure why there was such a huge contingent of people picking the Rangers to do something in the playoffs. The Devils were the hottest team in the league, the Rangers choked the division away. Even if Lundqvist is great, the Devils still have Brodeur. That's a great, experience team against a team that's just happy to be in the playoffs. Not hard to see this coming. And now they're putting Kevin Weekes in and Jagr's out? They aren't winning a game in this series.
-How impressive was San Antonio with their win over Sacramento? Holy crap. So much for Artest changing that series. He did get himself suspended though.
-Indiana taking down New Jersey is another shocker. I can't decide how I want that series to go. On one hand, it'd be nice to have NJ eliminated in round one, because it just makes Detroit's road that much easier. On the other hand, it gives Miami a much easier second round matchup (assuming they win) and we'd only have to play one of those two teams anyway, so maybe it's best that they just bang on each other in the second round. Plus I hate Indiana.
Trevor Lewis and Aaron Palushaj each had an assist in Des Moines 2-0 win in game one of the USHL Championship best of five series. Louie Caporusso had an assist on the OPJHL Championship winning goal for St. Mike's and they're off to the Hewitt Cup again. It looks like there will be some streaming video for those games. Nice to see some of our guys getting big game experience. Though sadly, it won't help them at Michigan unless they're getting "Losing in Overtime" experience.
And lastly, we're getting Ryan Mallet. That should help with the recruiting eh? Too bad he's not a point guard.
No panic yet. As long as they split in Edmonton we're still in good shape, and being that they're the best road team in the history of the National Hockey League, I'm pretty confident they'll at least split out there. It's been slightly alarming to see how poorly Mathieu Schneider has played in this series, and somewhere in the back of Ken Holland's mind he's got to be at least thinking "Crap. Has Lilja signed that deal yet?" Lang was great in game one, and was much less great in game two. Ditto Maltby and his lazy play in his own zone.
Also slightly alarming is that the Wings have only scored one legit goal in this series (Lang's). The rest have been of the garbage variety (or in Williams' case, the downright weird/borderline illegal variety). This series just seems to be going the way of series' past, and hopefully Babcock is able to handle things better than Lewie. The "it's not a trap" trap has been giving the Wings fits so far, and Roloson is trying to do his best Giguere impersonation (minus the back spasms and huge pads).
But still, no panic. I'm pretty sure Detroit can't play a lot worse than they did in game 2, and they are a stronger team on the road than they are at home. They need to be more conscious of the point, and not letting Pronger get shots off like he's been able to thusfar. Either that or they need to bring back Dmitri Mironov to take another slap shot at his chest.
Oh yeah, and that thing with Zetterberg? Penalty shot all the way.
Pistons:
Game One was just like every other game for the past two months it seems. Pistons get down early, wake up, realize that they can smoke this team if they want, Sheed gets T'ed up, make a huge run, coast the rest of the way.
There's no reason they shouldn't sweep this team. Too many matchup problems for the Bucks. Really? Magloire and Bogut against the Wallaces? Redd on Hamilton? Tiny TJ Ford on Hamilton after they decide Redd is getting worn out? As long as Rip's ankle is remotely healthy, this series isn't going more than 4. I guess if Redd shoots the absolute lights out, they could take one game, but I'm not expecting it.
Other quick thoughts on the playoffs thusfar:
-I'm pretty surprised that Colorado beat Dallas that soundly in game one. If they get out to an early lead tonight, there's going to be some doubts creeping into people's minds about Turco, as much as I hate to say it.
-Not sure why there was such a huge contingent of people picking the Rangers to do something in the playoffs. The Devils were the hottest team in the league, the Rangers choked the division away. Even if Lundqvist is great, the Devils still have Brodeur. That's a great, experience team against a team that's just happy to be in the playoffs. Not hard to see this coming. And now they're putting Kevin Weekes in and Jagr's out? They aren't winning a game in this series.
-How impressive was San Antonio with their win over Sacramento? Holy crap. So much for Artest changing that series. He did get himself suspended though.
-Indiana taking down New Jersey is another shocker. I can't decide how I want that series to go. On one hand, it'd be nice to have NJ eliminated in round one, because it just makes Detroit's road that much easier. On the other hand, it gives Miami a much easier second round matchup (assuming they win) and we'd only have to play one of those two teams anyway, so maybe it's best that they just bang on each other in the second round. Plus I hate Indiana.
Trevor Lewis and Aaron Palushaj each had an assist in Des Moines 2-0 win in game one of the USHL Championship best of five series. Louie Caporusso had an assist on the OPJHL Championship winning goal for St. Mike's and they're off to the Hewitt Cup again. It looks like there will be some streaming video for those games. Nice to see some of our guys getting big game experience. Though sadly, it won't help them at Michigan unless they're getting "Losing in Overtime" experience.
And lastly, we're getting Ryan Mallet. That should help with the recruiting eh? Too bad he's not a point guard.
Friday, April 21, 2006
NHL Eastern Conference Review
In case it gets buried beneath this gigantic post, I posted my predictions for the NBA & NHL playoffs below.
Oh the humanity! As good as my predictions were in the Western Conference, that’s how bad they were in the East. Actually, bad doesn’t begin to cover it. Check out two of the top three for instance:
1. Boston Bruins (actual finish 13th, 39 points out of 1st):
Might as well just go in the tank right from the start. This team had 100+ points two of the last three seasons, and brought back almost everyone from a team that finished 2nd in the East before the lockout.
Isbister didn’t do anything, the net of the Joe Thornton trade (Sturm, Stuart, Primeau) didn’t match what Thornton alone put up, Andrew Raycroft was awful and ended up getting benched and almost traded. Boyes and Bergeron were the only bright spots of this season for the team from Beantown. I’m really still not sure what happened to this team.
2. Ottawa Senators (actual finish 1st, 1 point out of second):
And there you have it. This was probably the most accurate thing that I wrote in the Eastern Conference preview. Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson went a quarter of the season without failing to net points. Smolinski, Redden, Phillips and Volchenkov had great years and Chara was a darkhorse candidate for the Norris. Hasek was outstanding until he got hurt (shock me shock me) and with him out and with Emery struggling as of late, this promising season might go up in smoke for them, as predicted. If Hasek’s back, they can win it though.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins (actual finish 15th, 43 points out of 3rd):
Please don’t read the following paragraph if you want my predictions to have any sense of credibility in the future:
What I meant to write was this: ”The NHL’s biggest disappointment without question. They added Recchi, Gonchar, Palffy, LeClair, Thibault and Crosby. Sid the Kid will live up to expectations, Gonchar, Recchi and LeClair will have good years (though Recchi will be moved at the deadline), Palffy will retire midseason along with Lemieux, and Thibault will be waived after starting 1-9 with a 4.5 GAA.”
Only a couple late losses by St. Louis kept my “Contender” from being the worst team in hockey. Plain and simple, this team just couldn’t keep the puck out of their own net and they didn’t have enough scoring depth (Crosby was in on almost half this team’s goals). With Lemieux and Palffy for the whole year they probably would have won some more games (as both were on a point-a-game pace), but the defensive problems would have remained. Pittsburgh needs Erik Johnson bad. With Malkin coming over, either of the top forwards would be a major luxury. They need defense in the worst way.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (actual finish 8th, 18 points out of 4th):
Calling this team “still loaded” may have been a little strong, but they did bring back Richards, Lecavlier, and St. Louis, and Prospal returned to Tampa. I never would have believed that St. Louis’s numbers would have fallen off by 30+ points with the new rules being implemented. If Gionta is going for 40+, there’s no reason that St. Louis should have only netted 31 this year.
Goaltending was in fact a big part of the problem as neither Sean Burke nor John Grahame provided anything positive in net. The Bolts allowed the most goals of any playoff team. Not that Khabi did well in Chicago this year, but you gotta believe they wish they had filled the hole in goal better.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (actual finish t-3, 5th after the tiebreaker):
A second surprisingly accurate pick. I didn’t buy into the preseason hype of the Flyers:
Forsberg was excellent for them, even though he missed his required 20 games due to injury. Hatcher wasn’t the pylon I thought he’d be, Rathje had a very nice year, and Mike Knuble (who is MUCH better in real life than he is on NHL2k6) put in 34 goals for them.
The goaltending wasn’t so good though. Both Esche and Olympic sensation Niittymaki posted 2.97 GAAs, and neither cracked .900 in save percentage. Simon Gagne wasn’t mentioned in my preview, and he knocked in 47 goals this year, and led the league for a fair amount of time.
6. Atlanta Thrashers (actual finish T-9, 10 points out of 6th):
This position appears like it was very optimistic for them, but when you take into account that starting goalie Kari Lehtonen missed upwards of 40 games due to a groin injury and they replaced him with Steve Shields, Adam Berkhoel, Mike Dunham, and Michael Garnett you have to start to think that maybe this team could have made the playoffs at the very least.
Kovalchuk, Hossa, and Savard nearly matched Ottawa’s top line in production, and Slava Kozlov had a very nice year as well.
Bondra was in fact good for them, putting in 21-18—39 in 60 games. Lehtonen was impressive in net, but the group that filled in while he was hurt pretty much killed any chance this team had of making the playoffs.
7. New Jersey Devils (actual finish t-3rd, 8 points out of 7th):
A late season run of 11 straight wins elevated the Devils up to the 3rd seed from the playoff bubble. This team started the year horribly, but after the resignation of their coach and after Elias returned from a bout with Hep A, they caught fire. The top seeds in the conference breathed a sigh of relief that NJ ended up winning their division, because no 1 or 2 seed wanted to face them in the first round.
Gionta’s a good player. Yeah. Or he’s gonna go ahead and almost score 50 goals. Who saw that one coming? Mogilny missed a ton of time but did manage to put in 25 points. Elias averaged over a point per game after he returned. The defense is still a question mark. Rafalski was great for them and Paul Martin had a good season, but beyond that there’s probably not anyone that would dress for the Red Wings as more than a #6 dman. Though when you have Martin Brodeur, sometimes things like that don’t matter.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs (actual finish 9th, 2 points out of 8th):
The natives can’t be happy about this one. The face of Canadian hockey (well, one of the two highest profile Canadian franchises) out of the playoffs.
Lindros didn’t make it through the season, only playing 33 games. Allison did however, and he put in the expected 60 points.
Belfour had a horrible year and Tellqvist didn’t fare much better. Toronto had something going with JS Aubin in net though. He was 9-0 in 11 games with a 2.21 .924, and nearly sparked a run to get the Leafs into the postseason. Too bad they weren’t able to trade a bag of pucks for Zetterberg like Toronto fans seemed to think they could.
9. Florida Panthers (actual finish 11th, 5 points out of 9th):
Their free agent signings were very good ones. Only Eric Cairns didn’t help, and he was moved to Pittsburgh. Hill didn’t do as much as they probably expected. They still need to give Luongo a little bit more help back on defense, and that’s probably the reason that they missed the playoffs. Olli Jokinen developed into an excellent player and it was a great move for the future of the franchise to get him locked up long-term. Horton and Bouwmeester are developing nicely.
(Still waiting for #2 seed Carolina? Keep reading!!)
10. New York Islanders (actual finish 12th, 12 points out of 10th):
Miro Satan did come in and help the team, but Yashin is still underachieving. His contract may be the worst one in pro sports right now, and they missed their chance to get out of it last year with the buyouts. He did put in 66 points, but for the amount of money they’re paying him, he needs to be up in the 90s.
DiPietro had a decent season, but as I said, you have to believe they wish they hadn’t moved Luongo in one of the more curious trades we’ve seen. Finally Mike Milbury has moved on, and maybe this franchise will get back to respectability. I can’t believe he lasted as long as he did.
This is where it gets fun:
11. Montreal Canadiens (actual finish 7th, 8 points out of 11th):
Well, Theodore had far from a Vezina-caliber season and was eventually moved to Colorado in what might turn out to be the most irrelevant big-names trade in history. Cristobel Huet took the reigns and was the goalie that, with some more ice time, would have been in the running for the Vezina. He led the league in save percentage and posted 7 shutouts in just 29 decisions. So it did in fact take a super effort out of a goalie to get this team in the playoffs. I just didn’t have the goalie right.
Ryder had a great year, leading the team in goals, and Ribeiro joined the 50-50 club (50 points, 50 dives). Chris Higgins burst onto the scene for 23 goals.
I think I had this team pegged pretty well, despite being 4 spots off on their finish.
12. Carolina Hurricanes (actual finish 2nd, 34 points out of 12th):
Yikes. I did not have this team pegged as a potential Presidents Trophy candidate (though I’m sure not many people did). I actually had some nice things to say about the team:
Whitney did in fact have a nice year for them. Calling Eric Staal a “very nice young player” was the understatement of the year. He had 100 points and 45 goals. Gerber was solid in net, and much better than Weekes and Irbe. Tverdovsky didn’t do a ton for them. Erik Cole was a big loss for this team when he went out with an injury. Brind’Amour had a helluva year for them.
13. New York Rangers (actual finish 6th, 26 points out of 13th):
Holy Jagr! The season off obviously did him some good, scoring 123 points and 54 goals throughout the year. They were pretty much a two-line team, but those 2 lines were good enough when combined with stellar goaltending out of Henrik Lundqvist, who deserves all the credit in the world for his performance this year (both in the NHL and the Olympics). A 2.24 and a .927 out of a rookie goalie? Yeah, they’ll take that.
I guess we have an answer to that one!
Rookie Petr Prucha put in 30 goals as well, and added a nice scoring threat to their second line. Rucchin helped out, as I thought he would, and Straka had 50+ assists. Kasparaitis wasn’t as useless as I thought he’d be—actually ended up on the + side of the +/- stat, which I never would have imagined. The defense was solidified by Marek Malik (who had one of the prettiest goals of the year in that lengthy shootout) and Michal Rozsival. Peter Sykora was a nice midseason pickup as well. Their front office did a very nice job this year turning a perennial underachiever into a team that nearly won the division.
14. Buffalo Sabres (actual finish 4th, 40 points out of 14th):
Yes you did read that right. 4 straight playoff teams in my 11-14 spots including the 2 and 4 seeds (and nearly the 3rd seed as well).
Ugh. Well I did have a few things right. Numminen put up 30-50 points (actually dead in the middle of that). Drury didn’t carry the offensive load, but I didn’t see this team spreading things around as much as they did with 6 20 goal scorers, and 11 in double-digits. They did finally do something with Noronen at the deadline, and he didn’t help the Canucks as much as he didn’t help the Sabres this year.
Ryan Miller was awesome in net, and the USA has to wish they would’ve put him on the Olympic roster.
Like the Red Wings, they are a team that is hoping and praying the referees call the game in the playoffs the way they did in the regular season, because their special teams were outstanding this year.
15. Washington Capitals (actual finish 14th, 12 points out of 15th):
They were in fact the “Alex Ovechkins”. Alexander the Gr8 scored 106 points and led his team by an incredible margin of 49 points. He was in on roughly half of his team’s goals this year. Even though Crosby had a great year, it would be a travesty if Ovechkin doesn’t get the Calder (I could live with Lundqvist getting it as well).
Yup.
So I was much worse in the East than I was in the West. I hit on just 4 of the 8 playoff teams, and 2 of my top 3 teams in the conference didn’t get in—and one of them just missed out on being the worst team in hockey. I was within 1 position on just 4 of the 15 teams in the conference, and was double digit points away from their correct seed on 9 of the teams.
Overall I don’t think picking 10 of the 16 playoff teams is all that bad in a year with this much turnover on rosters and two full rookie crops coming into the league. I obviously did better with the conference that I follow more closely. I do feel good that I had the Wings still pegged as an elite team when almost no one game them a chance.
I’ll try to do better next year!
Oh the humanity! As good as my predictions were in the Western Conference, that’s how bad they were in the East. Actually, bad doesn’t begin to cover it. Check out two of the top three for instance:
1. Boston Bruins (actual finish 13th, 39 points out of 1st):
Might as well just go in the tank right from the start. This team had 100+ points two of the last three seasons, and brought back almost everyone from a team that finished 2nd in the East before the lockout.
They had a ton of free-agents and managed to get most of them signed. Hilbert
wants out, and Boynton isn’t signed, but the B’s managed to lock up pretty much
everyone else. They lost Gonchar and brought in Leetch. Brad Isbister is a
player that you never hear a ton about but still puts up some pretty decent
numbers. They’re a team that I wasn’t quite sure what to do with, but when you
look at the rosters, it’s quite possible that they’re the best team in the East.
Deep up front, decent defense (though if they get Boynton signed, they’re set on
the blue line), and a proven goalie. They return almost everyone from a team
that finished 2nd in the East before the lockout.
Isbister didn’t do anything, the net of the Joe Thornton trade (Sturm, Stuart, Primeau) didn’t match what Thornton alone put up, Andrew Raycroft was awful and ended up getting benched and almost traded. Boyes and Bergeron were the only bright spots of this season for the team from Beantown. I’m really still not sure what happened to this team.
2. Ottawa Senators (actual finish 1st, 1 point out of second):
A solid all-around team that finally has a goalie capable of taking them to the
Cup (if he stays healthy of course). Heatley/Spezza is one of the best young
duos in the league, Brandon Bochenski had a great year in the AHL last year and
Daniel Alfredsson/Bryan Smolinski on the second line isn’t a bad thing. Redden,
Chara, Phillips, Volchenkov is a nice top four back on D. Ottawa is a new start
for Dany Heatley and he could thrive in his new
environment.
Biggest Question Mark: Dominik Hasek staying healthy.
If he’s playing, the Senators are a legit threat to win the Cup. If he’s out,
they’re not. That simple. And with Hasek’s history, it’s a major question mark
if he’ll make it through the year.
And there you have it. This was probably the most accurate thing that I wrote in the Eastern Conference preview. Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson went a quarter of the season without failing to net points. Smolinski, Redden, Phillips and Volchenkov had great years and Chara was a darkhorse candidate for the Norris. Hasek was outstanding until he got hurt (shock me shock me) and with him out and with Emery struggling as of late, this promising season might go up in smoke for them, as predicted. If Hasek’s back, they can win it though.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins (actual finish 15th, 43 points out of 3rd):
Please don’t read the following paragraph if you want my predictions to have any sense of credibility in the future:
The NHL’s most improved team without question. They go from laughing-stock to
contender by adding Mark Recchi, Sergei Gonchar, Ziggy Palffy, John Leclair,
Jocelyn Thibault, and oh yeah, some guy named Crosby. Lemieux has had a year off
to rest and he should be ready to go. Their defense isn’t real deep, but
Thibault is used to that, having played in Chicago and fared pretty well in the
process. What he never had in Chicago was this kind of offensive firepower.
What I meant to write was this: ”The NHL’s biggest disappointment without question. They added Recchi, Gonchar, Palffy, LeClair, Thibault and Crosby. Sid the Kid will live up to expectations, Gonchar, Recchi and LeClair will have good years (though Recchi will be moved at the deadline), Palffy will retire midseason along with Lemieux, and Thibault will be waived after starting 1-9 with a 4.5 GAA.”
Only a couple late losses by St. Louis kept my “Contender” from being the worst team in hockey. Plain and simple, this team just couldn’t keep the puck out of their own net and they didn’t have enough scoring depth (Crosby was in on almost half this team’s goals). With Lemieux and Palffy for the whole year they probably would have won some more games (as both were on a point-a-game pace), but the defensive problems would have remained. Pittsburgh needs Erik Johnson bad. With Malkin coming over, either of the top forwards would be a major luxury. They need defense in the worst way.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (actual finish 8th, 18 points out of 4th):
Calling this team “still loaded” may have been a little strong, but they did bring back Richards, Lecavlier, and St. Louis, and Prospal returned to Tampa. I never would have believed that St. Louis’s numbers would have fallen off by 30+ points with the new rules being implemented. If Gionta is going for 40+, there’s no reason that St. Louis should have only netted 31 this year.
Biggest Question Mark: Once again, the goaltending in Khabibulin’s absence.
They’re going to score goals. We know that. Can they keep them out of their own
net? We’ll see.
Goaltending was in fact a big part of the problem as neither Sean Burke nor John Grahame provided anything positive in net. The Bolts allowed the most goals of any playoff team. Not that Khabi did well in Chicago this year, but you gotta believe they wish they had filled the hole in goal better.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (actual finish t-3, 5th after the tiebreaker):
A second surprisingly accurate pick. I didn’t buy into the preseason hype of the Flyers:
All anyone wants to talk about in handing the Flyers the 2006 Stanley Cup are
the acquisitions the team made in the offseason. Forsberg, Hatcher, Rathje,
Knuble. Bobby Clarke did a great job, no doubt. But they also lost Roenick,
Burke, Zhamnov, Leclair, Recchi, Amonte. That said, if you look at their roster,
they’re in really good shape. Add the above acquisitions to top-prospects Mike
Richards and Jeff Carter along with an exisiting solid group and they’re going
to fare pretty well this year. Just maybe not as well as everyone seems to
think. Esche has done pretty well for them so far, but I’m not sold on him as a
Cup-winning-caliber goaltender.
Forsberg was excellent for them, even though he missed his required 20 games due to injury. Hatcher wasn’t the pylon I thought he’d be, Rathje had a very nice year, and Mike Knuble (who is MUCH better in real life than he is on NHL2k6) put in 34 goals for them.
The goaltending wasn’t so good though. Both Esche and Olympic sensation Niittymaki posted 2.97 GAAs, and neither cracked .900 in save percentage. Simon Gagne wasn’t mentioned in my preview, and he knocked in 47 goals this year, and led the league for a fair amount of time.
6. Atlanta Thrashers (actual finish T-9, 10 points out of 6th):
This position appears like it was very optimistic for them, but when you take into account that starting goalie Kari Lehtonen missed upwards of 40 games due to a groin injury and they replaced him with Steve Shields, Adam Berkhoel, Mike Dunham, and Michael Garnett you have to start to think that maybe this team could have made the playoffs at the very least.
Kovalchuk, Hossa, and Savard nearly matched Ottawa’s top line in production, and Slava Kozlov had a very nice year as well.
They’ve got a great young team and will be a force in the years to come. They
may be a year away from being a true-contender, but the years of the Thrashers
being a joke are over. The one thing they’re missing is a true #1
defenseman.
Biggest Gain: Peter Bondra. He didn’t perform like
Ottawa hoped, but I think he’s got another year or two in the tank and they got
him for a bargain price.
Biggest Question Mark: No-name defense and
a young goalie. How will they hold up? Lehtonen is a stud prospect, the defense
is more iffy.
Bondra was in fact good for them, putting in 21-18—39 in 60 games. Lehtonen was impressive in net, but the group that filled in while he was hurt pretty much killed any chance this team had of making the playoffs.
7. New Jersey Devils (actual finish t-3rd, 8 points out of 7th):
A late season run of 11 straight wins elevated the Devils up to the 3rd seed from the playoff bubble. This team started the year horribly, but after the resignation of their coach and after Elias returned from a bout with Hep A, they caught fire. The top seeds in the conference breathed a sigh of relief that NJ ended up winning their division, because no 1 or 2 seed wanted to face them in the first round.
That said, Gomez, Kozlov, Madden, Parise is a nice group of centers, Elias will
be back, Rafalski is still around and he should do very well with the new rules,
and Mogilny, Langenbruner and Gionta are good players as well.
Gionta’s a good player. Yeah. Or he’s gonna go ahead and almost score 50 goals. Who saw that one coming? Mogilny missed a ton of time but did manage to put in 25 points. Elias averaged over a point per game after he returned. The defense is still a question mark. Rafalski was great for them and Paul Martin had a good season, but beyond that there’s probably not anyone that would dress for the Red Wings as more than a #6 dman. Though when you have Martin Brodeur, sometimes things like that don’t matter.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs (actual finish 9th, 2 points out of 8th):
The natives can’t be happy about this one. The face of Canadian hockey (well, one of the two highest profile Canadian franchises) out of the playoffs.
I want to like this team, but I just can’t. The defense corps looks shaky, they
look good up front for now, but what if Lindros and Allison don’t make it
through the season? The East is pretty solid all-around, and I feel like any
team that makes the playoffs has a chance to come out as conference champs, but
I think the Leafs are closer to the bottom than the top in the
conference.
Eric Lindros and Jason Allison were bargain signings,
but they’re boom or bust players. If they’re both healthy all year, Toronto gets
a pair of 60+ point players for under 3 million combined. If they get hurt, as
has been the case (Allison hasn’t played since 02-03 and Lindros is a concussion
waiting to happen) Toronto doesn’t look good up front at all.
Lindros didn’t make it through the season, only playing 33 games. Allison did however, and he put in the expected 60 points.
Belfour had a horrible year and Tellqvist didn’t fare much better. Toronto had something going with JS Aubin in net though. He was 9-0 in 11 games with a 2.21 .924, and nearly sparked a run to get the Leafs into the postseason. Too bad they weren’t able to trade a bag of pucks for Zetterberg like Toronto fans seemed to think they could.
9. Florida Panthers (actual finish 11th, 5 points out of 9th):
They were a busy team in free agency, landing Sean Hill, Eric Cairns, Joe
Nieuwendyk, Chris Gratton, Jozef Stumpel, Gary Roberts, and Martin Gelinas.
They’re also loaded in young prospects and have one of the best goalies in the
league in Roberto Luongo. They’re a playoff team in a conference that has 9 of
them. Sadly, there are only 8 spots in the postseason. It won’t be long. They
just don’t have that dominant scorer to put them over the top.
Their free agent signings were very good ones. Only Eric Cairns didn’t help, and he was moved to Pittsburgh. Hill didn’t do as much as they probably expected. They still need to give Luongo a little bit more help back on defense, and that’s probably the reason that they missed the playoffs. Olli Jokinen developed into an excellent player and it was a great move for the future of the franchise to get him locked up long-term. Horton and Bouwmeester are developing nicely.
(Still waiting for #2 seed Carolina? Keep reading!!)
10. New York Islanders (actual finish 12th, 12 points out of 10th):
Miro Satan did come in and help the team, but Yashin is still underachieving. His contract may be the worst one in pro sports right now, and they missed their chance to get out of it last year with the buyouts. He did put in 66 points, but for the amount of money they’re paying him, he needs to be up in the 90s.
DiPietro had a decent season, but as I said, you have to believe they wish they hadn’t moved Luongo in one of the more curious trades we’ve seen. Finally Mike Milbury has moved on, and maybe this franchise will get back to respectability. I can’t believe he lasted as long as he did.
This is where it gets fun:
11. Montreal Canadiens (actual finish 7th, 8 points out of 11th):
So who exactly are these guys? After you get past Kovalev, Koivu, and Theodore
they’re a mix of no-namers and young prospects with some depth players (Zednik,
Dandenault, Souray, Bonk) thrown in for good measure. Ryder is going to be a
good player, as is Rycroft [Ed note: This should have read Ribeiro], even though
I think he’s a flopper. They cycled a lot of guys in and out in free agency but
nothing jumps out good or bad really. Can’t see them in the playoffs this year
unless Theodore has a Vezina-caliber season.
Well, Theodore had far from a Vezina-caliber season and was eventually moved to Colorado in what might turn out to be the most irrelevant big-names trade in history. Cristobel Huet took the reigns and was the goalie that, with some more ice time, would have been in the running for the Vezina. He led the league in save percentage and posted 7 shutouts in just 29 decisions. So it did in fact take a super effort out of a goalie to get this team in the playoffs. I just didn’t have the goalie right.
Ryder had a great year, leading the team in goals, and Ribeiro joined the 50-50 club (50 points, 50 dives). Chris Higgins burst onto the scene for 23 goals.
I think I had this team pegged pretty well, despite being 4 spots off on their finish.
12. Carolina Hurricanes (actual finish 2nd, 34 points out of 12th):
Yikes. I did not have this team pegged as a potential Presidents Trophy candidate (though I’m sure not many people did). I actually had some nice things to say about the team:
They did a nice job in the offseason recovering from the losses of Jeff O’Neill
and Ron Francis. Ray Whitney disappeared with the Red Wings, but might thrive
when he can get some more ice time. Eric Staal is a very nice young player and
the defense corps looks very solid. Martin Gerber put up great numbers in goal
for Anaheim, but hasn’t been tested as a full-time starter. They could challenge
for a playoff spot much of the year, but they’re going to come up short because
there are too many teams that are just better than they
are.
Biggest Gain: Martin Gerber. He may or may not be the answer,
but Irbe and Weekes definitely weren’t. Bringing Tverdovsky in was another good
move by Jim Rutherford.
Whitney did in fact have a nice year for them. Calling Eric Staal a “very nice young player” was the understatement of the year. He had 100 points and 45 goals. Gerber was solid in net, and much better than Weekes and Irbe. Tverdovsky didn’t do a ton for them. Erik Cole was a big loss for this team when he went out with an injury. Brind’Amour had a helluva year for them.
13. New York Rangers (actual finish 6th, 26 points out of 13th):
No team should be happier to see the salary cap come into the picture. Now they
can’t overspend for average players and get nothing out of them. No more Bobby
Holik, Valeri Kamensky, Eric Lindros signings in NYC. They should welcome that.
They did manage to add Straka and stole Steve Rucchin from the Ducks. The
defense is iffy with Tom Poti as their best defenseman. Kasparaitis may be
completely useless in the new NHL. Goaltending is a question mark as well. They
have great prospects, but Kevin Weekes is currently the starter. That ain’t
gonna get it done.
Holy Jagr! The season off obviously did him some good, scoring 123 points and 54 goals throughout the year. They were pretty much a two-line team, but those 2 lines were good enough when combined with stellar goaltending out of Henrik Lundqvist, who deserves all the credit in the world for his performance this year (both in the NHL and the Olympics). A 2.24 and a .927 out of a rookie goalie? Yeah, they’ll take that.
Which goalie prospect will end up grabbing the reins as the future? Lundqvist or
Montoya?
I guess we have an answer to that one!
Rookie Petr Prucha put in 30 goals as well, and added a nice scoring threat to their second line. Rucchin helped out, as I thought he would, and Straka had 50+ assists. Kasparaitis wasn’t as useless as I thought he’d be—actually ended up on the + side of the +/- stat, which I never would have imagined. The defense was solidified by Marek Malik (who had one of the prettiest goals of the year in that lengthy shootout) and Michal Rozsival. Peter Sykora was a nice midseason pickup as well. Their front office did a very nice job this year turning a perennial underachiever into a team that nearly won the division.
14. Buffalo Sabres (actual finish 4th, 40 points out of 14th):
Yes you did read that right. 4 straight playoff teams in my 11-14 spots including the 2 and 4 seeds (and nearly the 3rd seed as well).
They weren’t good last season and they lost their two best forwards in the
offseason (Satan and Zhitnik). Drury is a good player, but he’s not going to
carry the offensive load for anyone. The defense corps doesn’t look good despite
the acquisition of Teppo Numminen. At some point don’t they have to do something
with one of their three goalies (Biron, Miller, Noronen)? Thomas Vanek of
tainted 2003 OT goal against Michigan fame is in the lineup full-time now, after
a great year in the AHL.
Biggest Gain: Numminen. As mentioned in
the Dallas preview, he kind of disappointed there, but he’s still a guy that can
put up 30-50 points and play pretty decent defense in the
process.
Biggest Question Mark: How long til next season?
Ugh. Well I did have a few things right. Numminen put up 30-50 points (actually dead in the middle of that). Drury didn’t carry the offensive load, but I didn’t see this team spreading things around as much as they did with 6 20 goal scorers, and 11 in double-digits. They did finally do something with Noronen at the deadline, and he didn’t help the Canucks as much as he didn’t help the Sabres this year.
Ryan Miller was awesome in net, and the USA has to wish they would’ve put him on the Olympic roster.
Like the Red Wings, they are a team that is hoping and praying the referees call the game in the playoffs the way they did in the regular season, because their special teams were outstanding this year.
15. Washington Capitals (actual finish 14th, 12 points out of 15th):
They were in fact the “Alex Ovechkins”. Alexander the Gr8 scored 106 points and led his team by an incredible margin of 49 points. He was in on roughly half of his team’s goals this year. Even though Crosby had a great year, it would be a travesty if Ovechkin doesn’t get the Calder (I could live with Lundqvist getting it as well).
Biggest Question Mark: Can Ovechkin steal the spotlight from Crosby in their
rookie years?
Yup.
So I was much worse in the East than I was in the West. I hit on just 4 of the 8 playoff teams, and 2 of my top 3 teams in the conference didn’t get in—and one of them just missed out on being the worst team in hockey. I was within 1 position on just 4 of the 15 teams in the conference, and was double digit points away from their correct seed on 9 of the teams.
Overall I don’t think picking 10 of the 16 playoff teams is all that bad in a year with this much turnover on rosters and two full rookie crops coming into the league. I obviously did better with the conference that I follow more closely. I do feel good that I had the Wings still pegged as an elite team when almost no one game them a chance.
I’ll try to do better next year!
NHL/NBA Playoff Picks
The quest for the double-championship for the D begins tonight with game one of the Wings/Oilers. Tonight starts the best six weeks of the year (the pinnacle of which is next Saturday…NFL Draft all day, Wings at 3, Pistons at 8). I want to see a double parade, with Rasheed Wallace holding up the Stanley Cup, and Stevie Y wearing Sheed’s championship belt. Tonight starts the chance to salvage what has been the worst year of my sports-watching life.
The NHL Eastern Conference Retrospective will probably be up later today (as long as it stays quiet at work). This has to be done today though, so it got priority.
The picks, without a ton of analysis because frankly it’s too much work to do an NHL and NBA playoff preview. Let’s get the picks down on paper and the analysis will come later:
NHL Round One:
Detroit over Edmonton in 5—Too much fire power, better goaltending.
Dallas over Colorado in 4—Colorado is the weakest team in the tournament, Dallas is solid all around.
Calgary over Anaheim in 7—Battle of the 2 best goalies in the conference, Kipper is a little bit better.
San Jose over Nashville in 6—With Vokoun, this is the premier matchup in the first round, without him I don’t expect SJ to have a ton of trouble getting by the Preds.
Ottawa over Tampa in 7—With Hasek they breeze through this series. I don’t think Tampa has the goaltending to pull the upset though. Too much Alfredsson/Heatley/Spezza.
Carolina over Montreal in 7—Huet makes this a better series than expected.
Devils over Rangers in 6—The Devils are rolling, the Rags are struggling, Brodeur is the only legit playoff goalie in the East with Hasek’s absence.
Sabres over Flyers in 6—I don’t trust Philly’s goaltending at all.
NHL Round Two:
Detroit over San Jose in 6—Lidstrom and the Draper line shut down Thornton and Cheechoo. Not enough behind them for the Sharks.
Dallas over Calgary in 7—Great series ends in an overtime thriller (and I waffled about which team would win). Not enough scoring depth on the Flames.
Ottawa over Buffalo in 6—I hate Ryan Miller.
New Jersey over Carolina in 7—Should be an outstanding series. I like Brodeur over Gerber.
NHL Round Three:
Wings over Dallas in 6—They still have Turco’s number, and the Stars won’t get the benefit of seeing Ozzie in net or having shootouts.
New Jersey over Ottawa in 6—I just don’t see Ray Emery in the Finals. If Hasek comes back, we might have to revisit this one.
Stanley Cup Finals:
Wings over New Jersey in 6—Revenge for 1995. The Captain goes out on top.
NBA Round One:
Pistons over Bucks in 4—Get that train rolling right out of the gate.
Heat over Bulls in 6—Chicago is playing well, and Miami hasn’t been overly impressive as of late, but there’s still not enough to overcome a team that will probably have the two best players in any series they play in.
New Jersey over Indiana in 5—The Pacers aren’t a good team and New Jersey has been on a role lately.
Cleveland over Washington in 7—Lebron/Arenas should be a great matchup, and in the end James does the Pistons a favor and takes out the Wizards.
San Antonio over Sacramento in 5—Artest might get them a win, maybe two, but the Champs aren’t going down in Round 1.
Phoenix over LA in 6—I don’t think Kobe alone is enough to beat the Suns. He’ll make it fun though.
Nuggets over Clippers in 7—When in doubt, take the team with the best player.
Mavericks over Grizzlies in 5—Sets up the 2nd Round Conference Final matchup.
NBA Round Two:
Detroit over Cleveland in 5—LeBron makes it interesting, but they ain’t winning in Detroit and I don’t think they take two in a row from the Pistons in Cleveland. It won’t go more than 6.
New Jersey over Miami in 6—Wade/Shaq vs. Jefferson/Kidd/Carter should be fun to watch. I’ll take 3 over 2.
San Antonio over Dallas in 7—Home court makes all the difference. Great series.
Phoenix over Denver in 5—PHX gets some time to rest while SA/Dallas slug it out.
NBA Round Three:
Detroit over New Jersey in 6—I took 3 over 2, but I’ll take 5 over 3.
San Antonio over Phoenix in 7—Back to back slugfests for the defending Champions, setting up a rematch of last year’s Finals.
NBA Championship:
Detroit over San Antonio in 6—This year, the Pistons have home court, bitches. Detroit goes up 2-0, comes back home up 3-2 and takes care of business in Game 6. The rebounding edge Detroit had in both games this year isn’t going away. And Flip’s team is hungry.
Am I a homer? Sure! And I feel more confident in the Pistons than I do in the Wings. But at the same time, the Wings just went a quarter of the season without losing in regulation. Who is going to beat them four out of 7? If you answered “Mikka Kiprusoff” I might listen. It’s going to be a fun ride.
GO WINGS! GO PISTONS!
The NHL Eastern Conference Retrospective will probably be up later today (as long as it stays quiet at work). This has to be done today though, so it got priority.
The picks, without a ton of analysis because frankly it’s too much work to do an NHL and NBA playoff preview. Let’s get the picks down on paper and the analysis will come later:
NHL Round One:
Detroit over Edmonton in 5—Too much fire power, better goaltending.
Dallas over Colorado in 4—Colorado is the weakest team in the tournament, Dallas is solid all around.
Calgary over Anaheim in 7—Battle of the 2 best goalies in the conference, Kipper is a little bit better.
San Jose over Nashville in 6—With Vokoun, this is the premier matchup in the first round, without him I don’t expect SJ to have a ton of trouble getting by the Preds.
Ottawa over Tampa in 7—With Hasek they breeze through this series. I don’t think Tampa has the goaltending to pull the upset though. Too much Alfredsson/Heatley/Spezza.
Carolina over Montreal in 7—Huet makes this a better series than expected.
Devils over Rangers in 6—The Devils are rolling, the Rags are struggling, Brodeur is the only legit playoff goalie in the East with Hasek’s absence.
Sabres over Flyers in 6—I don’t trust Philly’s goaltending at all.
NHL Round Two:
Detroit over San Jose in 6—Lidstrom and the Draper line shut down Thornton and Cheechoo. Not enough behind them for the Sharks.
Dallas over Calgary in 7—Great series ends in an overtime thriller (and I waffled about which team would win). Not enough scoring depth on the Flames.
Ottawa over Buffalo in 6—I hate Ryan Miller.
New Jersey over Carolina in 7—Should be an outstanding series. I like Brodeur over Gerber.
NHL Round Three:
Wings over Dallas in 6—They still have Turco’s number, and the Stars won’t get the benefit of seeing Ozzie in net or having shootouts.
New Jersey over Ottawa in 6—I just don’t see Ray Emery in the Finals. If Hasek comes back, we might have to revisit this one.
Stanley Cup Finals:
Wings over New Jersey in 6—Revenge for 1995. The Captain goes out on top.
NBA Round One:
Pistons over Bucks in 4—Get that train rolling right out of the gate.
Heat over Bulls in 6—Chicago is playing well, and Miami hasn’t been overly impressive as of late, but there’s still not enough to overcome a team that will probably have the two best players in any series they play in.
New Jersey over Indiana in 5—The Pacers aren’t a good team and New Jersey has been on a role lately.
Cleveland over Washington in 7—Lebron/Arenas should be a great matchup, and in the end James does the Pistons a favor and takes out the Wizards.
San Antonio over Sacramento in 5—Artest might get them a win, maybe two, but the Champs aren’t going down in Round 1.
Phoenix over LA in 6—I don’t think Kobe alone is enough to beat the Suns. He’ll make it fun though.
Nuggets over Clippers in 7—When in doubt, take the team with the best player.
Mavericks over Grizzlies in 5—Sets up the 2nd Round Conference Final matchup.
NBA Round Two:
Detroit over Cleveland in 5—LeBron makes it interesting, but they ain’t winning in Detroit and I don’t think they take two in a row from the Pistons in Cleveland. It won’t go more than 6.
New Jersey over Miami in 6—Wade/Shaq vs. Jefferson/Kidd/Carter should be fun to watch. I’ll take 3 over 2.
San Antonio over Dallas in 7—Home court makes all the difference. Great series.
Phoenix over Denver in 5—PHX gets some time to rest while SA/Dallas slug it out.
NBA Round Three:
Detroit over New Jersey in 6—I took 3 over 2, but I’ll take 5 over 3.
San Antonio over Phoenix in 7—Back to back slugfests for the defending Champions, setting up a rematch of last year’s Finals.
NBA Championship:
Detroit over San Antonio in 6—This year, the Pistons have home court, bitches. Detroit goes up 2-0, comes back home up 3-2 and takes care of business in Game 6. The rebounding edge Detroit had in both games this year isn’t going away. And Flip’s team is hungry.
Am I a homer? Sure! And I feel more confident in the Pistons than I do in the Wings. But at the same time, the Wings just went a quarter of the season without losing in regulation. Who is going to beat them four out of 7? If you answered “Mikka Kiprusoff” I might listen. It’s going to be a fun ride.
GO WINGS! GO PISTONS!
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