Here are my answers to the questions posted by Chris from Western College Hockey:
Give a brief summary of your team's season:
The Wolverines got off to a hot start and incredibly were ranked #1 in the country after 11 games. Things went downhill faster than Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila’s career from that point on, hitting a low point when the Wolverines were swept in the College Hockey Showcase once again, and then followed that up by getting swept at Miami the next weekend. They showed signs of snapping out of their funk on repeated occasions, but could never quite put together a complete weekend. A perfect example of this was when they smoked BGSU 6-1 and lost 5-2 the next night. The most alarming aspect of the 05-06 edition was their tendency to come out lifeless against rivals such as Michigan State, which they did on at least 2 occasions. I don’t believe most Wolverine fans expected the season to go any longer than it did once the brackets came out. With a different draw, this team could have won a game, but would have been hard pressed to make it to Milwaukee.
What were your thoughts on how your team's season ended?
It was expected. Slightly disappointing that they didn’t compete against NoDak any better than they did, but not at all surprising that they were one and done. As I said earlier, in any draw, this team would have been hard-pressed to win more than one game. North Dakota looked like world beaters down the stretch, and they were clearly the better team. In my opinion, they could have played that game at Yost, let alone a neutral site, and NoDak still would have won.
What offseason improvements can your team make to be better next year?
The biggest thing that Michigan could do to be successful next year, in my opinion, is to rededicate themselves to playing team defense. That was the biggest downfall of this team last year, and if our defensemen keep trying to play like forwards, and our forwards don’t try and get back on D, it’ll continue to be a downfall. In addition, some of our forwards need to look at themselves in the mirror and ask if they were really giving an honest effort night in and night out. I can think of two off the top of my head that wouldn’t be able to answer yes to that question.
Are there any players on your team that might leave for the pros during the offseason?
I guess a complete list would have to be: Jack Johnson, Andrew Cogliano, TJ Hensick, Matt Hunwick, Kevin Porter, Chad Kolarik. The latter two might be stretches, but then I didn’t see Mike Brown leaving either. Johnson says he’s coming back. Hensick and Hunwick have both indicated they’ll return, and as mgoblog pointed out, the Oilers don’t have an AHL team, plus they’ve got a couple other highly touted forward prospects. I think the best bets for defection this summer would be Brandon Naurato or Zac MacVoy. I’d hate to see either go, but I would completely understand it—especially if MacVoy transfers.
Which player(s) will be expected to carry the load for your team next season?
Hensick, Cogliano, Kolarik, Porter, Trevor Lewis, Jack Johnson, and Matt Hunwick. Hensick and Hunwick, as captains, need to have their best years as seniors. Hensick needs to be at least able to be mentioned as a Hobey candidate. Cogliano needs to show night in and night out why he was such a high draft pick, because there were far too many games this year where he didn’t. Kolarik and Porter need to put together solid seasons instead of half-seasons. I fully expect Trevor Lewis to come in and have an impact. And you all know what I think about Jack Johnson. I couldn’t be more excited to have him back for one more year. An improved Jack is a scary thought.
Which player will be most vital to your team's success next season?
Billy Sauer/Steve Jakiel. Whoever gets the starting nod will be the most important piece. BC and Wisconsin showed just how important an elite goaltender is in college hockey, but even having a solid netminder—with the offense I expect this team to have next year—would go a long way to getting Michigan back to the Frozen Four for the first time since the screw-job of the millennium in Buffalo.
What is your expectation for your team next season?
Frozen Four. If everyone returns, that isn’t an unrealistic goal, and anything less should be considered a disappointment. Is it an unfair standard? Probably. But this team needs to get its swagger back, and thus they need to have expectations for themselves above and beyond what might be “fair”. With so many guys potentially turning down big money and a chance to go to the pro ranks, it’d be disappointing to at least not see them contending for a national title. I believe Grand Rapids has a regional next year as well, so things set up nicely for a run at it.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Pumping Up My Ego
This is going to serve no other purpose than to make me feel slightly good about myself before we get to the ego-killing task of going through my pre-season NHL picks (Particularly the Eastern Conference).
Here's what I wrote back in July about Amir Johnson, after having watched him in Summer League action:
Last night: 18 minutes, 6-6 from the field, 2-2 from 3 pt range, 4-4 at the line, 18 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists.
Now, I don't want to say that he's going to make people forget about the Darko fiasco, but let's put it this way: Amir Johnson's career high in points (18) is now higher than Darko Milicic's (16). Just saying. And I'm not all that uncertain that his ongoing development didn't play some role in Dumars pulling the trigger on moving Darko.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the sky is the limit for Johnson. His athleticism is just off the chart, he can really move for a tall guy, and he's just a kid. I don't want to read too much into one game, but I've thought all along that Dumars might have struck gold with this kid.
Now it's time to revisit my NHL picks...
::hides eyes::
Here's what I wrote back in July about Amir Johnson, after having watched him in Summer League action:
Amir Johnson: This kid is going to be a player. It might not be anytime soon,
but he's gonna be something. He's big (6'9 or 6'10) but he's very very athletic.
The kid needs to get in the weight room because he's really lanky (he looked
like he's maybe 210 or so). But he's got hops. Man does he have hops. The kid
had 8 points on dunks off missed shots alone. He was crashing the offensive
boards, and taking it back up strong (or just dunking it as it came off the
rim). He can also run the floor. He's got good speed for a big guy. He also had
a couple nice passes. I came away very impressed. One thing about him....kid's
got the most jacked up shot I've ever seen. I didn't get to see him take any
outside shots, but I can see why the knock on him was that he gets shots blocked
by smaller players. His shot starts around his belly button and he releases it
by the time it's at eye level. Really really odd shooting motion. They're gonna
need to work on that. At the very worst, he'll be an energy guy off the bench
who can get the crowd fired up. Worst case he's Ronald Dupree. But I think he's
gonna be a player.
Last night: 18 minutes, 6-6 from the field, 2-2 from 3 pt range, 4-4 at the line, 18 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists.
Now, I don't want to say that he's going to make people forget about the Darko fiasco, but let's put it this way: Amir Johnson's career high in points (18) is now higher than Darko Milicic's (16). Just saying. And I'm not all that uncertain that his ongoing development didn't play some role in Dumars pulling the trigger on moving Darko.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the sky is the limit for Johnson. His athleticism is just off the chart, he can really move for a tall guy, and he's just a kid. I don't want to read too much into one game, but I've thought all along that Dumars might have struck gold with this kid.
Now it's time to revisit my NHL picks...
::hides eyes::
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Captains Announced
Matt Hunwick has been named Michigan's captain for next year with Hensick and Dest as alternates. I like the choices. Hunwick was the better option of our returning captains from last year. They can't very well strip Hensick of his A, and Dest has probably earned the right to get a letter.
Hopefully that's a good sign that Hensick and Hunwick will stick true to what they said in last week's Ann Arbor News article that I linked a couple posts back, and return for their season seasons. It sounds like Hunwick is for sure back, Hensick's been more quiet about it. I don't think I've seen any direct quotes from him on the matter.
Trevor Lewis's Des Moines Buccaneers advanced to the USHL Championship Series, sweeping last year's champion Cedar Rapids 3-0. The Bucs are 6-0 in the playoffs now, and Lewis leads his team in scoring with a 2-9--11 line and is +5. Aaron Palushaj has a 2-3--5 line and is +2.
According to MaizeOut on the Yost Post, Wisconsin has offered Pat Kane a scholarship starting next December when he'll become elgible. If that's a route he's interested in taking, the Wolverines absolutely have to get in on that. We were his favored college choice before, but it looks like he's falling into a Peter Mueller type situation, where he wants to play college hockey, but might not want to spend another year killing people with the U-18s. The OHL has been the rumored route as of late, but if Michigan could bring him in in December, that would be absolutely HUGE for this team. He'd add a fourth potentially great player to this lineup of forwards (Hensick, Lewis, and Cogliano are the others). It'll be interesting to see if Spath or Bob Miller can find anything out from their sources on this one.
Good news in the NHL. Right now San Jose is whupping on Anaheim, meaning that it's more likely that the Sharks will get the #5 seed and face Nashville in the first round, leaving Anaheim to take on Calgary. Meaning that either Kiprusoff or Giguere will exit the playoffs in the first round. With Vokoun already gone, that bodes well for Detroit's chances. We'd have to root hard for Calgary in that series (unless you'd rather face Giguere than see the Sharks), and then either Kiprusoff or Turco would exit before a potential matchup with the Red Wings. This is setting up nicely.
It's either Edmonton or Colorado in the first round. Probably Edmonton, unless Colorado manages to lose tonight to a Canucks team with nothing left to play for.
One music note: The John Butler Trio kicks ass live. Saw them last night at the Blind Pig. They're just phenomenal, even if it was like 95 degrees in the venue and everyone came away looking like they just went swimming. That was miserable, but the show was great. JBT played for 2 1/2 hours....great stuff.
Hopefully that's a good sign that Hensick and Hunwick will stick true to what they said in last week's Ann Arbor News article that I linked a couple posts back, and return for their season seasons. It sounds like Hunwick is for sure back, Hensick's been more quiet about it. I don't think I've seen any direct quotes from him on the matter.
Trevor Lewis's Des Moines Buccaneers advanced to the USHL Championship Series, sweeping last year's champion Cedar Rapids 3-0. The Bucs are 6-0 in the playoffs now, and Lewis leads his team in scoring with a 2-9--11 line and is +5. Aaron Palushaj has a 2-3--5 line and is +2.
According to MaizeOut on the Yost Post, Wisconsin has offered Pat Kane a scholarship starting next December when he'll become elgible. If that's a route he's interested in taking, the Wolverines absolutely have to get in on that. We were his favored college choice before, but it looks like he's falling into a Peter Mueller type situation, where he wants to play college hockey, but might not want to spend another year killing people with the U-18s. The OHL has been the rumored route as of late, but if Michigan could bring him in in December, that would be absolutely HUGE for this team. He'd add a fourth potentially great player to this lineup of forwards (Hensick, Lewis, and Cogliano are the others). It'll be interesting to see if Spath or Bob Miller can find anything out from their sources on this one.
Good news in the NHL. Right now San Jose is whupping on Anaheim, meaning that it's more likely that the Sharks will get the #5 seed and face Nashville in the first round, leaving Anaheim to take on Calgary. Meaning that either Kiprusoff or Giguere will exit the playoffs in the first round. With Vokoun already gone, that bodes well for Detroit's chances. We'd have to root hard for Calgary in that series (unless you'd rather face Giguere than see the Sharks), and then either Kiprusoff or Turco would exit before a potential matchup with the Red Wings. This is setting up nicely.
It's either Edmonton or Colorado in the first round. Probably Edmonton, unless Colorado manages to lose tonight to a Canucks team with nothing left to play for.
One music note: The John Butler Trio kicks ass live. Saw them last night at the Blind Pig. They're just phenomenal, even if it was like 95 degrees in the venue and everyone came away looking like they just went swimming. That was miserable, but the show was great. JBT played for 2 1/2 hours....great stuff.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
2 Things That Should Be Getting More Attention
Two things that I think it's odd no one is talking about, though one of which doesn’t surprise me all that much:
1) Why is no one talking about that absolute beat-down that the Pistons put on the Cavs last night? The AP article talks somewhat about it, but I figured it would at least merit a mention in ESPN’s Daily Dime. Nothing. It was a statement game for the Cavs, and a statement was made. Just not by them. They tried getting physical with Rasheed, didn’t work. Really though, here’s a team that’s getting so much hype as of late (OMG LBJ for MVP!!!) and they came into the Palace and just got absolutely punched in the mouth. I’m starting to think there’s only 4 teams that can win the NBA Championship this year, and it’s Detroit, San Antonio, New Jersey, and Dallas in that order. I know it’s going out on a major limb, but a repeat of last year’s Finals seems like destiny. Though the outcome would be different IMO.
2) Why is no one talking about how asinine it was for Cleveland to have LeBron James still in the game when he got hurt? They’re damn lucky that it doesn’t seem to be horribly serious, because it was something that I just knew was coming. When I flipped back to the game and it was 54-27, I told my roommate that they needed to get LBJ out right then. 1) The Pistons have only lost 1 home game in regulation all season. You’re not coming from 27 points down against them, with LeBron or without. 2) It was a pretty meaningless game for the Cavs, except to be trying to send a message to Detroit. But at 54-27, it’s not looking so good for the chances of sending one. Get him out, call it a day, and move on to the next game. 3) Wasn’t the big controversy a couple days ago that they were playing LBJ 40 minutes a game after they said they were going to limit his minutes? Well that was a perfect situation to give him a nice 20 minute night. You’re getting smoked. He’s not bringing you back. What’s the point?
Can anyone imagine what the boards would be like today if Lloyd or (God forbid) Tommy had made a similar gaffe? Lord knows people complained enough after Lester played 2 minutes and then sat for another month or two. Was there anything to be gained by leaving LeBron in that game, apart from maybe only losing by 15 instead of 30?
I’m just surprised that neither of those issues is garnering major media attention from what I’ve seen. The former doesn’t surprise me as much because ESPN never has anything positive to say about Detroit, but Cleveland could have very easily just seen its playoff hopes go up in smoke because of an overall pretty stupid coaching move.
1) Why is no one talking about that absolute beat-down that the Pistons put on the Cavs last night? The AP article talks somewhat about it, but I figured it would at least merit a mention in ESPN’s Daily Dime. Nothing. It was a statement game for the Cavs, and a statement was made. Just not by them. They tried getting physical with Rasheed, didn’t work. Really though, here’s a team that’s getting so much hype as of late (OMG LBJ for MVP!!!) and they came into the Palace and just got absolutely punched in the mouth. I’m starting to think there’s only 4 teams that can win the NBA Championship this year, and it’s Detroit, San Antonio, New Jersey, and Dallas in that order. I know it’s going out on a major limb, but a repeat of last year’s Finals seems like destiny. Though the outcome would be different IMO.
2) Why is no one talking about how asinine it was for Cleveland to have LeBron James still in the game when he got hurt? They’re damn lucky that it doesn’t seem to be horribly serious, because it was something that I just knew was coming. When I flipped back to the game and it was 54-27, I told my roommate that they needed to get LBJ out right then. 1) The Pistons have only lost 1 home game in regulation all season. You’re not coming from 27 points down against them, with LeBron or without. 2) It was a pretty meaningless game for the Cavs, except to be trying to send a message to Detroit. But at 54-27, it’s not looking so good for the chances of sending one. Get him out, call it a day, and move on to the next game. 3) Wasn’t the big controversy a couple days ago that they were playing LBJ 40 minutes a game after they said they were going to limit his minutes? Well that was a perfect situation to give him a nice 20 minute night. You’re getting smoked. He’s not bringing you back. What’s the point?
Can anyone imagine what the boards would be like today if Lloyd or (God forbid) Tommy had made a similar gaffe? Lord knows people complained enough after Lester played 2 minutes and then sat for another month or two. Was there anything to be gained by leaving LeBron in that game, apart from maybe only losing by 15 instead of 30?
I’m just surprised that neither of those issues is garnering major media attention from what I’ve seen. The former doesn’t surprise me as much because ESPN never has anything positive to say about Detroit, but Cleveland could have very easily just seen its playoff hopes go up in smoke because of an overall pretty stupid coaching move.
Monday, April 10, 2006
Friday, April 07, 2006
Breaking it Down: Wings vs. Pistons
With the NHL and NBA regular seasons winding down, it appears that both Detroit teams are going to have the best record in their respective leagues heading into the playoffs. The Pistons currently have 3 games up on the Spurs with 7 to play, and the Wings have a 4 point lead over Ottawa with a game in hand, and 6 for the Senators to play.
So the question is, with both teams heading into the playoffs as the favorite to take home the hardware, who stands a better chance of giving us a parade downtown this summer? Let’s break it down:
Health:
The Pistons have had a remarkable (and well-documented) string of good luck in the injury department. Their top six players have missed an incredible ZERO man-games to injury this year after having completed relatively injury-free seasons the past two seasons as well. But those in the media (::cough:: BillSimmons ::cough::) who knock their accomplishments by pointing out that Wade was hurt last year, Malone was hurt in the Finals, etc. seem to forget that without Billups rolling his ankle on Eric Snow’s foot, the Pistons could be looking to go to a fourth straight NBA Finals this year (Yes they got swept by Jersey, but the first two games were both very, very close and with a healthy Billups, they likely are up 2-0 going back to Jersey instead of down 2-0). So the Pistons know all too well what injuries can do to a title run.
The Wings have a high amount of man-games missed due to injury this year, but that number is skewed by Nik Kronwall and Jiri Fischer being out for most of the season. Legace, Lang, and Samuelsson have all had their bumps and bruises, but apart from Fischer, everyone is expected to be around for the playoffs. They’re being cautious currently with injuries to Schneider and Datsyuk, but neither appear to be far too serious and both players can use the rest anyway.
Edge: Even
Are They Playoff Ready?
With injuries (knock on wood) not a factor on either team, we move now to trying to figure out if the teams are playoff ready. With the Pistons, it’s a no-brainer. They’ve had a very successful run in the last 3 post-seasons, including a championship and another Finals appearance. The only question marks are will they be able to lock down on defense when it matters with Flip behind the bench instead of LB (indications lately have been yes), will they be able to flip the switch when they haven’t played a meaningful game in the better part of two months, and will the wear and tear on the starters get to them (we’ll get to that below). This team knows how to get it done come playoff time and I expect their postseason experience will keep serving them well this postseason. It has to be mentioned as well that Flip Saunders has not had a great deal of success in the post-season. Or a decent deal of success…The again, the West was really, really tough when Minnesota had their best teams.
It’s a little more of a gray area with the Wings. They haven’t gotten out of the second round since Scotty Bowman laced up his skates for a final skate with Lord Stanley’s Cup. Datsyuk hasn’t registered a goal in the last two postseasons. The Wings just haven’t shown an ability to get past a trapping team with a quality goaltender as of late.
That was under Ray Rhodes…I mean Dave Lewis, though. If President’s Trophies meant anything of consequence, Lewis would still be the coach of this team. Mike Babcock has already proved that he can take a team to the Finals (Anaheim 2003). And, unlike Lewis, he appears to actually be coaching during the game. The players love him, and he’s shown an uncanny knack for putting line combinations together that are immediately effective.
Manny Legace is going in as the starter once again. He got a brief stint as starter during the 2004 playoffs before getting scapegoated after the Wings struggled in the early-going against Nashville. He wasn’t bad in those games, he just didn’t get a lot of help, and the gum-chewer made a change for the sake of making a change. He’s got a Stanley Cup winner behind him, and if he falters, the Wings have the luxury of putting in a guy who can allow 90-footers with the best of them (to be fair, Osgood was absolutely outstanding in their win over Calgary a few nights ago).
The success of the Wings in the postseason will come down to how ready they are to win ugly playoff-style hockey games, if the refs are willing to keep clamping down on obstruction, and if they get anything out of their goaltending.
Edge: Pistons
Competition:
How many teams in each league can legitimately challenge for the Championship? In the NBA, you’ve got the Pistons, Nets, Spurs, Heat, Mavericks, and maybe the Cavaliers (though I hesitate mentioning them when they’ll just be happy to make the playoffs). In the NHL, you’ve got the Wings, Stars, Flames, Predators, Mighty Ducks, Senators, and Hurricanes at the bare, bare minimum. I think you also have to include the Sharks, Flyers, Devils, Sabres and Rangers are teams that could at least make a decent run into the playoffs. With the Mighty Ducks and Flames in the Finals the last two seasons, and the Wild making the conference championship, it just goes to show you can’t discount a team getting a hot goalie and making a run.
The Wings are in a nice position as it appears they won’t have to deal with the Flames or Stars until the third round, but a first-round matchup with the Sharks would be far more difficult than the team with the best record in the league should get. Apart from the Sharks, the teams at the bottom of the West aren’t scary.
It also sets up nice for the Pistons, as they won’t have to see Miami or New Jersey until the Eastern Conference Finals. Getting the #1 seed is important, no? A second round matchup with the Cavs or Wizards could be interesting though. The Pistons have had their troubles this year with each of those teams.
Edge: Pistons. Yes, one player can make all the difference in the NBA, but the Pistons start 4 All-Stars. We’ve seen it time and time again how a hot goalie can upset the balance of an entire postseason, and you have to worry about so many average teams with great goalies in the NHL.
Depth:
The Pistons have the best starting five in the league, and one of the best sixth-men in basketball in McDyess. After that, things start to get a little shaky. Tony Delk has been another genius pickup by Joe Dumars. He has added scoring off the bench that we weren’t getting from Carlos Arroyo. Lindsey can still lock down with the best of them and hit a three when he needs to. Mo Evans is an energy guy. I would have liked to have seen more of Carlos Delfino as he’s been great in flashes. Dale Davis is there for one thing only…to buy minutes and fouls if they play Shaq. It’s not a great bench, but with the acquisition of Delk, I’m not sure that they aren’t at least a little better off than they were last year.
The Wings on the other hand, have ten guys with thirty or more points (Draper may make it 11), and seven guys with 20+ goals (Williams could be 8). Add in the 1989 version of Steve Yzerman, who has been Detroit’s best player for the last two or three weeks and you’ve got a team with scary depth up front. They’ve got a plethora of puck-moving defensemen, and they’ve got a Stanley Cup winning goalie (albeit the Wings won in spite of him) on their bench. This team is deep, and they’re in a much better position to deal with an injury than they were two years ago when Robert Lang’s hand injury ended their chances of beating Calgary.
Edge: Red Wings
Misc. Factors:
Special teams plays a huge factor in the NHL, and the Wings are toward the top of both the Power Play and the Penalty Kill. They have the #1 power play in the league (and have all season) and are #3 on the PK (though they’ll be #1 amongst playoff teams in the West). With the increase in the number of penalties throughout hockey (we’ll see if it lasts) it can’t hurt to be amongst the best whether you’re killing a penalty, or playing a man up. They have failed to score a PPG in just 17 games this season (though four of those have come in the last 6 games).
The Wings also have had a record-breaking season on the road this year. With one more victory, they will have set a new NHL mark for road wins in a season. They’re great at home, but they admittedly play a less flashy game on the road, and just go about their business.
The Pistons are almost automatic at home, with just one loss the entire season coming in regulation at the Palace (and at 34-3 record overall). With home court advantage for the entire playoffs nearly locked up, you gotta like that statistic.
Edge: Even. The Wings are good at home and great on the road. The Pistons are great at home and good on the road. They’re both in great shape.
Overall:
As the NHL and NBA seasons have gone on, I’ve started to feel more and more that I really like the Wings’ chances better than the Pistons. But a big part of that has been that the Pistons have looked completely disinterested for the better part of a month and a half. I don’t doubt that a team of their caliber can flip the switch when they want to. That said, it’s not like they’ve been losing a lot of games in the process. The Wings have been workmanlike since the Olympics and have turned a once-close division fight with Nashville into a laugher.
After breaking it down, I really do like both teams’ chances to get rings this summer, but due to the quality of the competition in the respective leagues, and their amount of recent post-season experience, I’ll give the overall edge to:
Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetroit Basssssssssssketballlllllllllllllll!
In all reality though, its:
Edge: Detroit Sports Fans
So the question is, with both teams heading into the playoffs as the favorite to take home the hardware, who stands a better chance of giving us a parade downtown this summer? Let’s break it down:
Health:
The Pistons have had a remarkable (and well-documented) string of good luck in the injury department. Their top six players have missed an incredible ZERO man-games to injury this year after having completed relatively injury-free seasons the past two seasons as well. But those in the media (::cough:: BillSimmons ::cough::) who knock their accomplishments by pointing out that Wade was hurt last year, Malone was hurt in the Finals, etc. seem to forget that without Billups rolling his ankle on Eric Snow’s foot, the Pistons could be looking to go to a fourth straight NBA Finals this year (Yes they got swept by Jersey, but the first two games were both very, very close and with a healthy Billups, they likely are up 2-0 going back to Jersey instead of down 2-0). So the Pistons know all too well what injuries can do to a title run.
The Wings have a high amount of man-games missed due to injury this year, but that number is skewed by Nik Kronwall and Jiri Fischer being out for most of the season. Legace, Lang, and Samuelsson have all had their bumps and bruises, but apart from Fischer, everyone is expected to be around for the playoffs. They’re being cautious currently with injuries to Schneider and Datsyuk, but neither appear to be far too serious and both players can use the rest anyway.
Edge: Even
Are They Playoff Ready?
With injuries (knock on wood) not a factor on either team, we move now to trying to figure out if the teams are playoff ready. With the Pistons, it’s a no-brainer. They’ve had a very successful run in the last 3 post-seasons, including a championship and another Finals appearance. The only question marks are will they be able to lock down on defense when it matters with Flip behind the bench instead of LB (indications lately have been yes), will they be able to flip the switch when they haven’t played a meaningful game in the better part of two months, and will the wear and tear on the starters get to them (we’ll get to that below). This team knows how to get it done come playoff time and I expect their postseason experience will keep serving them well this postseason. It has to be mentioned as well that Flip Saunders has not had a great deal of success in the post-season. Or a decent deal of success…The again, the West was really, really tough when Minnesota had their best teams.
It’s a little more of a gray area with the Wings. They haven’t gotten out of the second round since Scotty Bowman laced up his skates for a final skate with Lord Stanley’s Cup. Datsyuk hasn’t registered a goal in the last two postseasons. The Wings just haven’t shown an ability to get past a trapping team with a quality goaltender as of late.
That was under Ray Rhodes…I mean Dave Lewis, though. If President’s Trophies meant anything of consequence, Lewis would still be the coach of this team. Mike Babcock has already proved that he can take a team to the Finals (Anaheim 2003). And, unlike Lewis, he appears to actually be coaching during the game. The players love him, and he’s shown an uncanny knack for putting line combinations together that are immediately effective.
Manny Legace is going in as the starter once again. He got a brief stint as starter during the 2004 playoffs before getting scapegoated after the Wings struggled in the early-going against Nashville. He wasn’t bad in those games, he just didn’t get a lot of help, and the gum-chewer made a change for the sake of making a change. He’s got a Stanley Cup winner behind him, and if he falters, the Wings have the luxury of putting in a guy who can allow 90-footers with the best of them (to be fair, Osgood was absolutely outstanding in their win over Calgary a few nights ago).
The success of the Wings in the postseason will come down to how ready they are to win ugly playoff-style hockey games, if the refs are willing to keep clamping down on obstruction, and if they get anything out of their goaltending.
Edge: Pistons
Competition:
How many teams in each league can legitimately challenge for the Championship? In the NBA, you’ve got the Pistons, Nets, Spurs, Heat, Mavericks, and maybe the Cavaliers (though I hesitate mentioning them when they’ll just be happy to make the playoffs). In the NHL, you’ve got the Wings, Stars, Flames, Predators, Mighty Ducks, Senators, and Hurricanes at the bare, bare minimum. I think you also have to include the Sharks, Flyers, Devils, Sabres and Rangers are teams that could at least make a decent run into the playoffs. With the Mighty Ducks and Flames in the Finals the last two seasons, and the Wild making the conference championship, it just goes to show you can’t discount a team getting a hot goalie and making a run.
The Wings are in a nice position as it appears they won’t have to deal with the Flames or Stars until the third round, but a first-round matchup with the Sharks would be far more difficult than the team with the best record in the league should get. Apart from the Sharks, the teams at the bottom of the West aren’t scary.
It also sets up nice for the Pistons, as they won’t have to see Miami or New Jersey until the Eastern Conference Finals. Getting the #1 seed is important, no? A second round matchup with the Cavs or Wizards could be interesting though. The Pistons have had their troubles this year with each of those teams.
Edge: Pistons. Yes, one player can make all the difference in the NBA, but the Pistons start 4 All-Stars. We’ve seen it time and time again how a hot goalie can upset the balance of an entire postseason, and you have to worry about so many average teams with great goalies in the NHL.
Depth:
The Pistons have the best starting five in the league, and one of the best sixth-men in basketball in McDyess. After that, things start to get a little shaky. Tony Delk has been another genius pickup by Joe Dumars. He has added scoring off the bench that we weren’t getting from Carlos Arroyo. Lindsey can still lock down with the best of them and hit a three when he needs to. Mo Evans is an energy guy. I would have liked to have seen more of Carlos Delfino as he’s been great in flashes. Dale Davis is there for one thing only…to buy minutes and fouls if they play Shaq. It’s not a great bench, but with the acquisition of Delk, I’m not sure that they aren’t at least a little better off than they were last year.
The Wings on the other hand, have ten guys with thirty or more points (Draper may make it 11), and seven guys with 20+ goals (Williams could be 8). Add in the 1989 version of Steve Yzerman, who has been Detroit’s best player for the last two or three weeks and you’ve got a team with scary depth up front. They’ve got a plethora of puck-moving defensemen, and they’ve got a Stanley Cup winning goalie (albeit the Wings won in spite of him) on their bench. This team is deep, and they’re in a much better position to deal with an injury than they were two years ago when Robert Lang’s hand injury ended their chances of beating Calgary.
Edge: Red Wings
Misc. Factors:
Special teams plays a huge factor in the NHL, and the Wings are toward the top of both the Power Play and the Penalty Kill. They have the #1 power play in the league (and have all season) and are #3 on the PK (though they’ll be #1 amongst playoff teams in the West). With the increase in the number of penalties throughout hockey (we’ll see if it lasts) it can’t hurt to be amongst the best whether you’re killing a penalty, or playing a man up. They have failed to score a PPG in just 17 games this season (though four of those have come in the last 6 games).
The Wings also have had a record-breaking season on the road this year. With one more victory, they will have set a new NHL mark for road wins in a season. They’re great at home, but they admittedly play a less flashy game on the road, and just go about their business.
The Pistons are almost automatic at home, with just one loss the entire season coming in regulation at the Palace (and at 34-3 record overall). With home court advantage for the entire playoffs nearly locked up, you gotta like that statistic.
Edge: Even. The Wings are good at home and great on the road. The Pistons are great at home and good on the road. They’re both in great shape.
Overall:
As the NHL and NBA seasons have gone on, I’ve started to feel more and more that I really like the Wings’ chances better than the Pistons. But a big part of that has been that the Pistons have looked completely disinterested for the better part of a month and a half. I don’t doubt that a team of their caliber can flip the switch when they want to. That said, it’s not like they’ve been losing a lot of games in the process. The Wings have been workmanlike since the Olympics and have turned a once-close division fight with Nashville into a laugher.
After breaking it down, I really do like both teams’ chances to get rings this summer, but due to the quality of the competition in the respective leagues, and their amount of recent post-season experience, I’ll give the overall edge to:
Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetroit Basssssssssssketballlllllllllllllll!
In all reality though, its:
Edge: Detroit Sports Fans
Friday, March 31, 2006
Final Assessment: The Forwards
#7 T.J. Hensick: Diving right into this, by talking about the most enigmatic player on the team. Not to compare their abilities, but doesn't TJ just have that Sergei Fedorov feel about him in that he could be the best player in the country if he'd just bring it every night. All too often it seems like he's coasting out there. But when he comes to play, watch out! He still put up 50+ points and was top 10 in the nation in scoring, but after being a Hobey candidate last year, this season still has to go down as a disappointment. According to Spath (and Red), Hensick admitted to Red that he may have let the team down this year and he has already seemed to take his new leadership role to heart. Time will tell, but hopefully he's poised for a huge senior year if he comes back.
Final Grade: B...Part of me wants to go lower, but you just can't argue with top 10 in the country in scoring.
#9 Andrew Cogliano: 28 points in 39 games is not bad for a freshman at all, but I expected so much more. Take a look at his game by game stats and you see a player that was streakier than Will Ferrell in Old School. Check out his season: 3 games with no points, then points in 8 of 9 games (17 points in that span), 3 games with no points, 2 games with a point in each, no points in 5 of 6 (3 points total), then just six points in the remaining 16 games. Apart from that hot streak early on in the year, he had just 11 points in 30 games. He's waaaay too talented to only be putting up a point every three games. Also he was a -11 (2nd worst on the team), an abysmal 42% on faceoffs, and he was runner up for the Paul Kariya memorial "Fish Out of Water Award For Flopping" to Robbie Earl. In his streaks he proved to be a very dangerous player however, and one of two forwards on our team that could change the game on any shift. He has incredible vision and he definitely is capable of being a top-line player on this level. Supposedly there's at least one person in the Oilers organization that wants to sign him, but he's crazy if he goes. He hasn't come close to dominating on this level yet, he's not going to be able to when a lot of guys are as fast as he is.
Final Grade: C+ (That may be a tad harsh, but I can't put up with players that dive...it drives me nuts)
#10 Travis Turnbull: I love Turnbull. He had a rough stretch in the 2nd third of the season, but apart from that he proved to be a very capable player for us. He was one of our best forwards out of the gate, and IMO was one of our best forwards at the end of the year. 18 points isn't a bad number for a player that does what he does. He did a nice job on the PK, and threw one of the best hits of the season during the North Dakota game. He's a four-year guy, and he's a guy that we're going to be very happy to have for that long.
Final Grade: B+
#11 Kevin Porter: He and Kolarik were mirror images of each other. Kolarik was useless to start the season and Porter disappeared in the second half. He still put together a nice year with 38 points in 39 games, and was tied for the team lead in goals, but he could have doubled his total of 17 if he could have hit an empty net. All too often, he disappeared along with Hensick. There's no reason that line shouldn't have been more productive than they were. A full season out of him would have gone a long well to helping this team. I still like his game an awful lot, and fully expect him to bounce back in his junior year.
Final Grade: B-
#12 Zac MacVoy: Every year there seems to be a guy that just can't get a break on this year. One year it was Nick Martens, this year it was MacVoy. He just never seemed to get on the ice, and yet Tyler Swystun was out there for all but 5 games. He did get to play 20 games, but I'd be shocked if he had more than 3 hours of total ice time. I like Zac. I think he could be a nice player for us given the chance, but sadly he may have to go elsewhere to get a shot. I think he may have just been playing at too heavy of a weight (especially for a kid that wasn't a good skater to start with). He might be smart to drop some pounds in the offseason. He didn't make the most of his limited opportunities though, and Red went with the guy with the higher ceiling I guess.
Final Grade: C
#14 Brandon Kaleniecki: No one can say he and Ebbett didn't go out playing their best hockey. Kal made up half of the heart and soul of this team, and he deserved a lot better of a final tournament run than he got. He had points in 17 of the last 23 games, including streaks of points in 8 of 9 games and 6 of 7 games. "The Line" of him, Ebbett and Kolarik carried Michigan for the last 2 months of the season. If the rest of the team had half the heart that Kal, Ebbett and Johnson have, Michigan would have been a lot better off.
Final Grade: A
#16 David Rohlfs: Versatility. There aren't too many guys that could move from forward back to defense back to forward and not miss a beat. He was our best defenseman in his first game as a defensman (at BGSU 2 seasons ago), and his first series back up at forward this year, he was probably our best forward. He added some much needed size up front with the injury to Bailey and the loss of Moss and Ryznar to graduation. Only 2 goals and 12 points, but he's never going to be a big offensive threat. He does a lot of the dirty work, and I like what he brings to the table.
Final Grade: B
#18 Tim Miller: I love Timmy Miller. Once Turnbull fell off from his fast start, Miller really started to play well. Great penalty killer, responsible in his own end, he can hit, and he's not clueless offensively. Just a good all-around guy that (like Turnbull) we're going to be happy to have for four years. He's one of the unsung guys of the team because he's not going to put up the flashy numbers or be a high draft pick. But he's just solid, solid, solid and you can put him out there in any situation. I'm very happy with him.
Final Grade: B+
#19 Andrew Ebbett: He channeled Jed Ortmeyer this year. He led this team by example the entire year, but the guys never seemed to get the message. I feel bad for the guy because I really don't know that there's anything more that he could have done as captain. Had points in an astounding 14 of our last 16 games and was our best faceoff guy. In addition, I'm not sure if there was anyone that single-handedly killed off more minute-long-stretches of penalties by himself than Ebbett did. You can't say too much more about the kid than he got it done on offense, he got it done on defense, he got it done on special teams. He's the last person you can blame for this season.
Final Grade: A
#20 Tyler Swystun: Ok, so the book on him was that he needed another year. But usually when guys are a little young or whatever, they'll at least show flashes once in awhile. Apart from one weekend late in the season, Swystun really didn't. I think he set a record for "number of outlet passes hitting the heel of his stick and going down the ice for icings". He had the worst +/- on the team and only had 1 point more than Tim Cook. (Side note: The Wings just lost to the Blackhawks in OT, letting Osgood complete the tri-fecta of losing to Chicago, Columbus and St. Louis this year. Glad we brought him back) He may eventually be a quality player, but this year he showed next to nothing.
Final Grade: D
#21 Jason Bailey: I really would have liked to have seen a full season out of him. Every time he hit his stride, it seemed like another annoying injury would come up for him. I love his hitting, I love his grit, and he's not a huge scorer, but he can put the puck in the net every now and then. He, Miller and Turnbull (or Fardig?) might be a nice grind line to put together. They'd be annoying to play against, that's for sure. Hopefully injuries won't be an ongoing thing for him.
Final Grade: B
#22 Brandon Naurato: I didn't really expect all that much out of him, but he really had some nice games. He supposedly has one of the best snapshots on the team, but several of his goals were of the garbage variety, not due to that great shot. He can really fire it though. He disappeared down the stretch with no points after January and a slew of DNPs. He struck me as a little more soft than he should be. He'll be a decent guy to have around throughout his career.
Final Grade: C+
#24 Chad Kolarik: The opposite of Porter. Put up ok numbers but wasn't worth 2 craps until the Mich Tech game (and was invisible in the month of December apart from the last game). For awhile he had me wondering if sophomore slumps were exclusive to players named Chad from Pennsylvania. Once they got him with Ebbett and Kal though, things really took off for him. He had 10 multi-point games starting with the consolation game in the GLI, and was a 1/3 of the line that carried the team. 38 points in 41 games and a decent +12. Not a huge year, but one that he should be able to build off of.
Final Grade: B+
#26 Danny Fardig: The Digger is what he is. A guy that's going to work hard almost every shift, be annoying to play against, and provide some energy when the team is lacking it. I did not expect him to be a mainstay in the lineup, but there he was for 38 of our 41 games. He was almost as bad as Cogliano on draws (42.6%) but apart from that he's a really nice guy to have on your fourth line.
Final Grade: B
Chris Fragner and Morgan Ward get Incompletes obviously, though Fragner gets points off for an incredibly stupid penalty which started the ball rolling downhill in the CC game...
Curious to hear what people think....Agree? Disagree?
(Random Stat That Jim Gaffigan Made Me Think About: Spell Check caught 73 words in this post, 2 of them were legit corrections. HA SPELL CHECK!)
Final Grade: B...Part of me wants to go lower, but you just can't argue with top 10 in the country in scoring.
#9 Andrew Cogliano: 28 points in 39 games is not bad for a freshman at all, but I expected so much more. Take a look at his game by game stats and you see a player that was streakier than Will Ferrell in Old School. Check out his season: 3 games with no points, then points in 8 of 9 games (17 points in that span), 3 games with no points, 2 games with a point in each, no points in 5 of 6 (3 points total), then just six points in the remaining 16 games. Apart from that hot streak early on in the year, he had just 11 points in 30 games. He's waaaay too talented to only be putting up a point every three games. Also he was a -11 (2nd worst on the team), an abysmal 42% on faceoffs, and he was runner up for the Paul Kariya memorial "Fish Out of Water Award For Flopping" to Robbie Earl. In his streaks he proved to be a very dangerous player however, and one of two forwards on our team that could change the game on any shift. He has incredible vision and he definitely is capable of being a top-line player on this level. Supposedly there's at least one person in the Oilers organization that wants to sign him, but he's crazy if he goes. He hasn't come close to dominating on this level yet, he's not going to be able to when a lot of guys are as fast as he is.
Final Grade: C+ (That may be a tad harsh, but I can't put up with players that dive...it drives me nuts)
#10 Travis Turnbull: I love Turnbull. He had a rough stretch in the 2nd third of the season, but apart from that he proved to be a very capable player for us. He was one of our best forwards out of the gate, and IMO was one of our best forwards at the end of the year. 18 points isn't a bad number for a player that does what he does. He did a nice job on the PK, and threw one of the best hits of the season during the North Dakota game. He's a four-year guy, and he's a guy that we're going to be very happy to have for that long.
Final Grade: B+
#11 Kevin Porter: He and Kolarik were mirror images of each other. Kolarik was useless to start the season and Porter disappeared in the second half. He still put together a nice year with 38 points in 39 games, and was tied for the team lead in goals, but he could have doubled his total of 17 if he could have hit an empty net. All too often, he disappeared along with Hensick. There's no reason that line shouldn't have been more productive than they were. A full season out of him would have gone a long well to helping this team. I still like his game an awful lot, and fully expect him to bounce back in his junior year.
Final Grade: B-
#12 Zac MacVoy: Every year there seems to be a guy that just can't get a break on this year. One year it was Nick Martens, this year it was MacVoy. He just never seemed to get on the ice, and yet Tyler Swystun was out there for all but 5 games. He did get to play 20 games, but I'd be shocked if he had more than 3 hours of total ice time. I like Zac. I think he could be a nice player for us given the chance, but sadly he may have to go elsewhere to get a shot. I think he may have just been playing at too heavy of a weight (especially for a kid that wasn't a good skater to start with). He might be smart to drop some pounds in the offseason. He didn't make the most of his limited opportunities though, and Red went with the guy with the higher ceiling I guess.
Final Grade: C
#14 Brandon Kaleniecki: No one can say he and Ebbett didn't go out playing their best hockey. Kal made up half of the heart and soul of this team, and he deserved a lot better of a final tournament run than he got. He had points in 17 of the last 23 games, including streaks of points in 8 of 9 games and 6 of 7 games. "The Line" of him, Ebbett and Kolarik carried Michigan for the last 2 months of the season. If the rest of the team had half the heart that Kal, Ebbett and Johnson have, Michigan would have been a lot better off.
Final Grade: A
#16 David Rohlfs: Versatility. There aren't too many guys that could move from forward back to defense back to forward and not miss a beat. He was our best defenseman in his first game as a defensman (at BGSU 2 seasons ago), and his first series back up at forward this year, he was probably our best forward. He added some much needed size up front with the injury to Bailey and the loss of Moss and Ryznar to graduation. Only 2 goals and 12 points, but he's never going to be a big offensive threat. He does a lot of the dirty work, and I like what he brings to the table.
Final Grade: B
#18 Tim Miller: I love Timmy Miller. Once Turnbull fell off from his fast start, Miller really started to play well. Great penalty killer, responsible in his own end, he can hit, and he's not clueless offensively. Just a good all-around guy that (like Turnbull) we're going to be happy to have for four years. He's one of the unsung guys of the team because he's not going to put up the flashy numbers or be a high draft pick. But he's just solid, solid, solid and you can put him out there in any situation. I'm very happy with him.
Final Grade: B+
#19 Andrew Ebbett: He channeled Jed Ortmeyer this year. He led this team by example the entire year, but the guys never seemed to get the message. I feel bad for the guy because I really don't know that there's anything more that he could have done as captain. Had points in an astounding 14 of our last 16 games and was our best faceoff guy. In addition, I'm not sure if there was anyone that single-handedly killed off more minute-long-stretches of penalties by himself than Ebbett did. You can't say too much more about the kid than he got it done on offense, he got it done on defense, he got it done on special teams. He's the last person you can blame for this season.
Final Grade: A
#20 Tyler Swystun: Ok, so the book on him was that he needed another year. But usually when guys are a little young or whatever, they'll at least show flashes once in awhile. Apart from one weekend late in the season, Swystun really didn't. I think he set a record for "number of outlet passes hitting the heel of his stick and going down the ice for icings". He had the worst +/- on the team and only had 1 point more than Tim Cook. (Side note: The Wings just lost to the Blackhawks in OT, letting Osgood complete the tri-fecta of losing to Chicago, Columbus and St. Louis this year. Glad we brought him back) He may eventually be a quality player, but this year he showed next to nothing.
Final Grade: D
#21 Jason Bailey: I really would have liked to have seen a full season out of him. Every time he hit his stride, it seemed like another annoying injury would come up for him. I love his hitting, I love his grit, and he's not a huge scorer, but he can put the puck in the net every now and then. He, Miller and Turnbull (or Fardig?) might be a nice grind line to put together. They'd be annoying to play against, that's for sure. Hopefully injuries won't be an ongoing thing for him.
Final Grade: B
#22 Brandon Naurato: I didn't really expect all that much out of him, but he really had some nice games. He supposedly has one of the best snapshots on the team, but several of his goals were of the garbage variety, not due to that great shot. He can really fire it though. He disappeared down the stretch with no points after January and a slew of DNPs. He struck me as a little more soft than he should be. He'll be a decent guy to have around throughout his career.
Final Grade: C+
#24 Chad Kolarik: The opposite of Porter. Put up ok numbers but wasn't worth 2 craps until the Mich Tech game (and was invisible in the month of December apart from the last game). For awhile he had me wondering if sophomore slumps were exclusive to players named Chad from Pennsylvania. Once they got him with Ebbett and Kal though, things really took off for him. He had 10 multi-point games starting with the consolation game in the GLI, and was a 1/3 of the line that carried the team. 38 points in 41 games and a decent +12. Not a huge year, but one that he should be able to build off of.
Final Grade: B+
#26 Danny Fardig: The Digger is what he is. A guy that's going to work hard almost every shift, be annoying to play against, and provide some energy when the team is lacking it. I did not expect him to be a mainstay in the lineup, but there he was for 38 of our 41 games. He was almost as bad as Cogliano on draws (42.6%) but apart from that he's a really nice guy to have on your fourth line.
Final Grade: B
Chris Fragner and Morgan Ward get Incompletes obviously, though Fragner gets points off for an incredibly stupid penalty which started the ball rolling downhill in the CC game...
Curious to hear what people think....Agree? Disagree?
(Random Stat That Jim Gaffigan Made Me Think About: Spell Check caught 73 words in this post, 2 of them were legit corrections. HA SPELL CHECK!)
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